DETROIT – I think we need to have a serious discussion about this Tarik Skubal trade situation.
The Tom Verducci report earlier this week stoked the flames surrounding the Detroit Tigers’ ace, who then went out and delivered a 1-2-3 second inning in his first All-Star appearance.
If you want my full, in-depth breakdown of Verducci’s report, click here. The gist is that the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers are preparing to send the Tigers some massive offers for Skubal.
“Sources from the Dodgers and Orioles confirmed they are interested in putting together packages loaded with top prospects for Skubal,” he wrote.
We don’t need to spend a lot of time on my thoughts about Skubal and his value. Again, you can get those in the link above. He’s arguably the best pitcher in the world right now, and he’s under team control for two more years after this season.
So the Dodgers or Orioles could have him for three full postseason runs.
Remembering the Juan Soto trade
It’s nearly unheard of for a player as dominant and established as Skubal to be traded two and a half years before he hits free agency for the first time.
It reminds me of when the Nationals decided to ship Juan Soto to San Diego in 2022.
The Padres already knew they were a playoff team, but they wanted to add an elite player to put them over the top. They decided that player was Soto, and they were going to do basically whatever it took to land him.
Soto was also under team control for two and a half years at the time of the trade. Like Skubal, he was one of the top players at his position.
And the Nationals got an unbelievable haul in return.
They received a pair of consensus top-25 prospects in C.J. Abrams and Robert Hassell III, a top-100 teenage prospect in James Wood, and the recent No. 1 pitching prospect in MacKenzie Gore.
- Padres received:
- ▶️ OF Juan Soto.
- ▶️ 1B Josh Bell.
- Nationals received:
- ▶️ SS C.J. Abrams.
- ▶️ OF James Wood.
- ▶️ P MacKenzie Gore.
- ▶️ OF Robert Hassell III.
- ▶️ P Jarlin Susana.
Fast forward to 2024. Abrams is a budding star at the MLB level, Wood is Baseball America’s No. 1 overall prospect, and Gore is a solid young starter.
Hassell has fallen off, but he’s only 22. And even if he doesn’t bounce back, three out of four isn’t bad when it comes to betting on prospects.
Skubal is worth just as much
If the Tigers trade Skubal before the July 30 deadline, they should get just as much in return as the Nationals did in that Soto deal.
I’ve seen some speculation on social media that, for example, Coby Mayo would be enough on his own to get Skubal. Don’t even justify that with a response. And no, the Tigers don’t want Cedric Mullins. Or Kyle Stowers. Or freaking Ryan O’Hearn.
This deal is going to take at least three elite prospects or young MLB players.
Skubal is a 27-year-old lefty who throws 100 mph and has two elite swing-and-miss secondary pitches. That’s every bit as valuable as Soto (a .400 OBP outfielder) -- maybe even more valuable in a postseason series.
So if teams aren’t willing to completely break the prospect bank to acquire Skubal, the Tigers should simply hang up and continue to enjoy his services for at least another year.
But there is a scenario where a trade would make sense for Detroit.
Why it has to be Baltimore
I wrote Tuesday that while I’ve always felt the Tigers should keep Skubal, a bidding war involving the Orioles would change my mind.
Since then, I’ve dug a bit deeper into prospect lists. Some teams (like the Cubs, Twins, and Brewers) have enough prospects and young players to get a deal done, but probably lack the motivation. Others (like the Dodgers) might want Skubal but lack the prospects.
The Tigers and Orioles seem like perfect dance partners. Detroit has long struggled to develop hitters, while the Orioles have too many young stars to fit in a lineup. Conversely, the Tigers are a pitching factory and the Orioles can’t build a healthy rotation.
The Orioles are in the early stages of a World Series window, but their starting pitching remains a major question mark. Corbin Burnes is a free agent after this season, but even now they have to pray for rain after him and Grayson Rodriguez.
Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on the 60-day injured list. Albert Suarez is 34 years old and greatly outperforming his underlying numbers. Cole Irvin and Dean Kremer -- no.
📊 Chart: Current Orioles starting pitchers’ MLB percentile rankings.
Does anybody really think the Orioles are going to place the fate of the Adley Rutschman-Gunnar Henderson era on the backs of guys like Irvin and Kremer?
It seems especially unlikely after last year’s team -- which went into the playoffs with 101 wins and the No. 1 seed -- got swept in the Divisional Series because of their starters:
- Game 1: 4.2 innings, 7 hits, 2 runs.
- Game 2: 1.2 innings, 6 hits, 4 walks, 5 runs.
- Games 3: 1.2 innings, 7 hits, 6 runs.
That’s 13 runs in eight innings for their starting pitchers. Those final two games were basically over before the Orioles could even bat through their lineup.
Can you imagine suffering through six straight years of fourth or fifth place -- losing 108+ games three times along the way -- only to finally break through with a magical 101-61 record across six months, and then it’s all wasted because two starting pitchers had bad innings?
Everything the Orioles have done over the past decade led to this point, right now. They have two of the best young players in the game and surrounded them with an excellent group of complimentary pieces. The bullpen has four relievers sporting ERAs under 3.00 and two more under 4.00.
If Baltimore could compliment all that with a trio of Skubal, Burnes, and Rodriguez atop the rotation -- whew. That’s probably why the front office is ready to finally pay up (if Verducci’s source is correct).
Tigers trade targets
So, let’s talk names. If the Tigers and Orioles discuss Skubal, there are six Orioles to watch:
- Third baseman Coby Mayo (22).
- Catcher Samuel Basallo (19).
- Infielder Jordan Westberg (25).
- Outfielder Colton Cowser (24).
- Outfielder Heston Kjerstad (24).
- Second baseman Connor Norby (24).
I don’t think the Orioles would include Jackson Holliday in discussions (nor would I expect them to). If they did, it would certainly change my stance that at least three players are required to make this deal.
Note that Westburg, Cowser, and Kjerstad are all playing regularly for the Orioles, but because of Holliday, Mayo, and Norby, they might be available.
Jordan Westburg
Westburg is sporting an .814 OPS and 2.4 WAR through 89 games this season as a 25-year-old. He was a first-round pick in 2020 and shredded the minors for two years before getting the call.
The underlying numbers support Westburg as someone who makes excellent contact. He ranks above the 80th percentile in all the expected stats, as well as average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate.
While there’s some swing-and-miss in his bat, Westburg’s 22.2% strikeout rate is only slightly worse than league average. He had an excellent walk rate (11%) in the minors, too, so his overall plate discipline isn’t a concern.
Westburg has 92nd percentile sprint speed and grades out slightly below average as a fielder. He’s basically split time between second and third base at the MLB level.
He played 68 games at the MLB level last season, but didn’t use a year of service time, so he’s under team control for another five years after 2024.
Colton Cowser
If the Orioles had to trade one of their MLB three (Westburg, Cowser, and Kjerstad), my guess is they’d be most willing to part with Cowser.
At the end of April, Cowser owned a .303 average, .372 OBP, and 1.004 OPS across 28 games, with six homers and seven doubles.
The past three months haven’t been nearly as kind. Cowser is hitting just .183 with a .606 OPS and six homers over his past 60 games.
But the overall numbers are still fine, and Cowser won’t even turn 25 until next spring. He’s also grading out as an excellent defensive left fielder with a strong arm, elite range, and 76th percentile speed.
The underlying numbers show that Cowser makes elite contact... when he makes contact. He’s 82nd percentile in average exit velocity, 89th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 92nd percentile in barrel rate.
He even manages to walk in 9.3% of his plate appearances, which is well above MLB average.
The problem is a 31.7% whiff rate and 29.6% strikeout rate. Cowser just isn’t making enough contact to be an elite player -- yet. His 25% strikeout rate in the minors foreshadowed this issue, but I’m not convinced he’ll hover near 30% for his whole career.
Like Westburg, Cowser debuted in 2023, but not early enough to count toward his service time. He’s under team control for five more years after 2024.
Heston Kjerstad
We don’t have nearly as much data on Kjerstad at the MLB level because he’s only played in 21 games this season, partly due to injury and partly because the Orioles simply don’t have room for him most of the time.
But this guy dominates the minor leagues. In 122 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season, he hit .303 with a .904 OPS and 58 extra-base hits.
He’s batting .301 with 16 homers and 14 doubles in 56 games at Triple-A this season.
Kjerstad got about two straight weeks of playing time for the Orioles before going on the concussion IL right before the All-Star break. He took advantage of that opportunity, hitting .378 with a 1.141 OPS and three homers.
Kjerstad is a rookie this season despite playing 13 games for Baltimore in 2023, so he’s under team control for five more years after 2024.
Coby Mayo
Mayo is Baltimore’s No. 2 prospect behind Holliday, according to Baseball America, which has Mayo at No. 12 overall and No. 2 at third base (behind Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero).
It’s unclear which corner of the infield Mayo will end up at, but the Tigers have a need at both, so that wouldn’t be a major hurdle in potential trade discussions.
Mayo’s calling card is his massive power, which earned a 70 grade (on a 20-80 scale) from Baseball America and a 65 from MLB Pipeline. He has 19 homers and 17 doubles in 65 games at Triple-A this season, paring that power with a .301 average and .381 OBP.
The breakout came last year, which Mayo split between Double-A and Triple-A. He finished with a combined 29 homers and 45 doubles while posting a .410 OBP.
Strikeouts look like a bit of an issue, but his 24% rate at Triple-A this season isn’t bad, especially considering he won’t turn 23 until December.
Samuel Basallo
Both major prospect publications have Basallo in their top 20.
Last year, he started in A-ball for 83 games, got promoted to High-A for 27 more, and then earned a four-game cameo in Double-A. Overall, he slashed .313/.402/.551 with 20 homers, 26 doubles, seven triples, and 12 steals.
As an 18-year-old.
Basallo turns 20 next month, and he’s holding his own at Double-A, with 12 homers, 14 doubles, and a .338 OBP through 75 games.
Whether he ends up at catcher or first base wouldn’t much matter to the Tigers, because they’ve got holes to fill at both spots.
Connor Norby
Norby isn’t quite the caliber of prospect as the other five on this list. He was more of a fringe top-100 guy last year.
But the numbers speak for themselves. Norby went all the way from High-A to Triple-A as a 22-year-old in 2022 and then spent all of 2023 at Triple-A, hitting .290 with 21 homers, 40 doubles, and a .359 OBP.
In 77 minor-league games this season, Norby owns a .296/386/.524 slash line with 16 homers and 21 doubles. He’s obviously major-league ready, but the Orioles could only find room for him for four games in early June before sending him back down.
Norby just turned 24 in June, so his age isn’t a concern. His rookie status is still intact, and it looks like it might remain that way through 2024, giving him a full six years of team control.
Final thoughts
As you can see, it takes a special combination of young players and prospects to even consider trading a pitcher as good as Skubal.
This isn’t a Matthew Boyd situation, and it’s not like giving up a half-season of Michael Lorenzen or Jack Flaherty, either.
For once, the Tigers have all the leverage. Especially if the Dodgers and Orioles are both making bids.
It also helps that the starting pitcher market looks pretty bleak:
- Tyler Anderson has been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league (a 2.97 ERA vs. a 4.42 expected ERA). His new team is likely to be hit with a healthy dose of regression.
- Garrett Crochet is a stud, but he’s also a first-time starter who’s already surpassed 100 innings after throwing just 24.2 total the last two years. I’m not sure how many more innings he’s got left in 2024.
- Jesus Luzardo is on the 60-day IL with a back injury.
- Chris Bassitt, Zack Littell, Yusei Kikuchi, and Eric Fedde are more back-end stopgaps than actual difference-makers.
- Jack Flaherty is excellent, but again, he’s a rental. He’s also been dealing with a lingering back issue.
- Nathan Eovaldi is reliable and has been excellent in the playoffs. He’s a rental, though, and 34 years old.
Unlike in previous years, if the Tigers tell other teams they’re happy to hold onto Skubal, it won’t be an obvious bluff.
The Tigers are only three games below .500 this season, and their record when they score at least two runs is 45-28. They also won eight of their final 10 games before the break -- seven of them against first-place teams.
It’s entirely possible that the Tigers can make a few small moves and be playoff contenders the next two years, with Skubal as the biggest piece. So teams can’t simply wait the Tigers out, knowing they have to make a move eventually (think: Eduardo Rodriguez).
The combination of Skubal’s talent, his team control, weak alternative pitching options, and the Tigers’ trajectory creates a perfect seller’s market.
But only if the price is right.
