DETROIT – Another night, another win for the Detroit Tigers, as the hottest team in baseball continues to close in on a playoff spot.
TODAY’S UPDATE: Breaking down the full playoff picture with 3 games left
Every relevant wild card contender won Wednesday night, unless you count the Red Sox and Rays, who were both eliminated.
That makes the American League playoff race much cleaner. In yesterday’s breakdown, we included the long-shot scenarios where those two teams made a late run, but now that’s mathematically off the table.
RELATED: Here’s how much Tigers’ playoff odds have improved last 2 days
Here’s an updated look at the playoff picture with four games left in the regular season.
Minnesota Twins
For a few innings, it looked like the Tigers might become virtual locks for a playoff spot when the Twins fell behind the Marlins 3-0 in the top of the first inning.
But they battled back and broke the game open in the seventh inning to avoid the complete disaster of falling three games back with four to play.
Still, the Twins are playing with their backs against the wall. They trail by two games and need to find a way to pull into a tie with either the Tigers or Royals to get in. Minnesota owns both tiebreakers.
The Twins have one more game against the Marlins before welcoming the Orioles into Target Field. The circumstances surrounding that series could end up being very interesting -- more on that in the Orioles section below.
Kansas City Royals
Once again, the Royals have steadied the ship just when it was about to capsize. They rebounded from a seven-game losing streak in early September to win seven of nine, and now they’ve followed up another seven-game slide with back-to-back wins over Washington.
No, the Nationals aren’t great, but they’ve got some exciting young talent. Luckily for the Royals, they get a chance to feast on Patrick Corbin in the series finale before heading to Atlanta for three games.
The Royals and Tigers are still tied, now at 84-74, which is a perfectly fine outcome for the Tigers.
If Detroit can get through Thursday with the same record as Kansas City, you have to like the chances to jump into the second wild card spot -- since the Tigers play the White Sox and the Royals play the Braves this weekend.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are like that character in a movie who’s hanging from a cliff by their fingertips. They haven’t fallen yet, but it’s coming down to just the index finger.
Wednesday’s win delayed what feels like the inevitable, as Seattle remains 2.5 games behind both the Royals and Tigers. The Mariners only have three games left (against the pesky Oakland A’s), so the best they can finish is 85-77.
Unfortunately for Seattle, it would lose tiebreakers to all three fellow contenders -- the Tigers and Twins because of head-to-head results, and the Royals because of divisional records.
Even if the Mariners sweep the A’s this weekend, they can’t catch the Royals in divisional record -- the Royals went 33-19 in the AL Central, and the Mariners are 29-20 in the West. That’s the second tiebreaker since they split their six head-to-head matchups.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles beat the Yankees again Wednesday night, which means the Tigers’ faint hopes of hosting the wild card round are hanging by a thread.
Baltimore leads the Tigers by four games in the wild card standings with four games left, which means the Tigers have to go 4-0, the Orioles have to go 0-4, and the Royals have to lose at least once more to bring the first round of the playoffs to Comerica Park.
It’s extremely unlikely, but it’s not impossible. The Orioles will face Gerrit Cole in Yankee Stadium on Thursday night and then head to Minnesota for three against the desperate Twins.
Here’s an interesting thought: The worst-case scenario for the Tigers on Thursday is that both the Orioles and Tigers lose. That would eliminate the Orioles from the AL East race but also guarantee that neither the Tigers nor the Royals could catch Baltimore.
So the Orioles would be locked into the first wild card spot, which would give them very little incentive to go all-out in Minnesota. Assuming the Twins beat the Marlins on Thursday, that would give the Tigers just a one-game lead heading into the final series, and the Twins’ matchup might not be as tough as once feared.
So if the Tigers win Thursday afternoon, they should root for an Orioles loss to keep the dream of hosting a playoff series alive. If the Tigers lose, they should root for the Orioles to win and keep their own AL East hopes alive, so they have something to play for in Minneapolis.
The Yankees get to play the Pirates for the final three games of the season, so the Twins will likely be locked into the top wild card spot by the end of Friday’s slate. But that one meaningful game against the Twins could be the difference.
New York Yankees
We still have to acknowledge the remaining possibility of the Tigers playing the Yankees in the first round.
If the Orioles finish 4-0, the Yankees finish 0-4, and the Tigers finish ahead of the Royals, Detroit would get the second wild card spot and play at Yankee Stadium.
It’s a very unlikely scenario, but we’ll keep it on the list until it’s mathematically impossible.
Tiebreakers
You already know that the Tigers would win the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Orioles and Mariners but lose it to the Royals or Twins.
But what about tiebreakers involving multiple teams?
Here’s every possible combination and the result:
- Tigers, Royals, and Twins: Twins win the tiebreaker, Royals are second.
- Tigers, Royals, and Mariners: Tigers win the tiebreaker.
- Tigers, Twins, and Mariners: Twins win the tiebreaker, Tigers are second.
- Tigers, Royals, Twins, and Mariners: Twins win the tiebreaker, Tigers are second.
- Tigers, Royals, and Orioles: Tigers win the tiebreaker.
What’s already decided
Here’s what’s already locked up around baseball:
- The Guardians and Yankees own the two AL byes, unless the Orioles come back to win the AL East, in which case the Guardians would be the No. 1 seed and the Orioles would be the No. 2 seed.
- The Astros are the No. 3 seed in the AL and will host the final wild card team in the first round.
- The Orioles have clinched a playoff spot.
- The Phillies and Dodgers own the two NL byes, unless the Padres come back and win the NL West, in which case the Phillies and Padres would earn the byes.
- The Brewers are the No. 3 seed in the NL and will host the final wild card team in the first round.
- The Padres have clinched a playoff spot.
The two leagues look eerily similar heading into the final four days of the regular season. The third divisional winner is locked while the two teams in bye positions battle for the top spot. And in both leagues, one of those top two divisional winners has yet to clinch.
Cleveland tied the Yankees in the win column Wednesday, but New York still has the inside track to the No. 1 seed. Not only are the Yankees a half-game ahead of the Guardians (with one fewer loss), they also own the tiebreaker and have three games against the Pirates this weekend, while the Guardians play the Astros.
The Dodgers, like the Yankees, have a half-game lead over the Phillies in the race for the top seed, and they’re both playing their second-place rivals tonight with a chance to clinch division titles.
San Diego is pretty much toast in the NL West race, if we’re being honest. The Padres have to beat the Dodgers on Thursday and then hope for the Rockies to take at least two of three from the Dodgers this weekend, which is extremely unlikely.
The race for the final two NL wild card spots got a twist when the Mets-Braves games on Wednesday and Thursday were postponed due to weather. The two teams will now play a doubleheader in Atlanta on Monday, which was supposed to be the off day between the regular season and the start of the playoffs.
As it stands, the Diamondbacks and Mets are “tied” for the second and third wild card spots, with the Braves one game behind. But the Diamondbacks have played two extra games, so they’re actually tied with the Braves in the loss column and percentage points behind the Mets.
Since the Braves own the tiebreaker, the Diamondbacks have to feel a little nervous, especially since their final series is against San Diego. At least they know either the Mets or the Braves have to lose those head-to-head games on Monday.
Bottom line
Wednesday was the toughest game left on the Tigers’ schedule because of the pitching matchup, but they came through once again despite a rocky outing from Keider Montero.
Now all the attention turns to Thursday afternoon. If the Tigers can finish off the sweep of the Rays, they’ll go into the White Sox series with at least one game of cushion over the Twins.
A loss Thursday will add a little more anxiety to this weekend, even against the worst team in MLB history. Needing a sweep is never easy.
Here’s how I would rank the possible remaining outcomes, in order of likelihood.
- Tigers get the second wild card spot and play in Baltimore.
- Tigers get the third wild card spot and play in Houston.
- Tigers miss the playoffs.
- Tigers get the first wild card spot and host the Orioles.
- Tigers get the second wild card spot and play the Yankees in New York.
Notice the only option in this list that was removed from yesterday’s version is the Tigers earning the second wild card spot and playing in Kansas City. Since the Royals can’t jump the Orioles anymore, it’s impossible for Kansas City to get the top wild card spot.
The only reason the Tigers are still alive in that conversation is because they won the season series over the Orioles.
