DETROIT – A few days ago, I was talking to my dad when he brought up my early coverage of the Detroit Tigers.
“You’ve really got me drinking the Kool-Aid this year.”
One thing you should know about my dad: He’s an admitted Kool-Aid drinker by nature. It doesn’t take a whole lot to make him optimistic at the start of a Detroit or Michigan season.
But still, it got me thinking, “Do I need to let off the gas a little bit?”
So I took a peek back. In the past 10 days, I’ve written that the Tigers’ starting rotation “could be pretty good.” I’ve called the bullpen a “secret weapon.” I broke down the Tigers’ chances to win the AL Central Division and focused on the upside of Parker Meadows.
OK, maybe it’s time for a reality check.
The truth is, I do feel some optimism for the upcoming season. Maybe it’s because I just spent four months covering the best Lions team of my lifetime, and if they can do it, anyone can, right?
Or maybe this roster is just more exciting by comparison. Let’s face it: The last eight years of Tigers baseball have been pretty dreadful.
But even with all the optimism, I’m not going to pick the Tigers to win the AL Central. It wouldn’t shock me if they did, but I’m not expecting it. And I want to make sure my coverage reflects that.
Here are my primary reasons for concern.
Pitching injuries
I’m pretty high on the Tigers’ pitching staff as a whole -- from Cy Young contender (or maybe even a favorite?) Tarik Skubal to a deep group of high-leverage relievers.
If everyone stays healthy, the best-case scenario for the Tigers is really exciting. Skubal, Maeda, and Flaherty -- assuming Chris Fetter can work some magic -- should be a strong and reliable top three. Then, the final two spots will be filled by upside pitchers, such as Reese Olson, Casey Mize, Sawyer Gipson-Long, and Matt Manning.
But this group isn’t going to stay healthy. Over the course of 162 games, the Tigers will not avoid injuries to their starting staff. We’ve learned that the hard way.
Last season, eight pitchers made at least 12 starts for the Tigers, and that doesn’t even include Spencer Turnbull, who began the season in the rotation, or Beau Brieske, who wasn’t in the mix because of an injury, or Casey Mize, who missed the entire season because of an injury.
By the end of 2023, when Olson and Gipson-Long were starting, the Tigers were basically 11-deep in their organizational depth chart at starting pitcher.
Hopefully this year isn’t quite as extreme, but the Tigers haven’t exactly put together the most durable staff to squash those injury concerns.
Skubal, as dynamic as he is on the mound, has never reached 150 innings in a professional season. He tossed 149.1 in 2021. His second-highest was 122.2 in the minors during the pre-pandemic 2019 season.
He’s already had one Tommy John surgery back in 2016, and more and more pitchers -- especially hard-throwers -- are having the procedure multiple times.
On top of that, Skubal is coming off back-to-back seasons that were cut in half by a major arm injury. He had flexor tendon surgery and came back looking better than ever, but still, that’s just another bit of wear and tear to consider.
Then there’s Maeda, a reliable veteran presence who was brought in to be a stabilizing force in an otherwise young, volatile rotation. While the Tigers know exactly what they’re going to get from Maeda when he’s healthy, he’s only pitched 210.2 innings since the pandemic (three full seasons).
Could he suddenly surpass 110 innings for the first time in five years? Sure, it’s possible. But Maeda turns 36 in April, so I wouldn’t say his injury risk is decreasing at this point in his career.
Flaherty looked like a budding workhorse early in his career, reaching 196.1 innings as a 23-year-old in 2019. But the COVID-shortened 2020 really threw him off. He pitched just 40.1 innings that season and then suffered a major oblique injury in 2021.
He threw 144.1 innings last season, so Flaherty could realistically reach 150 or 160 this year, if everything goes his way. But last year was a jump of more than 100 innings from his workload in 2022, so there’s definitely risk.
Tigers fans don’t need to be reminded of the injury histories for Mize and Manning. The former just missed two entire seasons (he made two starts in 2022 and none in 2023), while the latter has made just 27 starts over two years.
If you combine minor-league and MLB starts, Manning has thrown 117.2, 85.1, and 86.2 innings in three years since the pandemic.
At the start of his first full MLB season in 2022, Manning made two starts in April and then missed three and a half months with injury. Last year, he made two starts in April and then got hit in the foot by a line drive and missed two and a half months. Two months later, he took a liner off that same foot and missed the rest of the season.
It’s hard to hold last year against Manning. Getting hit in the foot by line drives doesn’t make you injury prone -- that’s just bad luck. But in 2022 he dealt with a forearm strain, biceps tendinitis, and shoulder inflammation. Not what you want to see from a pitcher.
And look, it’s already starting! Pitchers have been in Lakeland for a week and already Gipson-Long (groin), Brendan White (elbow), and Garrett Hill (lat) have been interrupted by injuries.
Every pitcher in the world is an injury risk, but some are more likely to get hurt than others, and this Tigers group certainly comes with red flags.
Offensive development
It’s February, so everyone around baseball is feeling optimistic. We tend to focus on the upside of unproven players and ignore what could happen if things don’t play out the way we hope.
As one of the youngest lineups in baseball, the Tigers offense comes with a particularly high variance.
The term “bust” is thrown around a lot in baseball, and it can mean a lot of different things. Tigers fans would probably consider Beau Burrows and Derek Hill busts, because they were first-round picks and highly regarded prospects who never panned out.
But what about someone like Jurickson Profar? He was the No. 1 prospect in baseball and fell way short of expectations, but he’s also put together a 10-year career. Is MacKenzie Gore already a bust? The former top pitching prospect in baseball has been awful over 200 innings, but he’s still just 24. What about Byron Buxton? Can injuries make someone a bust?
That word can take on many different forms, but the point is players who fall short of expectations are much more common than, say, a Bobby Witt Jr. or Julio Rodriguez -- players who get to the majors and almost immediately live up to the hype.
What makes me nervous about the Tigers’ offense this season: They are, perhaps more than any other team, banking on players who are still unproven at the MLB level.
Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson showed flashes of greatness last year, and we all took it as confirmation that they have finally tapped into the skills that made them top-10 prospects. And for some, the assumption is that now that’s what they will be moving forward.
But Greene hasn’t even managed to play 100 games in an MLB season. Torkelson was basically only productive for 45 games. There’s obviously a chance that they can’t sustain these small samples of success over the course of a full season.
Would you consider Kerry Carpenter or Parker Meadows established major leaguers? I really like what I’ve seen so far, but I sure wouldn’t. And we haven’t even gotten to Colt Keith, the presumed starter at second base who’s yet to step in an MLB batter’s box.
Most playoff teams have a blend of proven veterans to surround their young talent. When the Astros were breaking in Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, they complimented them with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Michael Brantley.
Alvarez and Tucker came with a lot of risk, but the Astros had proven commodities to raise the floor of the offense.
Look at last year’s AL Central champs. Sure, the Twins got a near best-case scenario from their crop of young players, as Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis, and Matt Wallner all hit the ground running in their first real taste of MLB action. But the Twins also had Carlos Correa, Jorge Polano, Max Kepler, and Donovan Solano to stabilize the lineup.
The Tigers don’t have that type of presence.
The trade for Mark Canha helps, but that’s one player, and Canha -- as much as I like his on-base profile -- isn’t on the same level as Altuve or Bregman or Correa.
Other than Canha, the Tigers are young at pretty much every position. Javier Baez is the only other veteran everyday player. Third in line would probably be Jake Rogers, who’s entering a season as the No. 1 catcher for the first time.
If most of these young players pan out, the Tigers will have a sneaky good offense. But if not, this is the type of situation where the bottom could fall out.
It’s better than playing it safe and being resigned to mediocrity. That doesn’t mean it’ll work, though.
Defensive holes
There’s no denying that in their quest to improve offensively, the Tigers have put defense on the back burner.
Detroit hasn’t been a bad defensive team under A.J. Hinch, but there’s definitely a chance 2024 is worse.
Keith is in Lakeland as a presumed starter because of his bat. His defense is such a question mark that we didn’t even know he would play second base until he signed a contract extension.
Is he capable? We’re about to find out. But I think it’s fair to assume it won’t be a strength.
Then there’s Carpenter, who wasn’t disastrous in the outfield last season, but he wasn’t good, either. Unless the Tigers want to limit him exclusively to the designated hitter spot -- which could stunt the 26-year-old’s defensive growth even further -- he’s going to get some action in the field.
Justyn-Henry Malloy could make outfield defense an even bigger question if he makes the roster. Like Keith, Malloy is a bat-first prospect with elite on-base skills but major defensive questions. His recent move to the outfield was made because of his struggles at third base, not a belief that he could be a great defender.
The left side of the infield is also a major question. Nobody in baseball has committed more errors than Baez over the past two seasons, and even though his range is excellent, he’s not someone who can be relied upon to make routine plays.
Whoever stands next to him at third base will either be in a platoon (such as Zach McKinstry) or playing out of his natural position (Vierling).
The Tigers will have an elite defender in center field with Meadows and a very strong catcher behind the plate with Rogers. And even though the metrics don’t necessarily tell the same story, I believe Torkelson passes the eye test at first base. He’s saved Baez from many, many more throwing errors.
Meadows, Rogers, and Greene (assuming he moves to a corner) will be plus defenders. But there are question marks at every other position. That could really hurt pitch-to-contact guys like Manning and Mize.
Final thoughts
Unless you’re a Dodgers fan, you’re likely heading into 2024 with both hopes and concerns. Every team has flaws. Most teams have strengths. The playoffs are reserved for the ones that get the most out of their players, stay healthy, and have a bit of luck along the way.
Scott Harris, Jeff Greenberg, and Hinch have put together a roster good enough to make the playoffs if those three factors play out. That’s better than the past few years because, well, at least there’s some hope.
But as Harris and Hinch have echoed from Lakeland, this team hasn’t yet earned playoff talk. If anything, it’s earned skepticism. And if 2024 doesn’t go the way Tigers fans hope, I think it’ll be because of the three factors I mentioned.
