DETROIT – Well, it’s July.
The Major League Baseball season is more than half over. There have been pleasant surprises, like the Guardians. Epic disasters, like the White Sox. And surprise playoff contenders, like the Royals, Mets, Pirates, and Nationals.
Then there are your Tigers.
Sigh.
Nobody outside of Detroit was excited about this team coming into the season, and it turns out they were right. The Tigers are -- for all intents and purposes -- an example of exactly where you don’t want to be as a major-league franchise.
It’s been a decade since the Tigers were last in the postseason -- tied with the Los Angeles Angels (who spent the weekend shoving the Tigers into a locker) for longest in the league.
But it’s not the playoff drought that’s so frustrating. It’s the “time since this team was even remotely interesting” drought.
I don’t think Tigers fans had unrealistic expectations for the 2024 season. Did it seem possible that this team could find a way to live on the fringe of the AL Central race? Sure. But if we would have known the Guardians would be 22 games over .500 by the end of June, we would have settled for simply treading water in the wild card race.
But they haven’t even been able to do that. The Tigers are eight games below .500 and eight games out of the third AL wild card spot. This is the exact same record the Tigers had through 84 games in 2021, and it’s only one game better than last year.
So Tigers fans are left without any sign of progress, and without meaningful baseball for yet another long summer. As hard as they tried to get behind this team -- and trust me, it’s a hard team to get behind -- it hasn’t been at all rewarding.
Since they started the season 5-0, the Tigers have only had three winning streaks of more than two games. With a pitching staff that includes Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, and Reese Olson, you’d think this group could find a way to occasionally string together a few wins.
But the offense is just... well, you’ve seen it. The Tigers rank bottom five in MLB in OPS, on-base percentage, batting average, homers, and stolen bases.
With Kerry Carpenter on the injured list, the Tigers have one player with an OPS of at least .750. One. ONE!
Carson Kelly, a part-time catcher, has more WAR than every healthy regular on the roster except Riley Greene. And that’s not because Kelly is having some breakout season.
It doesn’t get a whole lot better on the mound, honestly. Skubal, Flaherty, and Olson have been phenomenal, but the Kenta Maeda signing looks disastrous and it doesn’t seem like Casey Mize will ever be more than a serviceable back-end starter.
The regression of relievers like Tyler Holton, Shelby Miller, Alex Lange, and Andrew Chafin has erased all the good feelings about the bullpen from early in the season. Even Jason Foley appears to be only slightly above-average.
So Tigers fans can’t even really enjoy the bright spots of this season, like Flaherty’s reemergence as an ace.
Instead of celebrating that Chris Fetter and the Tigers’ pitching development staff have worked their magic once again, each Flaherty start seems like just another reminder that he’ll be wearing a different uniform by the end of this month.
Flaherty is on a one-year deal, and since the Tigers are already out of contention, it seems a foregone conclusion that Scott Harris and Jeff Greenberg will flip him for some low-level prospect who rakes in the minors but can’t hit MLB pitching.
Or maybe they’ll go the Eduardo Rodriguez route and keep Flaherty around for the fun of it.
Right now, it’s hard to feel optimistic. What are the chances of landing another Flaherty for next year? And what will change about the offense? The Tigers will likely once again cross their fingers and hope to build around Greene, Colt Keith, and Spencer Torkelson.
I think Greene is an All-Star caliber player. He might strike out a bit too much, but that hasn’t stopped him from putting up excellent numbers. He’s nearly on a 6-WAR pace. That’s elite.
We also have over 700 plate appearances’ worth of data that show Carpenter is an above-average MLB hitter. He hits for power and for average, and his plate discipline isn’t terrible.
That’s two players. So... how far away does that make the rebuild? With how Chris Ilitch has manages the payroll, I don’t even want to think about it.
The Tigers have a Cy Young candidate, a Comeback Player of the Year candidate, and a breakout hitter. But they’ve still managed to lose series to Oakland, Miami, Washington, and the Angels.
Four weeks ago, the Tigers were 31-30 and 2.5 games out of the playoffs. Now they’re the fourth-worst team in the American League, and ready to ship more good players to contenders.