DETROIT – The final series of the regular season is about to begin, and the Detroit Tigers are on the brink of clinching a playoff spot.
Detroit just polished off an electric sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays, capped by a thrilling comeback on Thursday afternoon.
The Tigers enter the final three games against the Chicago White Sox with their playoff destiny in their own hands, a full 11 games above .500.
Here’s a full breakdown of the playoff picture heading into the weekend.
Minnesota Twins
It would not be an exaggeration to say basically everything has gone the Tigers’ way this month, even the things they can’t control.
The Twins lost two of three games at home to the lowly Marlins this week, including Thursday night’s devastating defeat in 13 innings.
Minnesota’s loss dropped the Tigers’ magic number to one, which means they can clinch as early as Friday night at Comerica Park if they can take down Garrett Crochet and the White Sox.
The only hope for Minnesota now is that either the Tigers or Royals finish the season 0-3. Since the Twins own the head-to-head tiebreaker over both teams, they would get into the playoffs if they finished 3-0 in that scenario.
Kansas City Royals
Just when it looked like the Tigers were going to blow past Kansas City into the second wild card spot, the Royals found a way to grind out three tough wins in Washington to keep pace.
Both the Tigers and Royals enter the final series of the season with an 85-74 record. Even though Kansas City owns the tiebreaker, you have to like Detroit’s chances to finish on top.
While the Tigers host the 120-loss White Sox this weekend, the Royals have to travel to Atlanta for three games against the Braves.
Atlanta is currently one game behind both the New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks for the final two wild card spots in the National League. So there’s even more at stake for them.
If the Royals can win two of three in Atlanta, they have a good shot to keep that No. 2 wild card spot. If not, the Tigers just have to win their final home series to lock it up.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles couldn’t figure out Gerrit Cole on Thursday night, so the dream of the wild card round coming to Comerica Park lives on for another night.
Baltimore leads Detroit by three games, and there are three games left on the schedule. So the Tigers have to sweep the White Sox and the Twins have to sweep the Orioles to give Detroit the top wild card spot.
In the event that Kansas City also sweeps Atlanta, the Tigers would still win the tiebreaker because of a superior combined record against Kansas City and Baltimore.
- The Tigers went 6-7 against Kansas City and 4-2 against Baltimore (10-9 overall).
- The Royals went 7-6 against Detroit and 2-4 against Baltimore (9-10 overall).
- The Orioles went 2-4 against Detroit and 4-2 against Kansas City (6-6 overall).
So as long as you think the Tigers can win one game against the White Sox this weekend, you should be rooting for the Twins to sweep the Orioles.
Seattle Mariners
Yesterday, we officially said goodbye to the Red Sox and Rays. Today, the Mariners sail off into the sunset.
With the Tigers and Royals winning Thursday afternoon, the Mariners were officially eliminated from playoff contention because they don’t own any tiebreakers.
New York Yankees
Remember that slim chance that the Tigers could play in New York for the wild card round? That’s gone now.
The Yankees clinched the AL East Division with their win over the Orioles on Thursday, so they’ll have a bye.
Tiebreakers
Even though the Mariners are out of playoff contention, they could still prove relevant in a tiebreaker situation because they’re three games behind the Tigers and Royals and tied with the Twins.
I guess, technically, Tigers fans should root for the Mariners to sweep the Oakland A’s. On the off chance that the Tigers and Royals both get swept this weekend and the Twins lose at least once, the Tigers would lose a tiebreaker to the Royals but win a hypothetical three-team tiebreaker with the Royals and Mariners.
Here’s how all the possible ties would play out:
- Tigers and Orioles: Tigers win the tiebreaker.
- Tigers and Royals: Royals win the tiebreaker.
- Tigers and Twins: Twins win the tiebreaker.
- Tigers and Mariners: Tigers win the tiebreaker.
- Tigers, Royals, and Twins: Twins win the tiebreaker, Royals are second.
- Tigers, Royals, and Mariners: Tigers win the tiebreaker.
- Tigers, Twins, and Mariners: Twins win the tiebreaker, Tigers are second.
- Tigers, Royals, Twins, and Mariners: Twins win the tiebreaker, Tigers are second.
- Tigers, Royals, and Orioles: Tigers win the tiebreaker.
What’s already decided
The final two division titles were clinched on Thursday night, as the Yankees and Dodgers took down their respective second-place teams to put them out of reach.
Here’s what we know for sure about the playoffs:
- The Yankees and Guardians will have the two first-round byes in the AL.
- The Astros are the No. 3 seed in the AL and will host the third wild card team in the first round.
- The Orioles have clinched a wild card spot.
- The Dodgers and Phillies will have the two first-round byes in the NL.
- The Brewers are the No. 3 seed in the NL and will host the third wild card team in the first round.
- The Padres have clinched a wild card spot.
The Yankees have a one-game lead over Cleveland for the top seed in the AL, and they also own the head-to-head tiebreaker. New York hosts the Pirates and Cleveland hosts the Astros this weekend.
The Dodgers have a one-game lead over the Phillies for the top seed in the NL, but the Phillies own the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Dodgers travel to Colorado this weekend, and the Phillies head to Washington.
Two of the Royals, Tigers, and Twins will make the playoffs, with one being left out.
Two of the Mets, Diamondbacks, and Braves will make the playoffs, with one being left out.
Since the Mets-Braves games were rained out the last two days, those teams will return to Atlanta on Monday for a doubleheader. Monday was supposed to be a day off between the end of the regular season and the wild card round.
The Mets are in Milwaukee for three games against the Brewers this weekend, while the Diamondbacks host the Padres and the Braves host the Royals.
Bottom line
It’s all over but the champaign baths. The Tigers just need one win over the worst team in the league to make this unimaginable run to the postseason a reality.
The Tigers are hoping to clinch Friday or Saturday so they don’t have to use Tarik Skubal on the final day of the regular season. That would allow them to save him for the first game of the wild card round.
Here’s how I would rank the possible remaining outcomes, in order of likelihood.
- Tigers get the second wild card spot and play in Baltimore.
- Tigers get the third wild card spot and play in Houston.
- Tigers get the first wild card spot and host the Orioles.
- Tigers miss the playoffs.
I’ve moved the Tigers missing the playoffs below the chance that they get a home series. It seems more likely that the Twins and Tigers sweep their series this weekend than the White Sox upsetting the Tigers three times in a row.
Could the White Sox win a game or two? Sure. They have Crochet on the mound Friday, and there’s a chance Sunday won’t mean anything to the Tigers.
But the way the Tigers have been playing, there’s no reason to believe they won’t find a way to close the deal.
