DETROIT – Most people think if the Detroit Tigers trade Tarik Skubal this week, they’d be giving up on this season, but that’s not necessarily the case.
Skubal, 27, is the best pitcher in the world right now. He ranks second in MLB with a 2.34 ERA, second with a 0.92 WHIP, and third with 146 strikeouts.
Nobody else in the league even ranks among the top three in two of those categories.
It seems ridiculous to suggest the Tigers could part with such an elite talent and actually improve their team.
But I really do think it’s possible.
The Baltimore Orioles just might be desperate enough to offer the Tigers three or four MLB-ready prospects. And they happen to be the franchise with the best offensive prospects to offer.
I don’t expect the Tigers to trade Skubal this season. It’s hard to willingly give up an elite left-handed starter when you still have team control for two more years.
I’m also skeptical that the Orioles would pull the trigger on some of the mega deals that are being bandied about by MLB insiders. But several people in the know seem to think Baltimore is motivated to make a serious run at Skubal.
When I broke down what it would have to take for the Tigers to give up Skubal, I included six possible players in the Baltimore organization:
- Corner infielder Coby Mayo (22).
- Catcher Samuel Basallo (19).
- Infielder Jordan Westberg (25).
- Outfielder Colton Cowser (24).
- Outfielder Heston Kjerstad (24).
- Second baseman Connor Norby (24).
Apparently, acquiring No. 1 MLB prospect Jackson Holliday might not be out of the question. If that’s the case, the Tigers could really beef up their offense in one fell swoop.
Let’s assume the Orioles don’t want to take away from their MLB roster, so Westberg and Cowser are off the table. That still leaves the Tigers with an embarrassment of options to peruse.
Here’s how the Tigers could trade Skubal to the Orioles and improve this year’s roster.
1. Jackson Holliday
It’s hard to overstate how much this would help the Tigers at shortstop.
So far this season, the Tigers have been by far -- and I mean by far -- the worst team in baseball in terms of shortstop production.
Detroit shortstops have posted a .489 OPS this season, which is a full 88 points lower than the 29th-ranked Braves, who have gotten a .577 OPS from their shortstops.
Everybody knows about the struggles of Javier Baez, the team’s primary shortstop. In just 62 games, he’s managed to be worth negative 1.6 WAR. He’s pretty comfortably the worst player in the league.
Holliday could come to Detroit and be an immediate improvement at the most important infield position.
As the No. 1 prospect in the league (per MLB Pipeline -- he’s No. 2 for Baseball America), Holliday received a rare 70 grade as a hitter. He also has well above-average power and speed, as well as a strong throwing arm and a good glove.
At 20 years old, Holliday could immediately turn the Tigers’ greatest weakness into a strength. Is it a sure thing? No, prospects never are. But if Holliday even comes close to reaching his potential, he would be an enormous upgrade over Baez.
So far this season, Skubal has been worth 5.0 WAR. If you replace Baez with Holliday, I think you can make up half of that number by the end of the season through improved shortstop play.
2. Coby Mayo
Guess where else the Tigers have been terrible: First base. Their .599 OPS by first basemen this season ranks 29th in the league, only ahead of the Houston Astros.
If the Tigers also land Mayo in the deal, they could elect to make him the everyday starter at either corner infield position. But first base might be the more urgent need, especially with Jace Jung on the doorstep of the big leagues.
Mayo, the No. 15 prospect on MLB Pipeline and No. 12 for Baseball America, is lauded for his 65-grade power tool.
Last season, in 140 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, Mayo hit 29 homers and 45 doubles. He’s already hit 19 bombs in 68 Triple-A games this season.
But Mayo has also been flashing an excellent hit tool, which was not thought to be his strength as a prospect. He hit .290 last season with a .410 on-base percentage, and he’s hitting .297 with a .375 OBP this year.
There’s some swing-and-miss in Mayo’s bat, but he’s slugging at an elite rate as a 22-year-old in the highest level of the minors, so the Tigers could certainly use his bat.
3. Connor Norby
The No. 5 prospect in Baltimore’s system isn’t ranked among the top 100, but he’s destroying Triple-A pitching for the second year in a row and clearly ready for another shot in the big leagues.
There’s no opening in the Baltimore lineup for Norby, but he would certainly start everyday for the Tigers. They currently only have one sure-fire everyday starter in the outfield (Riley Greene), and even if you want to include Wenceel Perez as a second, there’s no immediate answer in left field.
Mark Canha has been cold, and he’s also been playing some infield. Justyn-Henry Malloy is giving the Tigers a power surge, but he’s probably best positioned as a designated hitter.
Since a brief four-game stint with the MLB club in early June, Norby is batting .316 in Triple-A with seven homers and a .951 OPS.
In 227 career games at that level, he’s slashing .296/.371/.505 with 41 homers and 63 doubles.
What the lineup could look like
There’s no doubt the Tigers would be worse off every fifth game without Skubal, but the question is whether upgrading at three everyday positions could make up that gap.
I think this trio might do it.
Holliday could replace Baez. Mayo could replace the first-base rotation and allow Gio Urshela to move back over to third base. Norby could start every day in left field.
- Riley Greene, CF
- Jackson Holliday, SS
- Colt Keith, 2B
- Coby Mayo, 1B
- Connor Norby, LF
- Wenceel Perez, RF
- Justyn-Henry Malloy, DH
- Gio Urshela, 3B
- Jake Rogers, C
That doesn’t look half bad. Suddenly ,the Tigers have three young stars at the top and a lot more power in the heart of the lineup, even without the injured Kerry Carpenter.
Is that enough to make up about 3.0 extra WAR, which is probably what Skubal will be worth the rest of the season? That’s certainly not out of the question.
I know, prospects aren’t a sure thing. You can never truly know whether a prospect is going to pan out. Trading a proven star like Skubal for unproven commodities is scary.
But let’s just say your options are this or losing Skubal to free agency in two years. Wouldn’t it be better to try to overhaul the offense?
This is a really tough call for Scott Harris, and he can always just say no and keep Skubal in Detroit. But if this type of offer comes in, he might need to make the hard decision.