DETROIT – The Detroit Tigers are back in the playoffs for the first time in a decade, and it’s time to see if they can keep this magical run going.
Detroit won 31 of 42 games to clinch a wild card spot after their playoff odds dropped to 0.2% in mid-August.
Here’s a look at how the playoff bracket sets up for the Tigers.
Wild card round: Houston Astros
First up is a best-of-three series against the Houston Astros, entirely on the road. Game 1 is at 2:32 p.m. Tuesday, and Game 2 is at 2:32 p.m. Wednesday. If the teams split those two, Game 3 will be at 2:32 p.m. Thursday.
The Tigers went 2-4 against the Astros this season, but those series were way back in May and June. Houston took two of three at Comerica Park from May 10-12, and then took two of three at home from June 14-16.
Tuesday’s Game 1 will feature two elite left-handed starting pitchers in Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez.
Skubal got two starts against Houston this season. At home, he fired 6.1 innings, allowing just two runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out seven. He took the loss in Houston, allowing four earned runs in 6.1 innings with just two strikeouts, six hits and a walk.
Valdez only got one start against the Tigers. He made it through seven innings with four strikeouts while allowing six hits, two walks, and two runs. He left in line for a loss, but the Astros scored three runs off of Andrew Chafin in the top of the eighth, so he ended up with a win.
Skubal and Valdez go about their dominance in very different ways. While Skubal is good at, well, everything, Valdez makes his living by keeping the ball on the ground.
Valdez gives up a ton of hard contact, but there’s almost never any damage because of his 98th percentile ground ball rate. He’s slightly above average across the board (strikeout rate, walk rate, expected stats), but those outlier ground ball tendencies make him one of the toughest pitchers in baseball.
As Tigers fans know, Skubal does it all. Elite strikeouts. Low walk rate. Ground balls. Weak contact. You name it.
One thing to watch out for: the Crawford boxes in left field. It’s only 315 feet from home plate to the wall in left -- although that wall is 19 feet high. Skubal will need to be careful with right-handed hitters like Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman.
The Tigers are also likely to see Yusei Kikuchi and Hunter Brown if the series goes three games.
Kikuchi has been a menace since joining the Astros, posting a 2.70 ERA, a 0.933 WHIP, and 76 strikeouts in 60 innings. He’s always had swing-and-miss stuff, but it’s no surprise the Astros have been able to get the best out of him (see: Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, etc.).
Brown, a Wayne State product, got off to an abysmal start this season, carrying a 7.71 ERA through his first nine outings.
But since May 22, he owns a 2.31 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and 138 strikeouts across 132.2 innings. That stretch includes 18 quality starts in 22 appearances.
In his only start against the Tigers, Brown fired seven shutout innings, allowing five hits and striking out nine.
The Tigers might not see Verlander in this shortened series. Even if the Astros have to go beyond those three starters in a bulk situation, priority would likely fall to Ronel Blanco, who put up a 2.80 ERA and 1.09 WHIP this season, with about a strikeout per inning.
Houston also features a lethal back-end of the bullpen, anchored by Josh Hader, who struck out 105 batters in 71 innings this season. Bryan Abreu led the team with 78 appearances, and Ryan Pressly has a ton of experience pitching in high-leverage playoff situations.
It’s unclear if the Astros will get Tayler Scott back from the injured list for the wild card series. Scott posted a 2.23 ERA and 1.17 WHIP across 68.2 innings this season.
The biggest injury question remaining for this series is Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez, who hit .308 with 35 homers and a .959 OPS this season. Alvarez hurt his knee in late September, but it’s possible he could return by Tuesday.
Alvarez is one of the best all-around hitters in baseball, and he’s earned a reputation for coming through in big spots in the postseason. His availability is a critical development to watch over the next 24 hours.
Either way, the odds certainly seem to be stacked against the Tigers. But that’s nothing new. That was the case over the past two months, and they found a way to put up the best record in baseball.
Divisional round: Cleveland Guardians
If the Tigers survive the wild card round, they’ll face a very familiar foe in the divisional round.
Cleveland earned the No. 2 seed in the American League and a bye through the first round. They’ll host the winner of the Tigers-Astros in a best-of-five series.
The Guardians won seven of 13 head-to-head matchups with the Tigers this season, but here’s the thing: They really haven’t seen this version of Detroit.
The Tigers lost a hard-fought series in Cleveland in May and then took three of four at home right before the All-Star break. The two teams split four games in Cleveland in mid-July, and then the Tigers got swept in a two-game set on July 29-30.
About 10 days later is when the Tigers kicked off their 31-11 stretch.
Cleveland is formidable for a few reasons: The bullpen, the defense, and the top of the order.
Emmanuel Clase is likely to finish second to Skubal in the AL Cy Young race after racking up 47 saves alongside a 0.61 ERA and 0.66 WHIP. It’s one of the best seasons by a relief pitcher in MLB history.
But he’s not alone. Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, and Cade Smith all appeared in more than 70 games for the Guardians, and all three finished with sub-2.00 ERAs and sub-1.00 WHIPs.
In a five-game series, that foursome will have a devastating impact if Cleveland builds an early lead.
Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan are the primary offensive threats. Ramirez put up MVP-caliber numbers once again, with 39 homers, 41 steals, and an .872 OPS.
Kwan walked more than he struck out (53 walks and 51 strikeouts) and even added a bit of pop to his profile -- 14 homers at the top of the lineup.
The rest of the lineup doesn’t jump off the page, but Josh Naylor seems to always come through in key moments, and Andres Gimenez stole 30 bags to go with 32 extra-base hits. It’s a pesky group, and they find ways to win.
American League Championship Series
The other side of the AL playoff bracket has the Royals heading to Baltimore to take on the Orioles in the wild card round. The winner will play the Yankees in the divisional round.
Nobody is thinking this far ahead, but in case you were wondering, the Tigers lost the head-to-head series against the Yankees 4-2 and the Royals 7-6. They won four of six meetings with the Orioles.
The last time the Tigers went to the World Series in 2012, they went through the Yankees in the ALCS, sweeping them in four games.
After getting swept in New York before the All-Star break, the Tigers won two of three in August, including a comeback victory in 10 innings at the Little League Classic -- a win that many believe helped turn this season around.
Speaking of seminal moments, during a nine-game stretch from Sept. 13-22, the Tigers won seven of nine games against the Orioles and Royals to cement themselves as legitimate wild card contenders.
There isn’t a team the Tigers can’t compete with in the AL. If they make it that far, their bullpen versatility could really become a weapon.
National League
The regular season was supposed to end Sunday, but Mother Nature had other plans.
Two Mets-Braves games were postponed last week due to weather, so they’ll play a doubleheader on Monday to determine the final two National League wild card teams.
We know the Dodgers are the top seed, the Phillies are second, the Brewers are third, and the Padres are fourth. But there are three teams vying for the fifth and sixth spots.
Right now, the Arizona Diamondbacks are in fifth with 89 wins, but in reality, they’re in a uniquely terrible position.
Both the Mets and Braves have 88 wins and own the tiebreaker over Arizona. So whoever wins Game 1 of Monday’s doubleheader clinches a playoff spot. Then, the loser will need to win Game 2 of the doubleheader to get in, but by then, the other team will be celebrating their own playoff berth and won’t care very much (see the Tigers’ last two games against the White Sox).
It seems very likely that the Mets and Braves will split Monday’s games, therefore leaving all three teams with 89 wins. The Diamondbacks would then be left out.
In that scenario, the Braves would get the second wild card spot and head to San Diego. The Mets would get the final wild card spot and head to Milwaukee.
If someone sweeps Monday’s doubleheader, that team will go to San Diego, and the Diamondbacks will head to Milwaukee.
Bottom line
What else is there to say? Playoff baseball is back in Detroit, and it feels oh so good.
Even if the Tigers don’t get through Houston, this season will be remembered for the epic run that got them here. Even the most optimistic fans didn’t expect this.
But hey, might as well get a little greedy, right?
