DETROIT – The Detroit Lions are in the heat of two playoff races heading into December: the NFC North and the No. 1 seed.
Despite 10 straight wins and an 11-1 record, the Lions only have a one-game lead in both of those races. The Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles are both 10-2 with five games left on the schedule.
Let’s assume the Lions don’t fall apart down the stretch -- they’ve certainly showed no signs of weakness over the past two months. As long as they win at least three of their last five games, here’s where they can end up:
4-1 with loss to Packers
- Outcome: Lions get No. 1 seed if Eagles lose again or No. 2 seed if Eagles win out.
A loss to the Packers is the worst-case scenario if the Lions are going to finish 4-1, but it’s still not a bad outcome.
The Lions would win the NFC North no matter what, thanks to a Week 18 win over the Vikings. So they would lock up at worst the No. 2 seed in the conference.
If the Eagles were to lose even a single game down the stretch in this scenario, the Lions would lock up the No. 1 seed.
But if the Eagles finish 5-0, they would earn the No. 1 seed due to the common opponents tiebreaker. The Lions would have losses against the Buccaneers and Packers, while the Eagles would only have a loss against the Buccaneers (since the Lions didn’t play the Falcons, the Eagles' other loss).
NOTE: Common opponents for the Lions and Eagles are the Packers (Lions will have played them twice), Buccaneers, Jaguars, Cowboys (Eagles will have played them twice), and Rams.
The tiebreaker would go to common opponents because both the Lions and Eagles would finish 10-2 in conference games.
As the No. 2 seed, the Lions would be in line to host wildcard and divisional round games at Ford Field, but would have to travel to Philadelphia for the NFC Championship Game, should the Eagles win their own divisional round game.
4-1 with loss to Bills
- Outcome: Lions get No. 1 seed in NFC.
This is basically the same as going 5-0. If the Lions lose to the Bills but win their other four games, they are guaranteed to have the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
A head-to-head win in Week 18 would knock out the Vikings and secure the NFC North, obviously, but on top of that, the Lions would finish 11-1 in the NFC.
The best the Eagles can do is 10-2 in the conference, since they already lost to the Buccaneers and Falcons, so the Lions would win the tiebreaker.
4-1 with loss to Bears
- Outcome: Lions almost certainly get No. 1 seed, but could fall to No. 2 seed.
Losing to this Bears team would be annoying, but this isn’t a bad outcome for Detroit.
The Lions would lock up the NFC North with a win over the Vikings, but the Eagles could force a tie if they win out.
In that scenario, both teams would be 10-2 in the NFC and 5-1 against common opponents, so the tiebreaker would move to strength of victory.
NOTE: Right now the Lions lead the Eagles in strength of victory .493 (66-68) to .418 (51-71). In other words, the teams the Eagles have defeated need to be 15 games better than the teams the Lions have defeated in the next five weeks to tie this metric.
If the Lions finish 4-1 with a loss to the Bears, they would add wins against the 9-3 Packers, the 10-2 Bills, the 5-7 49ers, and the 10-2 Vikings to their strength of victory. Obviously, those teams (as well as teams the Lions beat earlier in the season) will win and lose other games in the meantime, but let’s focus on what we can actually calculate right now.
Those four wins would improve the Lions' strength of victory to 100-82, while the Eagles' 5-0 finish would drop their strength of victory to 78-105.
NOTE: The reason the Eagles' strength of victory includes one more game than the Lions' strength of victory is because the Ravens and Commanders (who the Eagles will have played twice) haven’t had their bye weeks yet (Week 14), while only two of the Lions’ single-game opponents (Texans and Colts) haven’t had their bye weeks yet (Week 14).
There’s almost no possible way the Lions could lose that lead in strength of victory, but it’s technically possible. Take out the Jaguars, Rams, one of the Packers games, and one of the Cowboys games, and this is what the Eagles would need to happen:
- This group of teams: Saints, Browns, Giants (double counted), Bengals, Cowboys, Commanders (double counted), Ravens, Panthers, and Steelers.
- Would need to finish with a combined record 22.5 games better than this group of teams in the final five weeks: Cardinals, Seahawks, Vikings (double counted), Titans, Packers, Texans, Colts, Bears, Bills, and 49ers.
In other words: Not happening. The Lions would almost certainly get the No. 1 seed.
4-1 with loss to 49ers
- Outcome: Lions almost certainly get No. 1 seed, but could fall to No. 2 seed.
This is basically the same situation as the one above, with the Lions losing to the Bears.
The Lions would lock up the NFC North and go to the strength of victory tiebreaker against the Eagles. The only difference is they would add a second Bears win to their strength of victory (since they would have beaten the Bears twice) and remove the 49ers from their strength of victory (since they wouldn’t have defeated the 49ers).
The Lions' strength of victory would fall to 99-83, since the Bears are one game worse than the 49ers. If the Eagles go 5-0, their strength of victory would still be 78-105.
Here’s what the Eagles would need to happen to get the No. 1 seed in this scenario:
- This group of teams: Saints, Browns, Giants (double counted), Bengals, Cowboys, Commanders (double counted), Ravens, Panthers, and Steelers.
- Would need to finish with a combined record 21.5 games better than this group of teams in the final five weeks: Cardinals, Seahawks, Vikings (double counted), Titans, Packers, Texans, Colts, Bears (double counted), and Bills.
It’s a fraction more likely for the Eagles, but this is still pretty much a statistical guarantee for the Lions to get the No. 1 seed.
4-1 with loss to Vikings
- Outcome: Lions almost certainly get No. 1 seed, but could fall to No. 2 seed.
This would muddy the waters, because a loss to the Vikings raises the possibility that the Lions would finish in a tie for the NFC North. But the tiebreaker would guarantee a Lions division title.
If the Vikings finish 5-0 and the Lions go 4-1 with a loss to the Vikings in Week 18, both teams would be 15-2, and the head-to-head would be split.
The tiebreaker would move to divisional record, and both teams would be 5-1. Then it goes to records against common opponents, and this is where the Lions get the edge.
The Lions and Vikings would both have only one loss that isn’t against each other. The Lions lost to the Buccaneers and the Vikings lost to the Rams.
Fortunately for Detroit, the Vikings don’t play the Buccaneers, so that loss doesn’t count against the common opponents tiebreaker. But the Lions beat the Rams in Week 1, so the Vikings' loss is more costly.
In terms of the race for the NFC, the tiebreaker would once again move to strength of victory. The Lions' strength of victory record would fall to 94-88, compared to the Eagles' 78-105.
Here’s what the Eagles would need to get the No. 1 seed in this scenario:
- This group of teams: Saints, Browns, Giants (double counted), Bengals, Cowboys, Commanders (double counted), Ravens, Panthers, and Steelers.
- Would need to finish with a combined record 16.5 games better than this group of teams in the final five weeks: Cardinals, Seahawks, Vikings, Titans, Packers, Texans, Colts, Bears (double counted), Bills, and 49ers.
It’s not as bad to need 16.5 games, but that’s still likely not happening, especially since the Eagles would be counting on teams that really stink like the Saints, Browns, Giants (twice, no less!), and Panthers. Meanwhile, the Lions would have help from the Seahawks, Vikings, Packers, Texans, and Bills.
3-2 with losses to Packers and Bills
- Outcome: Lions would get No. 2 seed if Eagles win out or only lose to Steelers, or No. 1 seed if Eagles lose at least one more NFC game.
The Lions would be 14-3, and that would be good enough to win the division. They would beat the Vikings head-to-head, and the Packers and Vikings still have to play, so a three-way tie for the North is out of the question.
If they tied with the Vikings in this scenario, the Lions would win the division because of a 2-0 record in head-to-head games against Minnesota.
If they tied with the Packers, the Lions would win the tiebreaker due to divisional record. In this scenario, the Lions would be 5-1 in the NFC North, while the Packers would be 4-2, thanks to a Sept. 29 loss against the Vikings.
So we’ve established that the Lions would still win the NFC North in this scenario. But what about the race for the No. 1 seed?
If the Eagles finish 5-0, obviously, there would be no need for a tiebreaker, since they’d be a game ahead of the Lions at 15-2.
If the Eagles finished 4-1 with a loss to the Panthers, Commanders, Cowboys, or Giants, the Lions would get the No. 1 seed. That’s because the Lions would be 10-2 in NFC games, while the Eagles would be 9-3.
But if the Eagles finished 4-1 with a loss to the Steelers, they would win the tiebreaker because it would move to common opponents, and their win over the Cowboys would make them 5-1 in those games, while the Lions' loss to the Packers would drop them to 4-2.
3-2 with losses to Packers and Bears
- Outcome: Lions would likely get No. 2 seed but could also get the No. 1 seed (if Eagles lose to Cowboys) or No. 5 seed (almost impossible).
Again, there’s no chance for a three-way tie in the North because of the remaining head-to-head meetings, and again, the Lions would win a tiebreaker over the Vikings due to the sweep.
But the possible Lions-Packers tiebreaker goes a step further in this scenario because the NFC North records would be the same due to Detroit’s loss in Chicago.
The Lions and Packers would both be 4-2 in the division, so the tiebreaker would move to record in common games. The Packers don’t play the Buccaneers and the Lions don’t play the Eagles, so that tiebreaker would also be dead even.
Both teams would be 9-3 against the NFC, and you know what that means: The tiebreaker moves to strength of victory.
Green Bay’s strength of victory is even worse than Philadelphia’s, at .409 -- a record of 45-65.
Wins in their final five games would improve that strength of victory to 81-89, compared to the Lions' 91-79 -- a clean 10-game lead.
We can factor in five more wins for the Lions' strength of victory since the Packers would go 5-0. The Packers would add 3-2 to their SOV for the Lions' finish. Add a loss to each for the Lions beating the Bills and the Packers beating the Saints (for their own head-to-head wins against non-common opponents).
So the Lions would be at 96-80 and the Packers would be at 84-92. We can remove the common opponents and head-to-head wins from the equation, since they would cancel out for both teams.
So to tie the Lions in strength of record, the Packers would need:
- This group of teams: Dolphins, Bears, and Saints.
- To finish with a combined record 12 games better than this group of teams in the final five weeks: Vikings, Cowboys, and Bills.
That’s almost statistically impossible, since a trio of teams can only play 15 games, and the Packers would need their trio to be 12 games better in those 15 games.
So the Lions would probably win the NFC North. But what about the No. 1 seed?
If the Eagles finished 4-1 with losses to the Panthers, Commanders, or Giants, they would still get the No. 1 seed because of the common opponents tiebreaker (Lions loss to Packers would be the difference). A loss to the Steelers would give the Eagles the tiebreaker based on NFC record.
But if the Eagles lose their rematch with the Cowboys, both teams would be 4-2 in common opponent games, and the tiebreaker would go to strength of victory, which we’ve established leans heavily in the Lions' favor.
So, if the Eagles lost to the Cowboys in this scenario, the Lions would get the No. 1 seed (as long as their strength of victory leads over the Packers and Eagles didn’t flip). Otherwise, the Lions would get the No. 2 seed.
3-2 with losses to Packers and 49ers
- Outcome: Lions would likely get the No. 2 seed, but would likely get No. 1 seed if Eagles lose to Cowboys.
Nothing changes in this scenario for the NFC North. The Lions would eliminate the Vikings in Week 18 and win a potential tiebreaker with the Packers due to divisional record.
So the NFC North would be locked up. But the Lions would again need some help from the Cowboys.
If the Eagles went 4-1 with a loss to the Steelers, they would beat the Lions in a tiebreaker based on NFC record. If they lost to the Panthers, Commanders, or Giants, they would beat the Lions based on record against common opponents.
Only a loss to the Cowboys would drop the Eagles into a strength of victory tiebreaker that favors Detroit. So in this scenario, the Lions would be the No. 2 seed unless the Cowboys beat the Eagles in Week 17, in which case the Lions would get the No. 1 seed (due to SOV).
3-2 with losses to Packers and Vikings
- Outcome: Lions get No. 2 seed or No. 5 seed (if Vikings win division), or No. 1 seed (if Lions win division and Eagles lose to Cowboys).
OK, deep breath. This one brings some awkward NFC North scenarios to the table. Let’s break out some Bolded And Underlined Headings.
Vikings beat Packers and Bears:
In this scenario, if the Vikings beat the Packers at home in Week 17, in addition to winning Week 18 at Ford Field, then they would clinch the NFC North as long as they beat the Bears in Week 15 and either the Falcons (Week 14) or Seahawks (Week 16).
Why? Because the Vikings would be at worst 14-3 with a better divisional record than the Lions.
The Packers would have at least four losses, so they would fall beneath tiebreaker consideration.
Obviously, if the Vikings finished 5-0, they wouldn’t even need a tiebreaker to win the North.
In this instance, the Lions would automatically get the top wildcard spot in the NFC and be the No. 5 seed.
Vikings beat Packers but lose to Bears:
If the Vikings finish 14-3 in this scenario, but their loss is to the Bears, it leaves the Lions and Vikings tied at 4-2 in the division.
Thanks to that Rams loss by the Vikings, the Lions would win the division through the common opponents tiebreaker.
Packers beat Vikings, both finish 14-3:
If the Lions lose to both the Packers and Vikings, they would be 14-3 with a 4-2 record in the NFC North.
Let’s say the Packers win out. They would finish 14-3 with a 4-2 record against the NFC North.
Let’s say the Vikings' only loss down the stretch is to the Packers. They would finish 14-3 with a 4-2 record against the NFC North.
See where I’m going here? We have a three-way tie with identical head-to-head and divisional records. That means it goes to common games.
Once again, the Rams would come through for the Lions. That would be the only non-divisional loss by any of these three teams against their mutual opponents, so the Vikings would be eliminated from the tiebreaker.
The tiebreaker would then start from the beginning for just the Lions and Packers. Everything would be tied until strength of victory, which we’ve established heavily favors the Lions.
So a three-way tie would almost certainly end with the Lions atop the NFC North.
Packers beat Vikings, no 3-way tie:
If the Packers win out and finish in a 14-3 tie with the Lions that doesn’t involve the Vikings (because the Vikings lost an additional game along the way), that strength of victory tiebreaker would still be the trump card for the Lions.
What about the No. 1 seed?
If the Lions end up winning the NFC North, what about the battle for the top seed?
Since the Lions lose to the Packers in this scenario, the Eagles would either have to lose to the Cowboys or lose two of their final five games to give the Lions a chance at the No. 1 seed.
Like in the previous scenario, an Eagles loss to the Cowboys would most likely result in the Lions getting the No. 1 seed. Otherwise, the Lions would either be No. 2 or No. 5.
3-2 with losses to Bills and Bears
- Outcome: Lions would get No. 2 seed if Eagles win out or No. 1 seed if Eagles lose at least one more game.
Even though this includes a division loss, the Lions would easily win the NFC North thanks to head-to-head sweeps over the Packers and Vikings.
So the No. 2 seed would be the worst-case scenario. But any slip up by the Eagles would hand the top spot in the NFC back to Detroit.
If the Eagles lost to the Panthers, Commanders, Cowboys, or Giants, they would lose the tiebreaker to Detroit due to conference record. If they lost to the Steelers, the tiebreaker would eventually go to strength of victory.
On top of the lead the Lions already have in strength of victory, missing a chance to add the Steelers (currently 9-3) to that metric would make it an even steeper climb for the Eagles.
3-2 with losses to Bills and 49ers
- Outcome: Lions would get No. 2 seed if Eagles win out or No. 1 seed if Eagles lose at least one more game.
The Lions would finish a perfect 6-0 in the NFC North and run away with the division title.
Like in the previous scenario, the Lions would be locked into the No. 2 seed if the Eagles finished 5-0, or jump to the No. 1 seed if the Eagles lost any of their remaining games (assuming the SOV doesn’t flip if Eagles' only loss is to Pittsburgh).
3-2 with losses to Bills and Vikings
- Outcome: No. 2 seed if Eagles win out and Vikings don’t, or No. 1 seed if both Eagles and Vikings lose at least once, or No. 5 seed if Vikings win out.
If the Vikings win out in this scenario, then they would clinch the NFC North with that Week 18 head-to-head win over the Lions at Ford Field.
Talk about a heartbreaker. But any loss by the Vikings in the four games leading into that matchup would swing the division back in the Lions' favor.
The Vikings would drop into a tie with the Lions at 14-3, and that pesky Rams loss would once again come back to haunt them in the common opponents tiebreaker.
Unless the Vikings' loss came to the Bears or the Packers. Then the tiebreaker wouldn’t even get to common opponents and the Lions would win due to divisional record. But the point still stands.
If the Lions do win the division in this scenario, then the circumstances around the No. 1 seed remain the same: If the Eagles lose at least once, the Lions get the top spot (as long as SOV doesn’t flip). If the Eagles win out, the Lions fall to No. 2.
3-2 with losses to Bears and 49ers
- Outcome: Lions get No. 2 seed if Eagles win out or only lose to Steelers, or No. 1 seed if Eagles lose at least one NFC game.
The Lions would lock up the NFC North in this scenario thanks to head-to-head sweeps of the Packers and Vikings.
But three NFC losses would add a complication to the battle for the No. 1 seed: The Eagles would need to lose to an NFC team to get the Lions back in the tiebreaker.
A loss to the Steelers would leave the Eagles with a 10-2 record in the NFC, while the Lions would be 9-3.
But if the Eagles were to lose to the Panthers, Commanders, Cowboys, or Giants, the Lions would be back in the driver’s seat, thanks to the strength of victory margin.
3-2 with losses to Bears and Vikings
- Outcome: No. 5 seed if Vikings win out or only lose one game to either Falcons or Seahawks; No. 2 seed if Vikings lose twice or lose to Packers or Bears; No. 1 seed also in play
I’m sure you can see a trend: If the Lions lose two games and one of them is that Week 18 rematch with the Vikings, the NFC North depends on what the Vikings do between now and then.
Obviously, if the Vikings win out, they would be 15-2 and win the NFC North, so the Lions would be the No. 5 seed.
A loss to the Bears would also put the Lions in a bind if the Vikings were to lose to the Falcons or Seahawks. While both the Lions and Vikings would be 14-3, the Vikings would win the North due to a superior divisional record (5-1 vs. 4-2).
But if the Vikings were to lose to the Bears or the Packers before beating the Lions in Week 18, the divisional records would be tied, and the Lions would win the North because of the common opponents tiebreaker (shoutout Rams).
If the Lions win the North in this scenario, they need the Eagles to lose an NFC game -- so not the Steelers game -- to get the No. 1 seed (again, SOV permitting).
3-2 with losses to 49ers and Vikings
- Outcome: No. 5 seed if Vikings win out, No. 2 seed if Vikings lose at least once; No. 1 seed also in play
Like with the last scenario, the Vikings could clinch the NFC North by winning their final five games, as long as the Lions lose once in between.
On the flip side, in this scenario, if the Vikings dropped either the Bears or Packers game before Week 18, the Lions would still win the North due to divisional record (5-1 vs. 4-2).
Even if the Vikings were to lose to the Seahawks, they’d lose the common opponents tiebreaker in this scenario, because although the Lions would have lost to the 49ers -- a team the Vikings beat in Week 2 -- the Vikings would have lost to both the Rams and Seahawks -- giving the Lions the edge.
Could this weekend’s Falcons-Vikings game be the wildcard? If the Vikings lose to the Falcons and then win out, while the Lions lose to the 49ers, then the two teams would be tied in record, divisional record, record against common opponents, and conference record.
That means -- you guessed it! -- one last strength of victory breakdown.
Since this is the only scenario that brings strength of victory into a Lions-Vikings conversation, we’ll skip the current SOV and skip to what it would be in this specific case.
The Lions' SOV would be 89-81. We can add 4-1 to that for the Vikings and an extra loss for the Bills.
The Vikings' SOV would be 79-91. We can add 3-2 to that for the Lions and an extra win for the Falcons.
So the Lions would be at 93-83, while the Vikings would be at 83-93.
Let’s cancel out the common opponents and the head-to-head wins (since the two teams would have the same record).
So here’s what the Vikings would need to tie the Lions in strength of victory:
- This group of teams: Giants, 49ers, and Jets.
- Would need to finish with a combined record 10 games better than this group of teams in the final five weeks: Rams, Cowboys, and Bills.
Considering the Giants and Jets are a combined 5-19, I’m skeptical of the Vikings' chances here. The Lions are a virtual guarantee to win the SOV tiebreaker once again.
So the Lions would probably win the North in this scenario as long as the Vikings don’t win out. Then the race for the No. 1 seed would be the same as the previous scenario: As long as the Eagles lose at least one of their four remaining NFC games, the Lions would win the tiebreaker (as long as SOV doesn’t flip).
