DETROIT – The Detroit Tigers have gotten a huge boost from rookie Wenceel Perez, but should we expect it to continue?
When the Tigers traveled north from spring training, they knew they were counting on several young, unproven players to carry the offense. Colt Keith and Parker Meadows were the headliners, with the former receiving a massive contract this offseason and the latter starring in a late 2023 cameo. But neither has given the Tigers any semblance of production at the plate.
Nobody could have guessed that Perez would be the rookie with the most impressive offensive numbers through the first month of the season.
Who is Wenceel Perez?
Since he signed with the Tigers as a 16-year-old in 2016, Perez has spent eight years fluctuating between a fringe top-10 prospect within the organization to outside the top 30.
His overall minor-league numbers are fine: a .273/.347/.399 slash line with 104 doubles, 35 triples, 34 homers and 120 steals in 573 games. That translates roughly to a 150-game pace of 27 doubles, nine triples, nine homers, and 31 steals.
Perez showed some promising signs early in his minor-league career -- primarily his plate discipline, speed, and extra-base power. But his prospect status really took a leap in 2022.
Perez spent 55 games at High-A West Michigan and 49 games with Double-A Erie that season, putting together a final stat line of 23 doubles, 10 triples, 14 homers, and 18 steals while slashing .295/.369/.534.
He followed that up with a solid first taste of Triple-A in 2023. In 35 games, Perez had nearly as many walks (27) as strikeouts (29) while racking up 20 extra-base hits.
Because of his numbers over the past two years, Perez entered spring training as a player to keep an eye on, and he performed fairly well. In 29 plate appearances, he hit the ball consistently hard and finished with one homer, five walks, and five strikeouts.
Why is Wenceel Perez in Detroit?
Perez didn’t have to wait long to make his MLB debut. He was called up April 8 when the Tigers placed Andy Ibanez on the injured list.
At the time, Perez was hitting just .212 across eight games in Toledo, but he did have five extra-base hits, four walks, and four stolen bases. He had only struck out six times in 37 plate appearances.
Ibanez is expected to return to the Tigers soon, but it’s hard to see Perez being the odd man out considering how he’s performed so far.
Hot start to MLB career
Perez spent most of the next two weeks on the bench, starting just two of his first 10 games and going 2-for-11 in very limited at-bats.
But that all changed on April 19.
A.J. Hinch penciled Perez into the No. 2 spot in the starting lineup against Minnesota Twins righty Joe Ryan and immediately reaped the rewards.
Perez delivered a key two-out hit to tie the game in the third inning and then stole second base so he could score on a Mark Canha go-ahead single. He led off the sixth inning with a triple and scored on a Kerry Carpenter single.
After the Twins intentionally walked Canha with two outs in the ninth inning of a 4-4 tie, Perez ripped an 0-1 heater into center field to deliver the game-winning run.
Since then, Perez has been a staple in the Tigers lineup. He’s played in seven of nine games, including six starts. If your name isn’t Canha, Riley Greene, or Spencer Torkelson, that’s about as regular as it gets for Hinch.
Perez provided another key hit in Sunday’s series finale against the Kansas City Royals, turning a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 lead with his first career MLB homer.
Overall, Perez is 10-for-35 (.286 average) with a double, two triples, a homer, four walks, and 10 strikeouts. He’s got a .359 on-base percentage and an .873 OPS, which ranks behind only Canha on the team.
Perez has two stolen bases in three attempts and one error in 77 innings (56 in right field and 21 in center).
Is this a real breakout?
It’s obviously way too early to draw conclusions, but that shouldn’t stop us from looking at Perez’s underlying numbers.
His quality of contact has been middling so far, with an average exit velocity of 88.8 mph. Only 36% of his balls in play have qualified as “hard-hit,” and the expected stats suggest he’s been a bit lucky.
But there are some very encouraging early signs. Perez is walking at a 10.3% clip and whiffing on less than one-fifth of his swings. That makes me feel pretty good about his chances of maintaining a solid OBP.
Perez is also an elite base runner, both in terms of sprint speed (83rd percentile) and decision-making. He should be able to capitalize on that strength, considering how often he’s getting on base. That’s a breath of fresh air for a Tigers team that’s made some costly outs on the base paths.
Perez has been slightly below average defensively, but the Tigers don’t need him to be a star in the outfield. Meadows and Greene have that under control.
I wouldn’t expect Perez to maintain an average in the .280s, but could he hit .250? It seems entirely possible with his contact tendencies, his ability to hit the ball to all fields, and his speed.
Even though he’s a switch hitter, Perez was awful against left-handed pitching in the minors last season, so expect the majority of his at-bats to come against right-handers.
Verdict: Wenceel Perez
It’s been really fun to watch Perez over the past week. He’s come up with some clutch hits, and the at-bats are consistently competitive.
But we all know major-league pitchers are going to adjust, and Perez will go through slumps.
I’m pretty confident Perez won’t finish with an .800 OPS this season, but he’s got the type of profile Scott Harris wants in this Tigers lineup. Right now, we can see what it looks like when someone of his makeup is seeing the ball well.
If Perez can be a .340 OBP guy, his speed and gap power will make him an above-average offensive player. And the Tigers have plenty of room for that in their lineup.
