DETROIT – There are only 10 games left in the regular season, and it feels so good to be breaking down possible Detroit Tigers playoff scenarios.
The Tigers were dead. Toast. Kaput. Until they weren’t.
Since falling nine games below .500, 10 games out of a playoff spot, and selling at the trade deadline, the Tigers have been the hottest team in baseball, most recently winning 24 of their last 34 games.
Suddenly, they’re 1.5 games behind the Twins and three games behind the Royals in the race for the final two wild card spots. This isn’t a pipe dream anymore. The Tigers really have a chance.
Let’s take a look at the overall playoff picture.
Standings
Heading into Wednesday night’s games, the Tigers are the top team in the American League beyond the six teams that currently hold playoff spots.
The Twins have the third and final wild card spot, and they’re just a game and a half ahead of the Tigers. Minnesota plays Cleveland during Detroit’s off day on Thursday, so that annoying half-game difference will be taken care of.
We haven’t talked much about the Royals because the Tigers were so far behind them, but with their two head-to-head wins so far this week, it’s only a three-game gap.
If the Tigers can complete the sweep on Wednesday night, then Kansas City becomes a team worth monitoring.
The only other team to follow is the Mariners, who sit 1.5 games behind the Tigers. Seattle also has a game Thursday, so that half-game will be eliminated.
Boston and Tampa Bay aren’t statistically eliminated, but if the Tigers fall below them, they weren’t going to catch the Twins or Royals anyway.
Tiebreakers
Unfortunately for the Tigers, they only control one of the three meaningful tiebreakers.
There’s no more Game 163 in MLB -- ties in the final standings are broken by head-to-head record.
The Tigers lost seven of 13 games against the Twins and are 5-7 against the Royals with one matchup remaining. That means they need to finish a full game ahead of those teams to leap them in the standings.
Detroit did win five of six games against Seattle, though, so in the unlikely event that they both pass the Twins and finish tied, the Tigers would get the playoff spot.
Tigers schedule
The Tigers finish off their series in Kansas City on Wednesday and then head to Baltimore for three games against the Orioles this weekend.
Detroit just won two of three hotly contested battles with Baltimore at Comerica Park. That series is going to be tough, especially as the Orioles fight to hold onto the top wild card spot.
If the Tigers can survive those final four road games, they’ll be in a pretty good spot. They return home for the last six games of the season -- three against the Rays and three against the White Sox.
The White Sox are the worst team in MLB history, and the Rays might officially be eliminated from playoff contention by then.
Twins schedule
The Twins have two more games against the Guardians before they head to Boston for a three-game series. The Red Sox are five games out of a playoff spot right now, so they’re scratching and clawing to stay in the race.
Like the Tigers, the Twins head home for their final six games. They’ll get three against the Marlins, which should be wins, and then three against the Orioles.
It would help the Tigers if the Orioles still have something to play for in that final series.
Royals schedule
Regardless of what happens Wednesday, the Royals shouldn’t have any problem solidifying their playoff spot by the middle of next week.
They get three games against the Giants at home this weekend, and San Francisco is out of playoff contention. Then the Royals hit the road for three against the eliminated Nationals.
Finally, the Royals have three games in Atlanta. That could be a key series Kansas City hasn’t already locked up a spot, because the Braves are also fighting for their lives right now.
Mariners schedule
The Mariners host the Yankees on Wednesday and Thursday before heading on a six-game Texas road trip against the Rangers and Astros.
They finish with three at home against the A’s, who have been pesky the past few months of the season (think 2021 Tigers).
