DETROIT – You might think it’s too early, but who cares? We’ve waited decades for the Detroit Lions to be this good, so let’s talk about the race for the No. 1 seed.
The Lions just won their eighth game in a row Sunday, completely disrespecting the Jaguars en route to a 52-6 victory.
With seven weeks left in the season, the Lions sit atop the NFC at 9-1, and there are really only four other teams worth monitoring in the race for the conference’s top seed:
- Philadelphia Eagles (8-2).
- Minnesota Vikings (8-2).
- Green Bay Packers (7-3).
- Washington Commanders (7-4).
Why these 4 teams?
With the way the Lions are playing, it seems highly unlikely that they’ll lose more than three games down the stretch. Heck, it seems unlikely that they’ll lose more than two.
But we have to consider the Vikings and Packers because the Lions still have one head-to-head matchup left against each.
The Eagles look like the most dangerous threat to the Lions right now, and the Commanders, while they’re on life support in this conversation, have one of the easiest closing schedules in the league.
I didn’t include the four-loss Cardinals because the Lions already have a head-to-head win against them, and looking at the schedule, I doubt Arizona’s ability to win their last seven games.
NFL tiebreakers
If you want to check out the full NFL tie-breaking procedures, click here. But I’m going to paraphrase them briefly before we begin.
Let’s say the Lions finish in a tie with the Packers, the Vikings, or both atop the NFC North. Divisional record would be the first tiebreaker, followed by record in common games, followed by conference record.
If, somehow, all of those are the same, the tiebreaker would move to strength of victory.
A tie with the Eagles or Commanders would follow a slightly different route, especially since there’s no head-to-head meeting with either. Conference record would be the first tiebreaker, followed by record in common games, followed by strength of victory.
Philadelphia Eagles
The most likely tiebreaker to come into play would be the Lions and the Eagles. The Lions are only one game ahead, and they don’t meet head-to-head.
Conference record:
The Lions currently have a leg up on the Eagles because both Eagles losses came to teams in the NFC. So if the Lions lose to the Colts or Bills and finish tied with the Eagles, they would win the tiebreaker based on best conference record.
But the Eagles still have to visit the Ravens and host the Steelers -- two of the best teams in the AFC. While Eagles losses in those games would help the Lions overall, they wouldn’t help them in terms of this tiebreaker.
The Eagles have two tough conference games remaining at the Rams and at the Commanders. The Lions host Green Bay and Minnesota and visit San Francisco.
There’s still a lot to play out for this tiebreaker, but currently, that Eagles loss to the Falcons in Week 2 is the difference.
Common opponents:
The Eagles played the Packers, Buccaneers, Jaguars, and Cowboys, and they still play the Rams and Cowboys. That means by the end of the season, the Lions and Eagles will have six “common opponent” games.
Both the Lions and Eagles lost to the Buccaneers. The Lions are currently 4-1 against common opponents (beat the Rams, Cowboys, Packers, and Jaguars), and the Eagles are 3-1 (beat the Packers, Jaguars, and Cowboys).
This weekend’s Sunday Night Football game against the Rams is critical for the Eagles if they want to contend for the No. 1 seed -- not only because they don’t want to fall further behind the Lions, but also for the conference and common opponent tiebreakers.
The Eagles play the Cowboys at home in Week 17, while the Lions play the Packers at home in Week 14.
If the Eagles beat the Rams on Sunday night, it seems very likely that both teams will finish 5-1 against their common opponents.
Takeaway:
That Rams game is huge for a potential Lions-Eagles tiebreaker, as are the Lions-49ers and Eagles-Commanders road games against conference foes.
There’s still way too much left unsettled to get much of a feel for this potential tiebreaker, but the Eagles are definitely the biggest threat to the Lions in the NFC right now.
Washington Commanders
Let’s do the Commanders next, since there’s also no head-to-head matchup to consider.
The Commanders already have four losses, so it feels like the only way these two teams will finish tied is if the Lions go 4-3 and the Commanders go 6-0 down the stretch.
It actually looks more realistic for the Commanders to go 6-0 than the Lions to lose three times.
Washington gets two games against the Cowboys and one game each against the Titans and Saints before the end of the season. Those three teams are all terrible.
Week 16 and 17 games against the Eagles and Falcons are much tougher, but both are at home, so the Commanders certainly have a chance to win out.
Conference record:
Fortunately for the Commanders, only two of their four losses have come to NFC teams, so if the Lions lose three more games, the Commanders are guaranteed to either win or tie the conference record.
That’s because the Lions only have two more games against AFC opponents: the Colts and Bills. So if they lose three times, at least one of those would have to come against a conference opponent.
And if we’re assuming that the Commanders have finished 6-0 in this scenario, their final conference record would be 10-2.
So if the Lions and Commanders both finish 13-4, the best-case scenario for the Lions is that they lose to the Colts and Bills, and this tiebreaker moves on to common opponents.
Common opponents:
The Commanders and Lions also have five common opponents for six total games: The Buccaneers, Cardinals, Bears (twice for Lions), Cowboys (twice for Commanders), and Titans.
Washington lost to the Buccaneers and beat the Cardinals and Bears. Detroit lost to the Buccaneers and beat the Cardinals, Cowboys, and Titans.
So, once again, if we’re assuming the Commanders win out, they would be 5-1 against these common opponents, and that’s the best the Lions can do if they sweep the Bears.
Takeaway:
It’s very unlikely that the Lions and Commanders finish the season with the same record, but if they do, the tiebreakers heavily favor Washington.
Detroit would have to lose very specific games -- the Colts and Bills games, as well as either the Packers, 49ers, or Vikings game -- to force a strength of victory tiebreaker.
Minnesota Vikings
Since the first tiebreaker is head-to-head result, this conversation is only relevant if the Vikings beat the Lions at Ford Field to finish the regular season. That would mean the two teams split their head-to-head meetings.
Division record:
Both the Vikings and Lions still have four divisional games left to play: two against the Bears, one against the Packers, and one against each other.
The Vikings and Lions have both already won at Lambeau Field, so this tiebreaker is quite literally all knotted up if we’re assuming a Vikings win over the Lions in Week 18.
Common opponents:
The major difference in the tie-breaking procedure for division rivals is that records against common opponents comes before conference record -- likely because there are inherently so many more common opponents to use as data points.
We can take out the divisional games because this tiebreaker only comes into play if those division records are identical. So the tiebreaker would come down to these games:
- 49ers (Vikings won).
- Texans (both won).
- Rams (Lions won, Vikings lost).
- Colts (Vikings won).
- Jaguars (both won).
- Titans (both won).
- Cardinals (Lions won).
- Seahawks (Lions won).
As you can see, the Lions already have the inside track on the Vikings thanks to the Rams game. The Vikings still have to play the Cardinals and Seahawks, while the Lions have yet to play the 49ers and Colts.
Even though that 49ers game will be a challenge, the Lions are looking pretty good in this tiebreaker. If the Vikings beat both the Cardinals and the Seahawks, they would still need the Lions to lose to both the 49ers and Colts to win the tiebreaker.
Conference record:
If the tiebreaker goes to conference record, the Lions and Vikings would technically be tied, as of now.
The Vikings have lost to the Lions and Rams, and the Lions would have lost to the Buccaneers and Vikings, in this scenario.
Both teams have to play the Bears twice and the Packers once. Other than the head-to-head meeting, that leaves just the 49ers game for the Lions, while the Vikings still have the Cardinals, Falcons, and Seahawks on the schedule.
Takeaway:
While it’s still very tight, the Lions clearly have an advantage in the non-divisional tiebreakers against the Vikings.
If they can take care of business in Indianapolis this weekend, the common opponents tiebreaker would lean even more heavily in their favor.
Green Bay Packers
Like with the Vikings, we have to assume the Packers beat the Lions in Ford Field to make this a meaningful conversation. That game is Dec. 5 on Thursday Night Football.
Division record:
The problem for the Packers is they’ve already lost two divisional home games, including one against the Vikings. That means they would need help from someone else even if they beat the Lions head-to-head.
The first tiebreaker after head-to-head is division record, and right now, the Lions are a perfect 2-0. The Packers are just 1-2 after their tight win over the Bears.
Common opponents:
Again, we’ll take out the divisional games because they have to be the same to get to this point. That leaves the following common opponents:
- Colts (Packers won).
- Titans (both won).
- Rams (both won).
- Cardinals (both won).
- Texans (both won).
- Jaguars (both won).
- 49ers (neither has played).
- Seahawks (Lions won).
This basically boils down to two games for both teams: The 49ers and Colts for the Lions and the 49ers and Seahawks for the Packers.
Both teams are currently undefeated against common opponents outside the NFC North, so this tiebreaker is dead even.
Conference record:
Even though it looks like the Lions have a big lead in this tiebreaker, they actually wouldn’t if they finish tied with the Packers.
Since we have to assume identical divisional records to get to this point, the Packers' loss to the Vikings would get offset by a Lions loss in the division, too.
And the loss to the Lions would be offset by a head-to-head win at Ford Field for the Packers.
So the two teams would be even. The Packers have to play the 49ers, Seahawks, and Saints, while the Lions only have the 49ers remaining. Advantage Lions.
Takeaway:
The Packers are very unlikely to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but hey, they caught fire in the second half last season, so it could happen again.
Right now, with that undefeated record in the division, the Lions have a nice advantage over the Packers.
