DETROIT – Going into this year’s deadline, I didn’t want the Detroit Tigers to trade Tarik Skubal. But over the past week, I’ve changed my mind.
Here’s the question that made me flip: Can the Tigers be World Series contenders within the next two years?
Have you thought about it that way?
As the hours count down to 6 p.m. Tuesday, the direction of the Tigers organization hangs in the balance. That might sound like hyperbole, but it’s not. Today is that important.
Skubal’s immense trade value
In Skubal, the Tigers have by far the league’s most valuable trade chip. And the timing couldn’t be better: It just happens to coincide with a deadline of very few sellers and even fewer decent pitchers.
To have the best pitcher in baseball in a year when teams are fighting over Yusei Kikuchi? It’s like a dream. This is the best leverage the Tigers will ever have.
On Monday night, the Houston Astros gave up one of their top pitching prospects, an MLB-ready power hitter, and a Triple-A prospect with a .424 on-base percentage (on his birthday!) in exchange for a half season of Kikuchi.
This season, Kikuchi has a 4.75 ERA, a 4.00 expected ERA, and a 1.34 WHIP. His surface numbers are bad, and his underlying metrics are, at best, average.
And yet, the Astros gave up two high-end prospects and a legitimate third player just to get Kikuchi for about eight or nine starts.
The implications of that deal on Skubal’s value are immense.
Tigers struggle to develop hitters
We all know the Tigers have struggled to develop home-grown hitters. Nearly every single one of the franchise’s top hitters from the past 20 years have come via trade or free agency.
There was the Miguel Cabrera trade. The Ian Kinsler trade. The Victor Martinez signing. The Magglio Ordonez signing. I could go on and on.
The only difference makers who truly came up through the Tigers’ organization were Curtis Granderson, Nick Castellanos, and Riley Greene. I’ll give partial credit for J.D. Martinez. That’s four players in 20 years.
Here’s the other problem: The Tigers don’t spend money like they used to. According to Spotrac, they’re 22nd in MLB payrolls, and there’s no reason to believe owner Chris Ilitch is planning to move up those ranks.
So if you can’t develop hitters and you can’t sign free agents, how do you build a World Series-caliber offense?
You have to trade.
It’s never been more difficult to pry top prospects away from trade partners. Young players under team control are more coveted than ever, so it takes a special talent like Skubal to even get your foot in the door.
When will there be another opportunity for the Tigers to acquire meaningful, young, everyday talent? The opportunity might never be as ripe as it is for the next six hours.
Baltimore Orioles
It’s not just that the market heavily favors sellers, and it’s not just that the Tigers have the best pitcher available. There also just so happens to be a team that desperately needs starting pitching and has the prospects to justify a blockbuster trade.
And on top of that, the top prospects in that organization perfectly fit the needs of the Tigers organization.
What is Detroit’s greatest weakness? Shortstop. What do the Orioles have? A 20-year-old shortstop who’s the No. 1 prospect in baseball.
Where else are the Tigers hurting? Both corner infield spots. Who is Baltimore’s No. 3 prospect? A 22-year-old who plays both third and first base while obliterating minor-league pitching.
The Orioles have so much young talent on their major-league roster that these prospects who would normally be untouchable just might be on the table.
But only if the Orioles get exactly what they need to push them over the top. And that’s precisely what only the Detroit Tigers have to offer.
Not convinced? Fine, we’ll dive even deeper into the Baltimore situation. On offense, they’re as World Series-ready as any team in baseball. Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Jordan Westburg are young superstars, and they’re surrounded with an excellent supporting cast.
But the pitching is a major problem. Their ace, Corbin Burnes, is a free agent at the end of the season, while their No. 2 pitcher is a 24-year-old with consistency issues.
Beyond those two, the rotation has been decimated by major injuries. If the Orioles don’t make a trade for this season, they risk wasting another year of their World Series window. If they don’t make a trade for a pitcher who’s under contract beyond this year, they risk even more than that.
With Skubal and Burnes in the rotation this postseason, the Orioles would be World Series favorites. Then, with Skubal in the fold for each of the next two years, the Orioles could survive the loss of Burnes and build around another ace.
Do you expect the Tigers will ever find a more perfect match?
Next 2 Tigers seasons
Let’s return to the original question: Can the Tigers be World Series contenders within in next two years?
This year is already down the drain. The Tigers are 13 games behind Cleveland in the division and 6.5 back in the wild card race. Reese Olson is injured and Jack Flaherty will soon be traded.
So that brings us to next year. Would the additions of Jace Jung and Jackson Jobe make the Tigers contenders -- especially without Flaherty? I certainly have my doubts.
Then what’s the plan for 2026, when Skubal will be an impending free agent?
Skubal is represented by Scott Boras, which means he’s going to hit free agency and wait for a bidding war. The Tigers aren’t going to break the bank for a 30-year-old starting pitcher who had Tommy John surgery in college (nor should they, necessarily) -- it’s just not their style.
So if -- and it’s a big “if,” because we don’t actually know if the Orioles are willing to make a huge offer -- Skubal leaves in free agency after 2026 and the Tigers get nothing, this trade deadline could go down as a missed opportunity for the ages.
There’s always a chance the Orioles prospects won’t pan out. But we know the Tigers are nowhere near World Series caliber with their current lineup, and we have plenty of data to suggest they won’t develop enough of their own minor leaguers to build a strong lineup.
So when I think about unlikelihood of the Tigers becoming contenders by 2026 and combine it with all of these factors, I find myself hoping they make a deal.
Here’s a recap of all the factors that changed my mind:
- The Astros-Blue Jays trade shows it’s a ridiculous seller’s market.
- The Tigers have the best starting pitcher on the market.
- There aren’t any other proven starters available (other than Jack Flaherty), increasing demand for Skubal.
- Baltimore is desperate to improve its pitching for 2024 and beyond.
- Baltimore has the prospects to make a deal.
- Baltimore has the young MLB talent to justify parting with those prospects.
- Baltimore’s top prospects line up with the Tigers’ greatest needs.
- The Tigers struggle to develop their own offensive talent.
- The Tigers don’t spend big money in free agency.
- The Tigers aren’t likely to be World Series contenders before Skubal hits free agency.
- The Tigers have proven they can get the most out of pitchers and build a strong starting rotation.
I don’t know if there’s a franchise-changing offer on the table for Skubal. If not, the Tigers should obviously keep him around. But if there is, the more I think about it, the Tigers should swing for the fences.
