DETROIT – The Detroit Tigers are firmly in the playoff mix with a few weeks left in the season, and there’s a good chance tiebreakers could come into play.
Playoff race
As of Tuesday morning, Sept. 10, the Tigers trail the Minnesota Twins by three games for the final wild card spot in the American League.
Meanwhile, Detroit, Boston, and Seattle are all tied at 73-71, with 18 games remaining. Tampa Bay is two games behind that trio, and Texas is one game behind Tampa Bay.
The Royals are 2.5 games ahead of the Twins, so they’re pretty safely in the second wild card spot, for now.
MLB playoff tiebreakers
Since Major League Baseball increased the number of playoff teams in each league to six, the Game 163 tiebreaker has been eliminated.
Now, if teams finish tied for a playoff spot -- or if seeding needs to be sorted out -- there are a number of predetermined tiebreakers to go through.
The first is simple: Head-to-head record. If two teams are tied, then whichever team won the most head-to-head meetings gets the nod. If more than two teams are tied, the combined winning percentage of all those teams in games against each other are compared.
If, at that point, there are two teams tied for the best head-to-head record among that group, those two teams go through the two-team tiebreaking procedure.
For example, let’s say the White Sox, Angels, and Athletics tie for the final wildcard spot. If the White Sox went a combined 4-2 against those other two teams, the Athletics went 1-5, and the Angels went 4-2, the Athletics would be eliminated from consideration. The head-to-head record between the White Sox and Angels would then determine the wild card team.
If head-to-head record isn’t enough to break the tie, each team’s record within its own division is compared. Even if teams aren’t in the same division, the one with the better divisional record advances.
After that, the third tiebreaker is overall record against the American League.
We won’t need to go any further down the list, but if you want to read through it all, click here.
Tigers and Twins
If the Tigers finish the season tied with the Twins and nobody else, the Twins will earn the playoff spot because they won seven of 13 games against the Tigers.
Tigers and Mariners
The Tigers own the tiebreaker with the Mariners because they won five of the six matchups.
Tigers and Red Sox
The Tigers also won the season series against the Red Sox, 4-3.
Tigers and Rays
Currently, the Tigers own the tiebreaker with the Rays because they won two of three games in Tampa Bay earlier this season.
The two teams will play a three-game series at Comerica Park from Sept. 24-26, so this head-to-head tiebreaker is still to be determined.
Tigers and Rangers
The Tigers lost four of seven games against the Rangers this season.
Fortunately, the Rangers are six games out of the wild card spot and almost surely won’t factor into this equation.
Tigers, Mariners, and Twins
Even though the Tigers won five of six games against the Mariners, that still wouldn’t be enough to make the playoffs in this scenario.
The Twins went 5-2 against Seattle, so combined with their 7-6 record against the Tigers, their overall head-to-head record against the Tigers and Mariners is 12-8.
The Tigers went 5-1 against the Mariners and 6-7 against the Twins, giving them an 11-8 overall record. They would fall a half-game short of tying the Twins, but remember, even tying the Twins wouldn’t be good enough, because it would then go to the Tigers-Twins head-to-head record.
Tigers, Red Sox, and Twins
This is the most realistic chance for the Tigers to win a tiebreaker with the Twins. Unfortunately, it still wouldn’t end with the Tigers in the playoffs.
Right now, the Twins have a 2-1 record against Boston, but the two teams will play three games at Fenway Park from Sept. 20-22.
If the Twins win even one of those three games, then the Tigers can’t beat them in a tiebreaker. The Twins would finish at least 3-3 against the Red Sox, giving them (at worst) a 10-9 record in this tiebreaker. The Tigers finished with a 10-10 record against the Red Sox and Twins.
But if the Twins get swept, they would fall to 9-10 against the Tigers and Red Sox, therefore giving the Tigers a better record in this comparison.
But in that scenario, the Red Sox would finish with a 7-6 record against the Tigers and Twins, which is technically a better record by winning percentage than 10-9.
That means the Red Sox would make the playoffs over the Tigers.
Tigers, Mariners, and Red Sox
The Tigers finished 4-3 against the Red Sox and 5-1 against the Mariners, giving them a 9-4 record in this tiebreaker.
The Red Sox went 7-7, while the Mariners went 4-9, so the Tigers would make the playoffs in this scenario (assuming the Twins finish below all three teams).
Tigers, Red Sox, Mariners, and Twins
It’s extremely unlikely that all four teams will end up with the same record, but hey, it’s technically possible.
Here are all four teams’ records against this group:
- Tigers: 15-11.
- Twins: 14-9.
- Red Sox: 8-9.
- Mariners: 6-14.
The only remaining head-to-head series among these teams is that three-game set between the Twins and Red Sox in Boston.
Once again, the Tigers need the Twins to lose all three games to win the tiebreaker between those two teams. The Twins would be 15-11 overall if they win one game against the Red Sox, and then they would advance based on their head-to-head record against the Tigers.
But if the Twins lose all three games, they would be eliminated from this tiebreaker. The Red Sox would finish with an 11-9 record (.550 winning percentage), which doesn’t match up with the Tigers’ .577 winning percentage in these games.
So yes, if the Tigers, Twins, Red Sox, and Mariners all finish with the same record and the Red Sox sweep the Twins in Boston next week, the Tigers would go to the playoffs.
Rays tiebreakers
Obviously, we don’t have enough information to really break down tiebreakers involving the Rays because the Tigers still have to play them three times. But it’s unlikely that the Rays make up five games of ground on the Twins in time to become a factor.
The Rangers face an even steeper climb.
Adding fifth and sixth teams to this mix would create so many more combinations of teams that I might not finish before the Tigers take the field tonight against the Rockies.
If the Tigers remain in the playoff race and the Rays and Rangers make up some ground, I’ll do a full breakdown of all 31 (!!!) possible tie combinations next week.
