DETROIT – Two of the top World Series contenders in baseball are reportedly preparing huge trade offers for Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.
Reported interest from Orioles, Dodgers
Longtime MLB analyst Tom Verducci posted a story for Sports Illustrated on Monday saying that both the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers are looking at Skubal as the MLB trade deadline draws near.
The Orioles currently own the second-best record in the American League, just a half-game behind the Cleveland Guardians. But they’re only one game ahead of the New York Yankees atop the AL East.
With a loaded offense and Corbin Burnes at the top of the starting rotation, the Orioles are primed for a World Series run after coming up short in the Divisional Series last year, despite winning 101 games.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, just got an in-person look at Skubal. He struck out eight across six innings while allowing just two runs and three base runners.
The Dodgers have a much more comfortable seven-game lead over both the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres in the NL West. So they’re likely looking ahead to a starting rotation for the playoffs.
You don’t see a lineup trio like Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman very often, so the Dodgers are obviously all-in.
Skubal’s value
Skubal, 27, has been the best pitcher in baseball this season, posting a 2.41 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 140 strikeouts across 116 innings.
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All the underlying numbers support his dominance. Skubal ranks among the best pitchers in the league in terms of missing bats, throwing strikes, suppressing hard contact, and keeping the ball on the ground.
Skubal throws four different pitches at least 15% of the time, including a change-up with a 46.8% whiff rate, a slider with a 38.6% whiff rate, and a fastball that reaches 100 mph.
He doesn’t really have a weakness.
Skubal is under contract through the 2026 season. So if the Tigers trade him this month, his new team will get him for three World Series runs.
That means the price has to be high. Like, sky-high. Do you hear me, Scott Harris?
Keep him or trade him?
In Skubal, we’re talking about a surefire top-three pitcher in the heart of his prime. And he’s under team control for two-and-a-half more seasons.
It would take an incredible package of prospects and/or young MLB players to rip him away from a Tigers team that’s flirting with .500 for the first time in eight years.
Many want the Tigers to extend Skubal, but that might be difficult, considering the spending track record of owner Chris Ilitch and the fact that Skubal is represented by Scott Boras.
Skubal will also be 30 years old by the offseason of his free agency, and he already had one Tommy John surgery in college, before he was drafted by the Tigers in the ninth round in 2018.
So while trading him would be a very high-profile gamble, there are risks in keeping him, too.
It’s possible we’ll look back at the trade deadline of 2024 and say it was the best time to cash in on Skubal’s value. It’s also possible he’ll stay healthy and go down as one of the best pitchers of this generation. Or perhaps both can be true?
Do Orioles, Dodgers have enough?
Honestly, as it stands, I don’t know that the Dodgers even have enough to land Skubal -- at least, not if I was the general manager.
I like Dalton Rushing a lot, and he fits an immediate need as a first baseman or catcher. But a 23-year-old dominating at Double-A isn’t nearly the certainty I’d need to give up Skubal.
Other than Rushing, the Dodgers’ system is a bit underwhelming. And it’s very pitcher-heavy, which isn’t exactly what the Tigers need in a Skubal deal.
I don’t even think young major leaguers like Andy Pages and Miguel Vargas would move the needle enough for me to budge on Skubal. Sure, they’re talented young players, but they’ve combined for 0.6 WAR this season, while Skubal’s at 4.5.
Fine, twist my arm: Skubal for Ohtani. Where do I sign?
Baltimore, though... whew. Baltimore is the perfect partner if the Tigers want to do this dance.
I doubt the Orioles are going to let 10 bad games loosen their grip on mega-prospect Jackson Holliday, but they’ve still got enough to make a deal work without him.
We can start with consensus top-30 prospects Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo.
Yes, both. And yes, “start.”
Mayo is batting a clean .301 at Triple-A this season, with 19 bombs and a .381 on-base percentage. He’s a 22-year-old corner infielder who would immediately fix Detroit’s cavern at third base.
Basallo is only 19, but already he’s showing off power and on-base skills at Double-A Bowie. Last year across three levels, he posted a .402 OBP with 20 homers -- again, as a teenager.
There’s an embarrassment of riches to sift through. Trading Skubal to Baltimore would be like having three first-round picks in a dynasty fantasy baseball draft.
Connor Norby struggled a bit during a call-up this year, but he’s mashing for a second-straight year at Triple-A Norfolk and can play infield or outfield. Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser, and Heston Kjerstad have played enough in the majors to lose prospect status, but I’m sure the Tigers don’t mind. Send ‘em over!
Baltimore has amassed this almost unheard-of excess of exciting offensive prospects, and it’s impossible to fit them all on the roster. It feels inevitable that the Orioles will one day unload some of them to round out what’s already a championship-caliber roster.
Well, if they’re not willing to do it for Skubal, when are they ever going to do it?
Final thoughts
It’s so frustrating to be talking about the Tigers as trade deadline sellers once again. They should be past this, especially considering the strength of the starting rotation.
But think about why we’re here: The Tigers struggle to develop hitters. You’ve got Nick Castellanos, Riley Greene, and perhaps Colt Keith. Isn’t that about it? The success stories have been few and far between for decades.
If you can’t develop your own hitters, you have to either pay up in free agency or trade for somebody else’s. It’s as simple as that.
Ever since the questions started popping up on social media, I’ve been firmly in the “keep Skubal” camp.
But I do have one exception. If Baltimore is involved, I’m in.
The Tigers have a shallow foundation of everyday players in Greene, Keith, and Kerry Carpenter. Maybe Wenceel Perez, Justyn-Henry Malloy and Matt Vierling can stick long-term.
Still, that’s not nearly enough. They need so much more.
The Orioles have so much extra offensive talent that their Triple-A team could probably outscore the Tigers over 162 games (I’m exaggerating. Well, maybe).
It’s possible that, if done correctly, a Skubal trade could bring three above-average everyday players to Detroit in one fell swoop. That opportunity doesn’t come along very often.
So, let’s wait and see. If a deal with Baltimore gets done, I think it could be a massive (if bittersweet) victory for Tigers fans.
But if not, hanging onto the best pitcher in the world isn’t a bad consolation prize.