DETROIT – The Detroit Lions might have the best record in the NFL, but they can’t afford to slip up Thursday against the Packers.
This rematch with Green Bay is by far the biggest game left on Detroit’s schedule, and it’s not just because these teams are division rivals.
Lions can bury Packers in division race
If the Lions beat the Packers on Thursday, they’ll have a three-game lead over them in the division and also hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
That means the Lions would have to finish the season 0-4 and the Packers would have to go 4-0 for the Packers to win the NFC North.
So, yeah, it would be nice to remove a key player from the division race. But that’s not the only reason this game is so important.
1-game lead in division
Even though the Lions haven’t lost since mid-September, they have absolutely no room for error in the standings.
Minnesota, against all odds, has ripped off five straight wins since dropping back-to-back games to the Lions and Rams in October.
Sure, the Vikings only beat the Jaguars by five points, the Bears in overtime, and the Cardinals by one point. But wins don’t have to be pretty in the NFL. The end result is a 10-2 record, and the Vikings are in prime position to strike if the Lions slip up.
But the divisional implications of this Packers game go well beyond the current standings.
Division tiebreaker
Let’s say the Lions lose their rematch with the Vikings in Week 18 because, well, Vikings games are bizarre and anything can happen.
A loss to the Packers would be the potential Achilles heel for the Lions in a tiebreaker scenario with the Vikings because after head-to-head results (which would be tied 1-1), the next tiebreaker is overall divisional record.
The Vikings have already gone on the road and beat the Packers and the Bears, so their only North loss came against the Lions.
If the Lions drop this game against the Packers, then it’s very unlikely that they’ll go into Week 18 with the North already locked up. At the very least, they would give the Vikings control of their own destiny once again.
That would put a lot of weight on one game and leave the Lions a bit vulnerable. Sweeping the Packers would go a long way toward eliminating a weakness.
Race for No. 1 seed
As I was going through all the tiebreaker scenarios yesterday for this playoff seeding story, I realized just how important the Packers game is for the Lions in their battle for the No. 1 seed.
See, the Philadelphia Eagles have already beaten the Packers this year, so if the Lions lose on Thursday, it’ll hurt them in the common opponents tiebreaker.
Since the Lions and Eagles don’t play head-to-head and their conference records would be the same if the Lions fall to the Packers, common opponents would determine the No. 1 seed.
Right now, the Eagles and Lions have both lost to the Buccaneers, so their records against common opponents are even. But if the Lions lose to the Packers, they’ll either need:
- To win out and the Eagles lose at least one game.
- To finish 3-1 and the Eagles lose to the Cowboys.
It’s a tall order to ask the Lions to finish the season 16-1, but losing the Packers game would be specifically problematic. Why? Because then the Lions might end up needing the Cowboys.
Yuck.
Nobody here wants to root for the Cowboys. But more importantly, the Cowboys aren’t likely to go into Philadelphia and beat the 10-2 Eagles.
Best for the Lions to just avoid that situation entirely.
Final thoughts
It’s not the end of the world if the Lions lose to the Packers -- they would still be 11-2, after all.
But it would be a major blow to their hopes of getting the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and that’s a very, very important prize. The Lions could desperately use a bye week in the postseason, and if they do meet the Eagles, they’d much rather do so in the friendly confines of Ford Field than outdoors on the road in Philadelphia.
The Lions are a lock to make the playoffs and can win the NFC North even without beating the Packers. But they would be much better positioned for a Super Bowl run if they win on Thursday.
