DETROIT – Did the Detroit Tigers do enough with their mini hot streak right before the All-Star break to justify being buyers at the upcoming trade deadline?
Tigers get hot out of nowhere
Two weeks ago, I wrote that the Tigers were making themselves sellers once again. They were eight games under .500, eight games out of the final wildcard race, and had just lost three of four to the lowly Angels.
Three days later, they dropped a rubber match to the Twins by a score of 12-3 and fell to 39-48. There weren’t really any signs of life.
But in the final 10 days before the All-Star break, the Tigers put together their most impressive stretch of the season.
First, they went into Cincinnati and swept a talented Reds team that remains very much in the mix for a wildcard spot in the NL.
Then, the Tigers returned home and took three out of four games from the Guardians -- one of the best teams in all of baseball. Their only loss in that series came in extra innings.
To top it all off, the Tigers took a series from the Dodgers over the weekend, despite blowing a 3-0 lead with Tarik Skubal on the mound to lose the opener on Friday night.
So with the next four days off, the Tigers have won eight of their last 10, including back-to-back series against two of the league’s best.
But is it enough to make the Tigers buyers at the trade deadline?
Wildcard standings
Here’s the problem: Detroit dug a massive hole for itself by going 8-18 between the fourth of June and the Fourth of July.
And even though they’ve gotten red-hot over the past 10 days, the Tigers have only made up one game of ground in the wildcard race, because the Red Sox won seven of 10.
So at three games below .500, the Tigers remain well out of reach of a playoff spot. Even if they made up ground on the Red Sox or Twins (who are a half-game ahead of Boston), the Tigers have to pass three other teams on the way -- the Royals, Astros, and Rays.
Coming out of the break, the Tigers will head north of the border for three games with the struggling Blue Jays, but then, it’s 16 straight against playoff contenders to take us into August.
We’ll find out pretty quickly whether this last stretch was a turning point or just a little hot streak.
Incentive to be sellers
Why would the Tigers sell if they have even the slightest chance to make a playoff push? Well, look at some of the minor deadline deals that have paid off in recent years.
The most notable is probably the Daniel Norris trade to Milwaukee, which brought a prospect named Reese Olson to Detroit.
Olson is one of the primary reasons that the Tigers have hung around this season. He’s sporting a 3.30 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 18 starts, with an excellent combination of high whiffs and high ground balls.
Look at what Scott Harris did last year with Michael Lorenzen. He flipped the one-year rental for prospect Hao-Yu Lee, who has become an exciting player for Double-A Erie.
Lee is batting .296 with a .365 on-base percentage, 12 homers, 15 doubles, five triples, and 13 stolen bases (in 13 attempts) as just a 21-year-old for the SeaWolves.
That deal will likely tempt Harris to dip his toes in the trade market for Jack Flaherty, who will generate more interest this year than Lorenzen did in 2023.
Could the Tigers also find a buyer for Mark Canha? Or Gio Urshela? Or Carson Kelly? Each rental offers Harris a chance to stock the minor leagues with more of his hand-picked prospects.
Why Tigers could be buyers
But I think Tigers fans are sick and tired of being sellers. Sick and tired of watching meaningless baseball in the months of August and September.
There’s a very slim chance this team could make a run at a wildcard spot in the coming weeks, but it’s still a chance.
The Tigers have recently gotten lifts from young hitters like Colt Keith and Wencell Perez. Keith is batting .395 with a .480 OBP over his past 12 games, including five homers and a pair of triples. Meanwhile, Perez has been a model of consistency since getting a surprise call to the majors this season, and lately, he’s developed a knack for coming up with timely hits.
If the Tigers can get Kerry Carpenter back anytime soon, this lineup won’t look nearly as bad as it did a few weeks ago, especially with All-Star Riley Greene back on a roll -- a .333 average, 1.032 OPS, and 19 extra-base hits over his past 33 games.
The starting rotation is already playoff caliber with Skubal, Flaherty, and Olson at the top. What if the Tigers added a couple of deadline bats to the young core of promising hitters?
Who could Tigers target?
Here’s the problem: There are a lot of potential buyers this month, and not many impact bats to go around.
There are only two teams more than six games out of a playoff spot in the NL, and only four obvious sellers in the AL. That leaves a potential 22-24 teams that could look to improve at the deadline, and only six or eight bad rosters to pick through.
The Tigers need to upgrade at shortstop because Javier Baez is a disaster and Ryan Kreidler was even worse during a brief cameo. But there aren’t many options available. I definitely don’t think Paul DeJong is much of an upgrade, and it seems farfetched that Harris would give up the prospects necessary to land someone like Bo Bichette.
First base is pretty much the same problem. It’s been a revolving door for the Tigers since Spencer Torkelson’s demotion, but who is there to target? Josh Bell looks cooked, and I don’t think the Tigers want to get involved in a Cody Bellinger deal. Vlad Guerrero Jr. isn’t happening, let’s be real.
Most of the decent available hitters are outfielders -- Jazz Chisholm, Randy Arozarena, Taylor Ward, Brent Rooker, Luis Robert, Tommy Pham, etc. But the Tigers don’t really need to invest in the outfield with Greene, Perez, Carpenter, and Justyn-Henry Malloy in the mix.
Maybe if some surprise teams decide to sell, the Tigers could find a way to make a deal. Would the Rays move old friend Isaac Paredes? Will the Rockies change their mind about moving Ryan McMahon? What if the defending champs call it quits and make Nathaniel Lowe or Josh Smith available?
The list of trade deadline bats is not attractive for a team like the Tigers, who would be looking to make cost-efficient upgrades. But it’s Harris’ job to explore all options and try to get creative.
This is the first time in eight years that the Tigers could even really consider being buyers. Why not give it a chance?