DETROIT – For the first time since Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer graced the mound at Comerica Park, the starting pitcher for the AL in the All-Star Game should be wearing the Old English D.
Phew, those were the days. From 2009 to 2015, the Tigers had at least three All-Stars each season (29 total in seven years). The year Scherzer got the starting nod in 2013, Detroit was represented by six players at Citi Field.
But it’s been a long time since the Tigers were relevant participants in the Midsummer Classic. Excluding Miguel Cabrera’s special “legacy” selection in 2022, the Tigers have only sent the obligatory one player to the All-Star Game five times in a row.
None of those selections -- Joe Jimenez, Shane Greene, Gregory Soto (twice), and Michael Lorenzen -- were likely to make it if not for the rule that every team must have a participant.
Now, here we are, midway through another season that certainly isn’t going how anyone hoped. But this weekend came with a silver lining: The Tigers didn’t get a participation trophy.
Detroit will send two players to Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. It’s their first actual dual selection since Michael Fulmer and Justin Upton in 2017. And both players are undeniably deserving.
Riley Greene leads the Tigers in every major offensive stat (Kerry Carpenter hasn’t played enough to quality), from all three pillars of the triple stat line (.261 batting average/.356 on-base percentage/.500 slugging percentage) to his 17 homers, 17 doubles, and five triples.
His 3.7 WAR through 90 games has him on pace for nearly six wins above replacement -- a benchmark reserved for the game’s elite players.
But he hasn’t even been Detroit’s most valuable player.
Tarik Skubal has evolved into, I believe, the best pitcher on the planet. Through his first 18 starts, the Tigers’ lefty owns a 2.37 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
There’s no doubt about it: Skubal should take the mound first next Tuesday in Texas.
At the moment, there really isn’t another American League pitcher whose numbers can rival Skubal’s.
He’s third in the league in ERA, but the gap between him (2.37 ERA) and the leaders -- Seth Lugo (2.21) and Corbin Burnes (2.32) -- is minimal.
On the other hand, Skubal’s advantage in other key stats is much more significant. For starters, he’s striking out 10.8 batters per nine, which is much higher than either Lugo (8.1) or Burnes (8.4).
Skubal is also one of only four AL starters with a sub-1.00 WHIP. One didn’t make the All-Star team (Joe Ryan), the other two (Logan Gilbert and Garret Crochet) have much higher ERAs, and both Lugo and Burnes are over 1.00 in terms of WHIP.
The difference between a 0.90 and 1.04 WHIP is much more significant than the difference between a 2.21 and 2.37 ERA.
Crochet is an interesting candidate because he leads the league with 146 strikeouts. But Skubal is only 14 strikeouts behind (with one fewer start) and has an advantage in both ERA (2.37 vs. 3.08) and WHIP (0.90 vs. 0.97).
I don’t care about pitcher wins (why should Skubal be penalized for Detroit’s disappointing offense?), but if you’re into that sort of thing, Skubal is third in the AL with 10, behind only Lugo and Baltimore’s Grayson Rodriguez (both at 11).
If we venture beyond the surface stats, Skubal’s claim to the throne only grows stronger. He’s above the 90th percentile of MLB pitchers in expected ERA, whiff percentage, strikeout percentage, walk percentage, and hard-hit rate.
He’s also 85th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, 86th percentile in expected opponent batting average, and 78th percentile in chase rate.
Oh yeah, and he gets ground balls at a 46.9% clip (69th percentile) and has four pitches with a wOBA (weighted on-base average) below .300. In other words, batters can’t muster a .300 OBP against any of his four primary pitches even if they get bonus points for extra-base hits. That’s just absurd.
You can tell he wants this, too. Skubal was roaring at the end of every inning Sunday as he struck out 13 Reds while allowing just three hits and one run in seven innings.
He’s scheduled to make one more start before the break: Friday night against the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers.
Skubal has four well-above average pitches, a fastball that touches 100 mph, elite strikeout numbers, pinpoint command, a high ground ball rate, and excellent opponent contact metrics.
What else could you ask for? He’s basically the perfect starting pitcher. And he deserves to start the All-Star Game.
