DETROIT – The Detroit Tigers won a critical series over the weekend to remain in the playoff picture. But time is quickly running out.
There are only 12 games left on the schedule, and the Tigers remain 2.5 games behind the Minnesota Twins for the final wild card spot.
Since they don’t hold the head-to-head tiebreaker (full tiebreaker details here), the Tigers have to finish at least a full game ahead of the Twins to make the postseason.
So every night is starting to feel like a must-win. And honestly, we’re getting close to the point where that becomes reality.
Twins schedule
To determine what the Tigers need down the stretch, we first have to predict how the Twins finish in their final 13 games.
It’s not an easy road. This week, they’ve got a seven-game road trip with four in Cleveland and three in Boston.
Let’s just say the Twins go 3-4 on that road trip. They’ll probably come home and sweep a three-game set with the Marlins, and then, maybe they lose two of three to the Orioles.
That would give the Twins a final record of 86-76. Then, the Tigers would need to win 10 of their final 12 games to make the playoffs.
The absolute worst-case scenario for the Twins is probably 5-8 down the stretch. That’s if they lose three out of four to the Guardians, two out of three to both the Red Sox and Orioles, and even drop a game against the Marlins.
That would put Minnesota at 84-78. The Tigers would need to go 8-4 down the stretch to make the playoffs in that scenario, which feels much more reasonable, but still a tall task.
Tigers schedule
The reason it’s so unlikely that the Tigers will make the playoffs is because of this week’s schedule.
The Tigers are on the road for six games -- three against the Royals and three against the Orioles. Those aren’t just playoff-bound teams -- they’re also teams with something left to play for.
Baltimore and Kansas City own the top two AL wild card spots, and whoever finishes on top gets to host the other in the first round of the playoffs. They’re both technically still alive in their division races, too.
When the Tigers come back home next week, they have three games with the fading Tampa Bay Rays and three more against the abysmal Chicago White Sox. So they just need to find a way to survive this road trip and give themselves a fighting chance.
Other teams
Since we last broke down the playoff race, the Rangers and Rays have fallen totally out of the picture.
The Red Sox are hanging on by a thread, at two games behind the Tigers.
Seattle is keeping pace, with an identical record as the Tigers, at 77-73.
The Red Sox have a manageable remaining schedule, with three games against the Twins, six against the Rays, and three against the Blue Jays. The Rays and Blue Jays aren’t awful, but they’re out of contention.
The Mariners have a bit of a tougher road. Two series against the first-place Yankees and Astros remain, with additional three-game sets against the Rangers and pesky A’s.
It’s worth keeping an eye on Seattle, but if the Tigers win enough games to pass the Twins, it feels like that should be enough to stay ahead of the Mariners. It helps that Detroit owns that tiebreaker.
