DETROIT – There are nine days left until the MLB trade deadline, and we still don’t know whether the Detroit Tigers will be buyers or sellers.
On one hand, the Tigers have two valuable trade pieces at a scarce position. On the other, they’re still technically in the wild card race and playing their best baseball.
I’ll make a case for both sides of this argument and then tell you my opinion.
Why Tigers should be buyers
The case for buying is simple: For the first time in eight years, the Tigers are actually within shouting distance of the playoffs post-All-Star break.
After opening the second half with a series victory in Toronto, the Tigers are six games behind the Twins and Royals for the final two AL wild card spots. They’re five games behind the Red Sox, 3.5 games behind the Mariners, and 1.5 games behind the Rays.
The Tigers have won four series in a row -- two against first-place teams and two against playoff hopefuls on the road. They’re 10-3 over that span.
It would be a hard pill to swallow if the Tigers give up on the season right when they finally started to play their best baseball.
Here’s the tricky part: If the Tigers are buyers, they’re obviously hanging onto both of their primary trade chips: Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty.
It’s easy to make a case for keeping Skubal. He’s perhaps the best pitcher in baseball and still under team control for two more seasons. If the Tigers hope to be competitive these next three playoff races, having a bonafide ace as their centerpiece is a very good place to start.
Flaherty is on a one-year deal, so the Tigers definitely risk losing him for nothing (other than draft pick compensation) if they decide not to make a trade. But the return for rentals is often small enough to justify gambling on a playoff run.
Why Tigers should be sellers
It’s much easier to make the case for selling.
First of all, while the Tigers are still alive in the playoff race, don’t get it twisted: The standings don’t look promising.
The AL Central is already out of the question, with the Guardians up 11 games on the Tigers. And being six games out of the wild card race is worse when you’re behind five others vying for those same two spots.
There’s also the crushing development of Reese Olson’s injury. The Tigers rode the trio of Skubal, Flaherty, and Olson to this point in the season, and losing one is devastating for their hopes down the stretch.
Especially if his injury means Kenta Maeda will reenter the rotation.
I also don’t think there are many good fits for the Tigers on the trade market. They need to upgrade at every infield position except second base, but they aren’t going to pay up for Vlad Guerrero Jr., Pete Alonso, Bo Bichette, or Cody Bellinger.
I have a strict no-trading-with-the-Rays policy, which eliminates Yandy Diaz and Isaac Paredes (can you imagine).
If that means the best they could do is a currently injured Luis Rengifo or a removed-from-Coors-Field Ryan McMahon, I’m not sure it’s enough of an improvement to justify.
If the Tigers decide to sell, don’t think of it as if they’re wasting this winning streak. View it as a chance to capitalize on leverage.
The Tigers have gotten close enough to a playoff spot that Scott Harris will actually have a leg to stand on in trade discussions. Even when teams call about Flaherty, he could suggest the Tigers are happy not to make a trade, and other front offices would have to take him seriously.
If they don’t believe him, he can always point to last year’s Eduardo Rodriguez situation (which was handled incorrectly but could be used to Harris’ advantage here).
Ultimately, it’s probably not wise to pass on a Flaherty trade. No, he’s not going to land the Tigers an elite prospect, but he should be viewed as more valuable than Michael Lorenzen was last season, and the prospect from that deal, Hao-Yu Lee, is tearing up Double-A as a 21-year-old right now.
The Tigers fixed Flaherty and put his career back on track. If they don’t trade him, then there’s a chance they get absolutely no reward.
Then, there’s the Skubal situation.
If the Orioles really are prepared to make an epic offer for Skubal -- especially as part of a bidding war against the Dodgers -- that opportunity might be too much for the Tigers to pass up.
Baltimore has enough prospects to set the Tigers up at multiple positions well into the future. Imagine if mega prospect Jackson Holliday even becomes part of the discussion.
The thing about the “sell” argument is that it can take on two very different forms. If the Tigers sell but keep Skubal, it looks very different than if they actually trade their young ace.
Here’s what I think they should do
You can probably tell which way I’m leaning: As it stands, the Tigers should sell.
It’s so tempting to say the Tigers should go all-in for a playoff spot because we’ve been subjected to meaningless baseball for so long. I’m tired of watching them trade away their good players in July and concede any shot at the postseason.
But what it really comes down to is I don’t think they’re capable of stringing together a long enough winning streak to pass four of the five teams ahead of them. Especially without Olson.
Fixing Flaherty and then letting him walk away for nothing would feel like such a waste. And the more I think about it, a fit like the one between Skubal and this year’s Orioles will never again align so perfectly.
If the Tigers handle the trade deadline correctly, there’s no reason they can’t set themselves up for the future while also making the team better for next season -- maybe even for the second half of this year.
Imagine if a Skubal trade upgraded the everyday lineup at three positions. The Tigers would suddenly have a pretty decent offense with guys like Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Colt Keith, Matt Vierling, Justyn-Henry Malloy, and Wenceel Perez mixed in.
This would be a hypothetical dream scenario:
- Riley Greene, LF
- Jackson Holliday, SS
- Kerry Carpenter, DH
- Jace Jung, 3B
- Colt Keith, 2B
- Coby Mayo, 1B
- Wenceel Perez, RF
- Jake Rogers, C
- Parker Meadows, CF
Now, I want to make two caveats.
First, if the trade offers for Skubal are anything less than what I outlined in last week’s article (click here), the Tigers should not accept a deal.
Second, if the Tigers manage to claw within three or four games of a playoff spot before the deadline, then the possible reward of going for it might outweigh the chance to acquire prospects.
The Tigers play their next 16 games against teams currently ahead of them in the playoff race, including six against first-place Cleveland. If they can make up ground against that schedule, it might make me a believer.
And we could all use some meaningful September baseball.
The most likely scenario is probably that the Tigers trade Flaherty, keep Skubal, and finish this season somewhere around .500. It’s not the most exciting script, but at least it’s an improvement.