DETROIT – It’s the hottest topic in Detroit this week: What should the Lions do to replace Aidan Hutchinson?
Should they make a small trade? A blockbuster? Or hope for guys to step up internally?
I‘ve spent a lot of time thinking about it since the 47-9 blowout win over the Cowboys. And I think there are fair arguments on both sides.
But I’ve decided the Lions should make a trade.
📄 READ: Everything to know about the Aidan Hutchinson injury
The case for standing pat
Last season, when the Lions dealt with injuries to key players and the pass rush struggled even with Hutchinson, I was in the “don’t make a big trade camp.”
My reasoning then: Brad Holmes draft picks are simply too valuable to trade for short-term gains. He’s turned early-round picks into Hutchinson, Penei Sewell, Jameson Williams, Alim McNeill, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Brian Branch, Terrion Arnold -- the list goes on.
Those players now make up the nucleus of a Super Bowl contender.
Since then, the importance of those young, inexpensive stars has only increased, as the Lions handed out massive contracts to the likes of Sewell, McNeill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Taylor Decker, and Jared Goff.
The Lions had to keep those guys around, but now comes the hard part: They need to compliment that group with talented, less expensive players. Everyone can’t get a mega contract -- so the rest of the roster needs to be built primarily through the draft.
So the prospect of trading those draft picks for someone like Chase Young or Brian Burns didn’t appeal to me at all.
I also didn’t think the Lions were likely to win the Super Bowl last season, as good as they were. The 49ers and Eagles looked better for most of the season, and 2023 felt like more of a stepping stone year before the true championship window.
Obviously, that was not the case, as the Lions came one play away from going to the Super Bowl.
But now all of those factors have changed.
The case for a trade
There are several reasons I‘ve decided the Lions need to make a big trade. But let’s start with the obvious.
No proven edge rusher
Last year, even though the pass rush wasn’t always great, the Lions at least had Hutchinson, and he finished with 14.5 sacks between the regular season and playoffs.
Now, with Hutchinson out, they don’t have a single proven edge rusher on the roster. Not one.
I think it‘s nearly impossible to win a Super Bowl -- or even go deep in the playoffs -- without a strong pass rush. Hutchinson’s emergence last year, followed by his dominance in the postseason, is a big reason the Lions went so far.
It feels like wishful thinking that Josh Paschal could be the best edge rusher for a Super Bowl contending team. Or Levi Onwuzurike.
James Houston was great as a rookie, but there‘s probably a reason he can’t seem to get off the practice squad.
Isaiah Thomas was the first addition after Hutchinson‘s injury, but it‘s an insult to suggest Hutchinson can be replaced by a former seventh-round draft pick who couldn’t make the Browns or Bengals rosters.
Let‘s face it: The Lions don‘t have anybody to rush the passer. I wouldn’t expect any of those guys to finish with more than five or six sacks.
True Super Bowl contender
This Lions team also feels like a more legitimate Super Bowl contender than last year.
Goff and the offense have looked better than ever the past two games, with Tim Patrick joining an already dominant returning core. David Montgomery is better. Gibbs is better. Williams is much better.
But the greatest improvement has come on defense, thanks to the revamped secondary. Arnold is finding his footing as a rookie, and the veteran duo of Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson has been an instant success.
At safety, Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch form one of the best duos in the NFL.
Last season, the Lions were built to break the long division and playoff droughts. This year, the goal has been to win a Super Bowl since the very first day of camp.
For that reason, I think there should be an increased sense of urgency to replace Hutchinson with a player of his caliber -- or at least someone close. Super Bowl rosters don‘t come around very often, and it‘s not like the Lions aren’t going to have injuries next year, and the year after that, and the year after that.
You can’t just sit around and wait for the one year where no important players get hurt. That year will probably never come.
The Lions are good enough to win the Super Bowl right now. Nothing about next year is guaranteed. Who knows: 2024 could be the best chance the Lions have with this particular core of players, and if that’s the case, do you want to jeopardize it to protect draft picks?
Top trade candidates have years of control
The best part about some of the names being floated out there on the trade market is that they’re not one-year rentals.
The Lions extended Goff, Sewell, St. Brown, McNeill, and Decker through the next several years, so they should have a few shots at the Super Bowl in the next two or three seasons.
An edge rusher who’s under team control for a similar timeline would be perfect for the Lions, because not only could that player replace Hutchinson this season -- he would also pair with Hutchinson to form a formidable duo going forward.
Maxx Crosby is the most popular name for Lions fans, not only because he’s a dominant player, but also because he went to college locally at Eastern Michigan.
It would take a lot to land Crosby, but the Raiders have already waved the white flag by trading away Davante Adams, so they’ll at least pick up the phone. Crosby is signed for two more seasons after 2024.
Myles Garrett hasn‘t been the subject of quite as many trade talks, but the Browns are off to a 1-5 start and already traded away top receiver Amari Cooper, so it’s worth a shot.
Garrett is also under contract through the 2026 season.
If the Lions drafted first-rounders in 2025 and 2026 who combined to be as productive as Crosby or Garrett, would you be happy with those picks? If so, you should be OK with trading two first-rounders for one of those players.
Final thoughts
Dan Campbell said during an interview this week that the Lions are more likely to add a complimentary piece than make a big splash, but with the team‘s current personnel, I‘m not sure that’s enough.
Obviously, he’s not going to come out and say, “Yeah, I think we have to trade for a superstar.” That would cost the Lions leverage in trade talks and also be a bit hard to explain to the players on the current roster.
But Holmes has pushed all the right buttons since taking over as Lions general manager, from the Matthew Stafford trade to the draft to savvy free agent signings.
So I think Lions fans can rest easy knowing he’s going to explore all options. They’re in good hands.
