Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
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Six division matchups and Kirk Cousins’ return to Minnesota highlight a lighter Week 14 schedule.
Six teams aren’t playing as the NFL wraps up its final week of byes before going to a full slate over the last four weeks. Two games feature the top two teams in the division.
The Seattle Seahawks (7-5) visit the Arizona Cardinals (6-6) on Sunday in a battle for a tight race in the NFC West.
The Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) host the Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) on “Sunday Night Football” with plenty of breathing room between the two teams in the AFC West.
The Green Bay Packers (9-3) and Detroit Lions (11-1) kick off the week on Thursday night in a game with major NFC North implications. The Minnesota Vikings (10-2) are in between the teams in the standings.
Cousins faces the Vikings for the first time since joining the Atlanta Falcons. Pro Picks eyes that game for the lone upset of the week.
Buffalo (10-2) at Los Angeles Rams (6-6)
Line: Bills minus 4 1/2
The Bills already clinched their fifth straight AFC East title, Josh Allen is the betting favorite for NFL MVP and the No. 1 seed is in their sights. A cross-country trip to face the feisty Rams is a setup for a letdown but this Buffalo team is on a mission. Los Angeles is still in the chase for the NFC West title, just one game back.
BEST BET: BILLS: 27-20
Atlanta (6-6) at Minnesota (10-2)
Line: Vikings minus 5 1/2
Kirk Cousins returns to Minnesota with the Falcons trying to snap a three-game losing streak after tossing four interceptions last week. Atlanta still controls its NFC South title hopes but must turn things around. The Vikings keep winning behind Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson and a defense that’s allowed the fifth-fewest points in the league, 18.3 per game.
UPSET SPECIAL: FALCONS: 23-22
Green Bay (9-3) at Detroit (11-1)
Line: Lions minus 3 1/2
Both teams are coming off wins on Thanksgiving. The Packers lost at home to the Lions a month ago and need this victory to have a chance at winning the NFC North. Detroit survived a close call last week thanks to Chicago’s clock mismanagement. The Lions can’t slip up with streaking Philadelphia right behind them for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They are 5-1 against the spread in their past six games vs. Green Bay. The Packers are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games in Detroit. The road team has won the past four games in this series.
LIONS: 29-24
Jacksonville (2-10) at Tennessee (3-9)
Line: Titans minus 3 1/2
A miserable season for the Jaguars keeps getting worse. Trevor Lawrence returned from an injury only to suffer a concussion on a late hit. The team is heading toward another top draft pick. They picked No. 1 overall in 2021 and 2022. The Titans are only slightly better. QB Will Levis has shown improvement over the past four games after returning from a shoulder injury. The Jaguars are 0-9 straight up in their past nine road games and 1-9 straight up in their past 10 games in Tennessee. The Titans are 1-7 against the spread in their past eight games overall and 0-5 ATS in their past five home games.
TITANS: 20-17
New York Jets (3-9) at Miami (5-7)
Line: Dolphins minus 6 1/2
Hard to fathom the Jets had a better record with Zach Wilson (4-7) and Trevor Siemian (2-1) last year than Aaron Rodgers this season. Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins are clinging to slim playoff hopes. At least they won’t be playing in cold weather this week.
DOLPHINS: 27-20
New Orleans (4-8) at New York Giants (2-10)
Line: Saints minus 5
Another matchup featuring two losing teams — there are five such games this week — that will be difficult to watch except for fantasy and betting implications. The Saints peaked at 2-0. The Giants have lost seven straight and are better off extending that streak to try to land the No. 1 overall pick.
SAINTS: 23-16
Carolina (3-9) at Philadelphia (10-2)
Line: Eagles minus 12 1/2
The Panthers pushed the Chiefs to the final seconds before losing and were a fumble away from beating the Buccaneers in overtime last week. Bryce Young has improved since returning from his benching and rookie coach Dave Canales has the team playing better than its record. The Eagles are a legitimate Super Bowl contender behind MVP candidate Saquon Barkley, a loaded offense and a stingy defense. They can’t afford a letdown with hopes of catching the Lions for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
EAGLES: 24-13
Cleveland (3-8) at Pittsburgh (9-3)
Line: Steelers minus 6 1/2
The Steelers are 5-1 with Russell Wilson and have a two-game advantage in the loss column over the Ravens for the AFC North lead. They lost to Jameis Winston and the Browns in snow-filled Cleveland in Week 12. Winston was at his best and worst in a Monday night loss to Denver. T.J. Watt and Pittsburgh’s defense will be ready for him. The Browns are 4-10 ATS in their past 14 games and 1-19 straight up in their past 20 games in Pittsburgh.
STEELERS: 26-17
Las Vegas (2-10) at Tampa Bay (6-6)
Line: Buccaneers minus 6 1/2
Baker Mayfield has the Buccaneers in position for a fourth straight NFC South title. They can’t overlook inferior opponents, especially after a close call in Carolina. Aidan O’Connell set the Raiders up for an upset over Kansas City only to have coach Antonio Pierce mess up clock management. Maxx Crosby could make things difficult for Mayfield.
BUCCANEERS: 23-17
Seattle (7-5) at Arizona (6-6)
Line: Cardinals minus 2 1/2
The Seahawks and Cardinals are facing off for the second time in three weeks with the NFC West on the line. Seattle enters on a three-game winning streak, including a 16-6 victory over Arizona. The up-and-down Cardinals have lost two in a row after a four-game winning streak. They’re 8-4 ATS this season and 1-1 as home favorites. Kyler Murray has 1,037 yards passing, 195 yards rushing, seven TD passes and one interception for a 102.9 passer rating in his past four home starts vs. Seattle. But Arizona has lost six in a row in this series.
CARDINALS: 24-20
Chicago (4-8) at San Francisco (5-7)
Line: 49ers minus 4
The defending NFC champion 49ers are beat up and desperate for a victory after getting outscored 73-20 in the past two losses. They won’t have Christian McCaffrey the rest of the season. Nick Bosa and Trent Williams have missed two games in a row. It’s now or never for San Francisco. The Bears have lost six in a row and Thomas Brown will make his debut as interim coach. Caleb Williams is taking care of the ball, setting a rookie record with 232 straight passes and counting without an interception.
49ERS: 26-20
Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) at Kansas City (11-1)
Line: Chiefs minus 4
The Chargers have lost six straight to the Chiefs, including a 17-10 loss at home on Sept. 29. Jim Harbaugh has built a tough, physical team that’s in position to make the playoffs. The two-time defending champion Chiefs are barely winning games, with five going down to the final play. They should’ve lost last week but the Raiders botched the clock. Justin Herbert and the rest of Los Angeles’ offense need to get on track after winning a game without an offensive TD. The Chiefs have been vulnerable on defense lately.
CHIEFS: 23-22
Cincinnati (4-8) at Dallas (5-7)
Line: Bengals minus 5 1/2
The Bengals are wasting an excellent season from Joe Burrow, who has 30 TD passes and only five interceptions. It’s rare to see a team with a .333 winning percentage favored on the road against an opponent with a better record. That’s the Burrow effect. It helps to have Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, too. The Cowboys have shown fight in consecutive wins over the Commanders and Giants. They can’t run the ball well enough to keep Burrow and Co. off the field.
BENGALS: 30-20
Last week: Straight up: 13-3. Against spread: 8-8.
Overall: Straight up: 134-71. Against spread: 105-88-2.
Prime-time: Straight up: 31-12. Against spread: 22-20-1.
Best Bet: Straight up: 9-4. Against spread: 8-5.
Upset Special: Straight up: 7-6. Against spread: 7-6.
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