DETROIT – When the Detroit Tigers arrived in Kansas City earlier this week, their playoff odds were below 10%, even though they were just 2.5 games behind the Twins.
To be exact, Fangraphs had them at 9.9% going into Monday’s game.
After sweeping the Royals and watching the Twins lose three out of four in Cleveland, the Tigers’ odds have skyrocketed to 42.4%, per Fangraphs.
That jump is a result of the Tigers erasing that entire 2.5-game deficit and also getting past three of the toughest remaining games on their schedule.
The Mariners also lost two of three against the Yankees, which improved the odds for both the Twins and the Tigers, to a degree. Seattle is currently two games behind.
Detroit’s toughest remaining series begins Friday night in Baltimore. The Orioles are the third-best team in the American League and still fighting for their own playoff positioning.
The Twins, meanwhile, are heading to Boston for three games. The Red Sox are fading from the playoff race, a full four games back of the Tigers and Twins.
After this weekend, the Tigers and Twins are both off on Monday. Then they’ll play six games apiece at home to officially decide who gets in.
The Tigers host the Rays and White Sox, while the Twins play the Marlins and Orioles.
Remember: If the two teams finish tied, the Twins own the tiebreaker because they won seven of the 13 head-to-head meetings.
But if the Tigers can get through this weekend with the same record as the Twins, they’ll feel really good about their chances. And that percentage will keep rising.
