DETROIT – The first 15 games have gone better than expected for the Detroit Tigers, as they’re above .500 and still in the thick of the AL Central race.
It hasn’t all been smooth sailing. The Tigers dropped two of three games to the lowly Oakland A’s and lost six of nine after a 5-0 start. But I think every fan would have gladly signed up for a 9-6 record midway through April.
Here are thoughts on all 26 players up to this point.
Jake Rogers
- Season stats: 3-for-27 (.111) with 1 homer, 2 walks, and 13 strikeouts.
It’s been a bit of a rough start for Rogers in all phases. He’s struck out in nearly half of his plate appearances while mustering only three hits, and that’s why his playing time has been cut in favor of Carson Kelly.
The most surprising part of Rogers’ start is his defensive metrics. He’s definitely stolen some strikes for the Tigers early on, but he only grades out as average in framing, and his overall defense is middling so far.
Carson Kelly
- Season stats: 7-for-31 (.226) with 1 homer, 2 walks, and 6 strikeouts.
Kelly already delivered two huge wins for the Tigers: a three-hit performance to beat the White Sox and an extra-innings homer to sink the Mets.
He’s cooled off since then, but Kelly has been a solid bat in the lineup and reliable defender behind the dish. His production has earned him more at-bats than Rogers so far.
Spencer Torkelson
- Season stats: 14-for-63 (.222) with 5 doubles, 4 walks, and 13 strikeouts.
Everybody’s aware of Torkelson’s struggles at the plate, and it’s concerning that he’s striking out so often and hitting so many popups.
Usually, when Torkelson’s in a slump, he’s still hitting the ball hard. But that’s not the case right now. After a 31-homer campaign in 2023, he’s still not on the board, and it’s reasonable to be a bit worried.
Colt Keith
- Season stats: 11-for-53 (.208) with 1 double, 5 walks, and 11 strikeouts.
Coming into the four-game series against Minnesota, Keith had only four strikeouts in 11 games. Then he struck out seven times over the weekend.
But he hasn’t looked overmatched in his first taste of MLB action. Keith is hitting the ball reasonably hard and showing good plate discipline. He’s been a bit unlucky, and his numbers will almost assuredly improve in the coming weeks.
Gio Urshela
- Season stats: 13-for-42 (.310) with 2 doubles, 1 walk, and 8 strikeouts.
The reaction to the Tigers signing Urshela was lukewarm, at best, but they’d sure be in a tough spot without him.
His production mostly comes in the form of singles, but Urshela has come through with some big hits already this season, and he’s probably the best defender in the third base rotation. As a result, he’s starting to see the bulk of the playing time.
Javier Baez
- Season stats: 6-for-43 (.140) with 1 homer, 0 walks, and 14 strikeouts.
Baez hit a critical home run in the finale against the Twins to spark a rally and help the Tigers steal a game, but that’s where the good news ends.
Baez has swung at more than half of the pitches out of the zone against him this season (yes, really) and is striking out at an alarming rate. When he does put the ball in play, it’s generally not quality contact.
Even the defense has graded out poorly so far this year. Unfortunately, Ryan Kreidler got hurt at Triple-A, so the Tigers don’t really have any other options.
Mark Canha
- Season stats: 10-for-50 (.200) with 3 doubles, 3 homers, 7 walks, and 12 strikeouts.
Detroit is getting exactly what it expected from Canha. He’s sporting a .344 on-base percentage, putting together quality at-bats on a nightly basis, and even providing a bit of power.
Whether the batting average improves or not, Canha has been one of the best hitters on the team, and that should continue.
Parker Meadows
- Season stats: 2-for-33 (.061) with 1 triple, 7 walks, and 16 strikeouts.
For the first several games, Meadows was drawing walks and hitting the ball hard, so I wasn’t worried about his slump. But you can tell it’s starting to weigh on him now, because he’s leaving the strike zone more often and making unproductive outs.
Meadows is such a gifted player. He’s displayed elite speed and defense several times this year. But he has to at least hit a little bit, and right now, he looks lost.
Riley Greene
- Season stats: 13-for-55 (.236) with 3 doubles, 3 homers, 10 walks, and 15 strikeouts.
This is what the Tigers were hoping to see from Greene this season. He’s hitting the ball hard to all fields and getting on base at a high rate. He’s been the best everyday player on the team.
The move to the corner outfield has taken Greene’s defense from solid to excellent, and he’s also a clear positive on the base paths.
Kerry Carpenter
- Season stats: 10-for-37 (.270) with 2 doubles, 2 homers, 2 walks, and 7 strikeouts.
Carpenter has been productive this season, but not in the ways I expected. He’s not hitting the ball nearly as hard as he did last season, yet he’s cut way down on the strikeout rate, and that’s resulted in some good batted ball fortune.
Carpenter has to be much, much smarter on the base paths. He’s made a couple of critical outs at third base and home, and the Tigers can’t afford to waste rallies.
Matt Vierling
- Season stats: 11-for-37 (.297) with 2 doubles, 1 homer, 1 walk, and 12 strikeouts.
Quietly, Vierling has been one of the most valuable everyday players for the Tigers through 15 games, even though he doesn’t have a consistent starting position.
The metrics don’t necessarily love his defense, but Vierling passes the eye test, especially in center field. He made a pair of running catches against the Pirates on Tuesday that kept the Tigers in the game and allowed them to come back and win.
At the plate, Vierling is hitting the ball hard and staying in the strike zone. He’s striking out more than the Tigers would like, but he’s rarely swinging and missing, so it’s more an issue of passivity than a hole in his swing.
Zach McKinstry
- Season stats: 6-for-24 (.250) with 3 walks and 8 strikeouts.
The first 15 games were a mixed bag for McKinstry. His biggest moment was an unassisted double play to get out of a bases-loaded jam against the White Sox, but then he made a critical error to sink the Tigers in extra innings against the Twins.
He’s hit a few singles, but we’re still waiting to see him do some real damage at the plate.
Wenceel Perez
- Season stats: 2-for-5 (.400) with 1 double, 1 walk, and 2 strikeouts.
Perez got called up to make his MLB debut and has appeared in three games. He’s already got a double, a single, a walk, and a stolen base, so I’d say he’s off to a nice start.
It’s unlikely that Perez will keep his roster spot when everyone is healthy, but this is an important audition for someone who appears to be the next man up when a player goes down.
Tarik Skubal
- Season stats: 2.08 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 20 strikeouts and 4 walks in 17.1 innings.
Skubal is an ace -- what more do we need to say?
He’s overpowering hitters with a deep arsenal, keeping the ball in the strike zone, and working deep into games. Other than a blip late in the Opening Day start against the A’s, he’s looked like the best pitcher in baseball.
Kenta Maeda
- Season stats: 6.00 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 10 strikeouts and 5 walks in 15 innings.
Maeda... not so much.
The first two starts were disastrous, and the third was a little bit fortunate even though the final line looked good.
Maeda lives and dies by the splitter, and right now, he’s having trouble keeping that pitch down. As a result, he’s already served up four homers, and he’s not missing many bats.
Jack Flaherty
- Season stats: 4.91 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 20 strikeouts and 3 walks in 18.1 innings.
The Tigers have to be thrilled with what they’ve seen from Flaherty so far.
Other than an extremely unlucky start against the A’s, Flaherty has been dominant, striking out nearly seven batters for every walk.
He’s 88th percentile in whiff rate and limiting hard contact. The slider -- his most used pitch -- is generating whiffs at a 40.5% rate.
This might not be 2019 Jack Flaherty, but it’s certainly a step in the right direction from the past few years.
Reese Olson
- Season stats: 5.40 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 6 strikeouts and 5 walks in 10 innings.
It’s been a rough start to the season for Olson, who has nearly as many walks as strikeouts through his first two starts.
The good news is he’s still generating whiffs, and he’s also keeping the ball on the ground much better. That, combined with a deep four-pitch arsenal, should help him turn things around pretty quickly.
If you’re looking for hope with Olson: He’s got a 52.9% whiff rate on his changeup and a 46.7% whiff rate on his slider -- that’s a great place to start.
Casey Mize
- Season stats: 4.82 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6 strikeouts and 3 walks in 9.1 innings.
I’m pretty discouraged by what I’ve seen from Mize so far. He’s throwing hard, which is a great sign coming back from such a long injury absence. But he really isn’t fooling hitters.
Mize is getting whiffs on less than 20% of swings and has allowed some of the hardest contact in MLB so far. It’s a dangerous combination, and one that could continue to result in short outings.
Andrew Chafin
- Season stats: 1.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 7 strikeouts and 3 walks in 5 innings.
Early indications suggest Chafin is right back to his 2022 Tigers form. He’s one of the best in the game at missing bats and suppressing hard contact. And that’s exactly what he’s doing.
Shelby Miller
- Season stats: 1.08 ERA, 0.36 WHIP, 8 strikeouts and 2 walks in 8.1 innings.
Miller finally gave up a hit on Saturday, and unfortunately, it was a game-tying homer that led to a Tigers loss.
But he’s been phenomenal overall, allowing just three base runners in 8.1 innings. A.J. Hinch is comfortable going to Miller in high-leverage innings, but he can also give the Tigers some length, when needed.
Will Vest
- Season stats: 2.35 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 5 strikeouts and 3 walks in 7.2 innings.
It’s weird that Vest isn’t getting strikeouts because he’s had no trouble missing bats -- a 34% whiff rate that ranks in the 88th percentile.
Vest is the guy Hinch turns to when a starter can’t quite get through a clean fifth or sixth inning. He’s been valuable in that role.
Joey Wentz
- Season stats: 1.17 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10 strikeouts and 3 walks in 7.2 innings.
So far, so good for Wentz out of the bullpen. He’s missing bats, inducing weak contact, and keeping the walks mostly in check.
But I still need more time before I can trust him. Wentz has a tendency to fall behind in counts, and that usually catches up to guys in the major leagues. But it’s hard to argue with the results.
Alex Lange
- Season stats: 2.08 ERA, 2.31 WHIP, 7 strikeouts and 7 walks in 4.1 innings.
It’s rare to see a pitcher whose WHIP is higher than his ERA. But Lange isn’t like most pitchers.
Instead of fixing his one clear problem from last season, Lange appears to have leaned even further into his volatility. He can still overpower hitters with his curveball, but the lack of control makes him difficult to trust.
If Lange can’t work more consistently in the strike zone, Beau Brieske is at Triple-A knocking on the door.
Alex Faedo
- Season stats: 2.16 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7 strikeouts and 4 walks in 8.1 innings.
The strong spring that earned Faedo a roster spot has carried over into the regular season. He’s generating whiffs on 41.5% of swings, which is in the 98th percentile.
Faedo has one of the best single pitches in all of baseball. His slider, which he uses 52.9% of the time, currently has a 62.5% whiff rate. He’s allowed one hit on that pitch (a single) and an average exit velocity of 82.3 mph. Those numbers are absurd, and that slider is why Faedo earned the final roster spot over Brieske.
Tyler Holton
- Season stats: 2.25 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 8 strikeouts and 1 walk in 8 innings.
The underlying numbers suggest Holton’s been lucky early in the season, but I think he’s just awesome. He looks pretty much like the guy who dominated for the Tigers all of last season.
Holton has only issued one walk and is in the 99th percentile in chase rate. Batters swing at 44.9% of the pitches he throws out of the strike zone.
That combination of swing-and-miss stuff and elite control is what makes Holton a lethal arm in the late innings. The only concern -- and this has carried over from spring training -- is homers.
Jason Foley
- Season stats: 0.00 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 9 strikeouts and 4 walks in 8.1 innings.
The four walks are uncharacteristic for Foley, but the rest of his profile is nearly spotless.
He’s averaging 98 mph on his sinker and touching 101. The whiff rate on that pitch isn’t great, but hitters can’t do any real damage (3-for-18 with three singles).
Foley already has four saves on the season, and the combination overpowering stuff and an elite ground ball rate makes him a difficult pitcher to rally against.
Bonus: Andy Ibanez
- Season stats: 4-for-15 (.267) with 6 strikeouts.
Ibanez was placed on the injured list with a bad hamstring last week, but it’s not expected to be a long-term problem.
He had a couple of clutch moments early in the season, but the overall numbers are pretty uninspiring. Ibanez is still searching for his first extra-base hit and his first walk, and he’s struck out in 40% of his at-bats.
Bonus: Matt Manning
- Season stats: 2.92 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 10 strikeouts and 6 walks in 12.1 innings.
Rain has given Manning two early opportunities this season even though he didn’t make the 26-man roster.
So far, Manning has pitched more innings than Mize or Olson, the two pitchers who beat him out for the last two rotation spots in the spring.
Manning remains elite at suppressing hard contact, but high walks and low strikeouts don’t make for a winning combination. If and when he gets a chance to remain in the rotation long-term, he’ll need to miss more bats or throw more strikes.
