DETROIT – I know: It’s spring training. The numbers usually don’t matter. But sometimes they do.
The Detroit Tigers are having a very successful spring in terms of team performance, with a 15-8 record that ranks second behind only the Baltimore Orioles in Grapefruit League play.
And while many of the team’s major contributors -- like Riley Greene, Tarik Skubal, and Parker Meadows -- have gotten off to hot starts, others aren’t having quite as much fun down in Lakeland.
Let’s take a look at some of the players who are struggling and decide how much we’re actually worried.
Akil Baddoo
- Spring stats: 3-for-22 (.136) with 2 walks and 12 strikeouts (.406 OPS).
His first year with the Tigers, Baddoo was amazing in the spring and really good in the regular season. Then he was good in the spring and bad in the regular season. So what should we expect now that he’s bad in the spring?
Baddoo was already facing a steep uphill battle to make the roster since there are three lefty-hitting outfielders in the primary rotation. But it’s starting to feel like he’s going to drop out of the picture altogether.
- Worry level: 8/10.
Javier Baez
- Spring stats: 2-for-29 (.069) with 1 walk and 11 strikeouts (.163 OPS).
I don’t typically care much about spring training stats. But they’re hard to ignore when players struggle in areas that were already concerns coming in.
Baez is the perfect example.
Tigers fans have only known Baez as a bad hitter, and that’s primarily due to a horrifying lack of plate discipline. That’s exactly what we’ve seen again this month.
No player swung and missed more than Baez last season, and I find it hard to believe anyone has done so more in March. I mean, Baez’s OPS would be disastrous even if it was a batting average.
- Worry level: 10/10.
Beau Brieske
- Spring stats: 9.2 innings, 5 strikeouts, 2 walks, 0.00 ERA, 0.31 WHIP.
It’s really hard for me to be worried about a pitcher in spring training based on stats. If his velocity is way down or his stuff doesn’t look as sharp, that’s one thing, but it’s hard to rely on small sample size stats when one swing of the bat could be the difference between a perfect ERA and a disastrous one.
On top of that, how can we be worried about a pitcher who has allowed three measly base runners in 9.2 innings? I’m not, but still: We should address the strikeouts.
Brieske struggled to get whiffs last season, even though he succeeded overall in his first test as a reliever. His stuff looks electric again this spring, but he’s only struck out about one batter every two innings.
Brieske has proven he can be effective without big strikeout numbers, but if he’s to become an elite reliever, that will have to change.
- Worry level: 2/10.
Mark Canha
- Spring stats: 6-for-29 (.207) with 3 walks and 9 strikeouts (.600 OPS).
Tigers fans who haven’t followed Canha’s career probably aren’t very impressed to this point in the spring. He’s not hitting for any power, and the plate discipline has been shaky.
But the Tigers acquired Canha for one reason: to get on base. And that’s something he’s done reliably for a very long time. Sure, he’s 35 years old now, but it’s going to take a lot more than 32 spring plate appearances to cause concern.
- Worry level: 2/10.
Andrew Chafin
- Spring stats: 4 innings, 8 strikeouts, 0 walks, 6.75 ERA, 0.75 WHIP.
The last time Tigers fans saw Chafin in the Old English D, he was posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while striking out 67 batters across 57.1 innings. But he was bad last season, so there’s something left to prove.
Chafin has allowed a pair of homers in his four single-inning appearances, and as a result, his ERA is an inflated 6.75. But the rest of the numbers are excellent -- two strikeouts per inning and a WHIP of 0.75.
Chafin probably won’t be as good as he was in 2022, but he looks just fine this spring.
- Worry level: 1/10.
Jack Flaherty
- Spring stats: 8.2 innings, 11 strikeouts, 4 walks, 5.19 ERA, 1.04 WHIP.
Flaherty had a really, really horrible inning on March 7 against the Yankees. He started the game by allowing an infield single, two walks, a double, a sacrifice fly, and then a third walk. If you look at the rest of his spring training workload, he’s allowed two runs on three hits and one walk in 8.1 innings -- very strong.
He’s also struck out 11 batters across 8.2 innings. That’s a more important sign than all of his struggles put together.
Flaherty chose Detroit because the Tigers are starting to earn a reputation as an organization that gets the most out of pitchers. So far, so good.
- Worry level: 1/10.
Jason Foley
- Spring stats: 3.2 innings, 6 strikeouts, 2 walks, 7.36 ERA, 1.64 WHIP.
If there’s one knock on Foley so far in his career, it’s his inability to miss bats. He has great raw stuff and an elite ground ball rate, but the career 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings is a cause for concern.
Foley allowed three runs way back on March 2 vs. Pittsburgh, but other than that, he’s struck out twice as many batters (six) as he’s allowed base runners (three).
- Worry level: 1/10.
Tyler Holton
- Spring stats: 6 innings, 7 strikeouts, 1 walk, 6.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP.
It’s a bit concerning that Holton has allowed three homers in six innings, especially since he doesn’t have any track record of success beyond last season.
But we saw 85.1 innings of excellent production in 2023, so it’ll take much more than six exhibition innings to cause much concern.
- Worry level: 2/10.
Alex Lange
- Spring stats: 4 innings, 7 strikeouts, 2 walks, 9:00 ERA, 1.75 WHIP.
I think we’ve seen enough of Alex Lange to confidently say his season will come down to one category: walks.
Lange is going to be an elite strikeout pitcher. He’s not going to give up a ton of damage on balls in play. But he allowed more walks, on average, than any pitcher in MLB last season, and that has to change.
So far, Lange has walked two batters in four innings, which is not great, but it’s not crippling for someone with his profile.
- Worry level: 2/10.
Spencer Torkelson
- Spring stats: 4-for-29 (.138) with 3 walks and 11 strikeouts (.484 OPS).
The Tigers are expecting big things from Torkelson after his 31-homer 2023, but he’s far from a proven commodity at the MLB level.
Even though he’s a former No. 1 pick and top prospect, most of Torkelson’s time in the big leagues has been a struggle. So fans shouldn’t assume he’s just a 30-homer guy now.
But the minor-league track record suggests Torkelson just needed a little time to adjust to MLB pitching, and I expect him to be just fine.
- Worry level: 1/10.
Gio Urshela
- Spring stats: 11-for-35 (.314) with 0 walks and 9 strikeouts (.657 OPS)
There are so many explanations for why Urshela could struggle this spring -- the late start and last year’s injury chief among them. But even though his strikeout rate is high and the extra-base hits aren’t there, Urshela is still hitting .314, which isn’t nothing.
It’s possible the injury has sapped Urshela’s power indefinitely and he’ll provide nothing but an empty batting average going forward. He was still a free agent in March, after all.
But I’m not willing to make those assumptions based on two weeks of spring training games.
- Worry level: 2/10.
Will Vest
- Spring stats: 5.2 innings, 5 strikeouts, 6 walks, 6.35 ERA, 2.12 WHIP.
If I was Vest, I would be worried about my roster spot.
It’s always felt like Vest was walking a bit of a fine line. Not many players can have such little success in the minors and put together an MLB season like Vest did in 2023.
But his job doesn’t feel secure, either. Especially not with multi-inning guys like Brieske and Alex Faedo dominating in the spring. Joey Wentz could also get a shot since he’s out of options.
Vest deserves a bit of leeway because he’s been so reliable the last two seasons, but the Tigers are trying not to get off to another slow start, so a pitcher with a 6.35 ERA, a 2.12 WHIP, and more walks than strikeouts should be nervous.
- Worry level: 3/10.
Matt Vierling
- Spring stats: 8-for-32 (.250) with 4 walks and 6 strikeouts (.833 OPS).
The spotlight on Vierling would be much brighter if the Tigers hadn’t signed Urshela, because the former was originally supposed to be competing for an everyday job at third base.
Before a three-hit day Saturday, his performance hadn’t stood out, but he’s been a bit better than the surface numbers suggest. Vierling has five extra-base hits and a solid strikeout-to-walk rate, which are much better indicators of where he’s at than the raw batting average.
- Worry level: 1/10.
