DETROIT – Who will get the No. 1 seed and first-round bye in the playoffs if the Detroit Lions tie with the Philadelphia Eagles for the best record in the NFC?
It feels like the Lions and Eagles are on a collision course atop the NFC, and that was solidified once again this weekend.
The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers are still very much in the mix, but since they both have head-to-head meetings left with the Lions, we don’t need to worry about hypotheticals just yet.
But the Lions and Eagles won’t meet on the field. Detroit is currently atop the league at 10-1, while Philadelphia is just a game behind at 9-2.
So what happens if they both finish with the same record? Let’s dive back into the tiebreaker scenarios.
NFL tiebreakers
We broke down the NFL tie-breaking procedures last week, so click here to read that. But here’s a brief summary (click here for the NFL’s official tiebreaker page):
If the Lions and Eagles finish with the same record, the tiebreakers go as follows (since there’s no head-to-head):
- Record vs. NFC teams.
- Record vs. common opponents.
- Overall strength of victory.
- Overall strength of schedule.
Strength of victory and strength of schedule fluctuate greatly week-to-week, so with six games left on the schedule, we’ll focus mostly on the top two items.
Conference record
- Lions current record vs. NFC teams: 6-1
- Eagles current record vs. NFC teams: 6-2
Keep in mind throughout this breakdown that we have to assume the Lions and Eagles finish with the same record. That means the Lions will have to lose at least one more game for this tiebreaker to come into play.
So as it currently stands, the Lions are guaranteed to get the No. 1 seed in the NFC if they finish the season 15-2, as long as that second loss is to the Buffalo Bills.
If the Lions lose to the Bills at home on Dec. 15 and win the other five games, then they will have an 11-1 record within the conference. The Eagles already have two conference losses, so the Lions would win the tiebreaker even if Philadelphia wins its final six games.
But things get more complicated if the Lions lose one of the other five games. Or if the Lions lose to the Bills and one of the NFC teams, and the Eagles lose to either the Ravens (Dec. 1 in Baltimore) or Steelers (Dec. 15 in Philadelphia).
The Lions have five games left against NFC teams: two against the Bears and one each against the Packers, 49ers, and Vikings.
The Eagles have four games left against NFC teams: one each against the Panthers, Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants.
The Lions win the tiebreaker if:
- They go 5-1 with a loss to the Bills.
- They go 4-2 including a loss to the Bills, while the Eagles go 5-1 with a loss to an NFC team.
- They go 3-3 including a loss to the Bills, while the Eagles go 4-2 with two losses to NFC teams.
The Eagles win the tiebreaker if:
- The Lions go 4-2 with two losses to NFC teams and the Eagles go 5-1 with a loss to the Steelers or Ravens.
- The Lions go 3-3 including a loss to the Bills, while the Eagles go 4-2 with losses to both the Steelers and Ravens.
- The Lions go 3-3 with three losses to NFC teams and the Eagles go 4-2 with a loss to the Steelers or Ravens (or both).
The tiebreaker is even if:
- The Lions go 5-1 with a loss to an NFC team, while the Eagles go 6-0.
- The Lions go 4-2 including a loss to the Bills, while the Eagles go 5-1 with a loss to the Steelers or Ravens.
- The Lions go 4-2 with two losses to NFC teams, while the Eagles go 5-1 with a loss to an NFC team.
- The Lions go 3-3 including a loss to the Bills, while the Eagles go 4-2 with a loss to either the Steelers or Ravens (but not both).
If the Lions lose more than three games, then we might not be talking about the No. 1 seed.
Common opponents
In those situations where the Lions and Eagles have identical conference records, the tiebreaker moves to their winning percentage against common opponents.
Here are the teams that have played (or will play) both the Lions and Eagles this season:
- Green Bay Packers (Lions twice, Eagles once).
- Dallas Cowboys (Eagles twice, Lions once).
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
- Jacksonville Jaguars.
- Los Angeles Rams.
So there are five common opponents and six common opponent games for each team.
This tiebreaker is pretty simple because both the Lions and Eagles lost to the Buccaneers. They’re both 4-1 in these games against common opponents.
Detroit will host the Packers on Dec. 5, while Philadelphia will host the Cowboys on Dec. 29. Those matchups are incredibly important in this tiebreaker because they count as both conference games and common opponent games.
Let’s say the Lions and Eagles finish with the same overall record and the same conference record. Here are the scenarios:
- If the Lions beat the Packers and the Eagles beat the Cowboys, this tiebreaker would be even.
- If the Lions beat the Packers and the Eagles lose to the Cowboys, the Lions win the tiebreaker.
- If the Lions lose to the Packers and the Eagles beat the Cowboys, the Eagles win the tiebreaker.
Strength of victory
Strength of victory is going to change a lot between now and the first week of January, so we won’t break it down too much with six weeks left in the season.
But as of right now, the Lions have a much higher strength of victory than the Eagles: .491-.390. Strength of victory is simply the combined winning percentage of all the opponents a team has defeated.
So right now, the combined record of the teams the Lions have beaten is 55-57, compared to 39-61 for the Eagles.
So the Eagles would need to make up 16 games' worth of ground in the next six weeks.
They will also get boosts if they beat the Ravens (7-4) and Steelers (8-3), but with the Panthers (3-8), Cowboys (4-7), and Giants (2-9) still on the schedule, it’s going to be difficult to make up 16 games of ground on the Lions.
That’s especially true since Detroit hosts the Packers (8-3), Bills (9-2), and Vikings (9-2).
Strength of schedule
It’s extremely unlikely that the Lions and Eagles will finish with the same conference record, common games record, and strength of victory, but let’s just say it does happen.
Right now, the Lions have a much more difficult strength of schedule than the Eagles: .488-.410.
The total record of the remaining six opponents on the Lions' schedule is 39-27, compared to 31-36 for the Eagles. So it’s nearly impossible for the Eagles to finish ahead of the Lions in this metric.
Final thoughts
Philadelphia’s win over the Rams on Sunday night made this a much more interesting conversation heading into the final six weeks.
As dominant as the Lions have been, the Eagles are keeping up the pressure. If the Lions lose to the Packers, the Eagles would control their own destiny for the No. 1 seed due to the common opponent records.
On the other hand, any NFC loss by the Eagles would be devastating for their chances. Luckily for them, home games against the Panthers, Cowboys, and Giants are nearly all automatic wins. That Dec. 22 trip to Washington could be a key game for the Eagles.
A bye is a major advantage in the NFL, but home field advantage through the NFC Championship Game might be even more important. The Lions are in a good spot for now, but there’s very little breathing room.
