DETROIT – Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal will not start the All-Star Game for the American League, even though he is the most deserving pitcher.
Manager Bruce Bochy announced that Baltimore Orioles starter Corbin Burnes will get the nod for the AL. Burnes is having an excellent season, but his numbers are objectively worse than Skubal’s across the board.
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Both pitchers have made 19 starts this season. Burnes has pitched 118.2 innings, while Skubal is at 116. Let’s compare their surface stats:
- bWAR: Skubal 4.5, Burnes 2.9.
- fWAR: Skubal 3.5, Burnes 2.6.
- ERA: Skubal 2.41, Burnes 2.43.
- WHIP: Skubal 0.88, Burnes 1.05.
- Strikeouts: Skubal 140, Burnes 110.
- Strikeouts per 9: Skubal 10.9, Burnes 8.3.
- Hits allowed: Skubal 81, Burnes 99.
- Walks allowed: Skubal 21, Burnes 25.
- Homers allowed: Skubal 10, Burnes 13.
“Maybe Burnes has better underlying numbers?” Nope:
- FIP: Skubal 2.57, Burnes 3.36.
- xFIP: Skubal 2.71, Burnes 3.35.
- xERA: Skubal 2.70, Burnes 3.00.
- SIERA: Skubal 2.76, Burnes 3.55.
- xBA: Skubal .208, Burnes .229.
- Chase rate: Burnes 33.3%, Skubal 31.4%.
- Whiff rate: Skubal 32.6%, Burnes 29.2%.
- Strikeout rate: Skubal 30.8%, Burnes 23.3%.
- Walk rate: Skubal 4.6%, Burnes 5.3%.
- Opponent barrel rate: Burnes 6.2%, Skubal 7.6%.
- Average exit velocity: Skubal 87.2 mph, Burnes 87.8 mph.
- Hard-hit rate: Burnes 30.9%, Skubal 32.1%.
- Ground-ball rate: Burnes 49.6%, Skubal 47.6%.
Skubal has been the best pitcher in the AL on paper and also owns the most dominant underlying metrics. There’s no legitimate justification for Burnes getting the nod over Skubal -- heck, Skubal even has a better record (10-3 vs. 9-4) despite playing for a team with 11 fewer wins.
I’m not sure how Bochy came to this decision, but it certainly wasn’t performance-based. He’ll probably claim he wanted to chose the starting pitcher from the best team (Cleveland didn’t send a starter to the game).
Bochy’s Texas Rangers start the second half of the season with a three-game series against the Orioles, so maybe he’s just pandering to Burnes before he has to oppose him over the weekend.
Whatever the reason, it’s not a good one. Skubal put together a completely dominant first half, and he should have been rewarded with the start.
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