DETROIT – The Detroit Lions will be in the playoffs -- that became official late Thursday night when they beat the Packers on a last-second field goal.
But there’s still plenty to sort out between now and the end of the regular season. The Lions have four games left, and they could end up anywhere from a first-round bye to the final wildcard spot.
Let’s take a look at whether each playoff seed is attainable for the Lions:
No. 1 seed
- Is it possible?: Yes.
This one’s pretty straightforward, right? The Lions are currently sitting atop the NFC standings, and if they beat the Bears, 49ers, and Vikings the final three weeks of the season, they’re guaranteed to end up with the No. 1 seed.
Next week’s game against the Buffalo Bills could be a Super Bowl preview, but it’s actually the least meaningful game left on the Lions' schedule. Since the Philadelphia Eagles have two losses to NFC teams, the Lions would win the tiebreaker for the top seed if they lost to the Bills and won their final three games (since the Bills are in the AFC).
Detroit doesn’t necessarily have to be perfect to get the top seed, but the Eagles and Vikings are both only one loss behind, so there’s absolutely no breathing room after the Bills game.
No. 2 seed
- Is it possible?: Yes.
If the Lions win the NFC North but the Eagles get the No. 1 seed, the Lions will host a wildcard round game at Ford Field and then another in the divisional round if they advance.
But there’s a big difference between playing a possible NFC Championship Game in front of the raucous home fans at Ford Field and going on the road to the freezing outdoor conditions in Philadelphia.
The Lions are in a very good spot to end up with the top seed in the conference because of their strength of victory. As long as they don’t lose twice, they’re probably going to get that first-round bye.
But the Eagles are definitely still lurking.
No. 3 seed
- Is it possible?: No.
The No. 3 seed goes to the division winner with the third-best record, and right now, that’s the Seahawks.
The Seahawks are 7-5, which means the Lions would have to finish the year with four-straight losses and Seattle would have to rip off five-straight wins to even force a tie.
In that scenario, Detroit’s head-to-head win over the Seahawks would give it the better seed, so the Lions can’t fall to No. 3.
No. 4 seed
- Is it possible?: No.
The No. 4 seed is also not an option for the Lions because the leaders of the NFC South -- the Falcons and Buccaneers -- are 6-6.
As of last night, it’s mathematically impossible for the Lions to lose six games.
No. 5 seed
- Is it possible?: Yes.
If the Lions end up with the No. 5 seed, it means they’ve lost at least two of the final four games, including to the Vikings.
Detroit and Minnesota are separated by just one game atop the North standings, and they’ll meet at Ford Field on the final week of the season.
If the Lions win that game, they would have to go 0-3 against the Bills, Bears, and 49ers to lose the division. The Vikings would also have to beat the Falcons, Bears, Seahawks, and Packers to make that happen.
So it’s very unlikely that the Lions could win that Week 18 matchup and not win the division.
If they do drop that game and lose the North, they’re almost a guarantee to be the No. 5 seed in the playoffs -- the top wildcard team.
The No. 5 seed has to go on the road and play the No. 4 seed in the wildcard round.
No. 6 seed
- Is it possible?: Yes.
It’s not very likely, but the Lions could technically lose the rest of their games and fall below the Packers or Commanders.
Right now, the Lions are three games ahead of the Packers, and they own the tiebreaker. But if the Lions lose their final four games, they would be 12-5, and the Packers could win out and finish 13-4.
Or, if it’s not the Packers, there’s a very unlikely scenario where the Lions lose their final four games and finish in a tie with the Commanders.
Washington is 8-5 with a 5-3 record against NFC teams. If the Commanders win out, they will finish 12-5 with a 9-3 record against the conference.
The Lions are 8-1 within the conference right now, with three such games remaining. So they would be 8-4 against NFC teams if they were to lose to the Bears, 49ers, and Vikings.
NFC record is the top tiebreaker for non-division opponents who don’t have a head-to-head matchup. So the Lions would drop below the Commanders.
The Lions would still be in the playoffs, but they would fall below that top wildcard spot.
The No. 6 seed has to go on the road and play the No. 3 seed in the wildcard round.
No. 7 seed
- Is it possible?: Yes.
If the Lions lose the rest of their games and the Packers and Commanders both win the rest of their games, the Lions will be the No. 7 seed, as long as the Vikings don’t collapse leading up to Week 18.
The Packers would be 13-4, the Lions would be 12-5, and the Commanders would be 12-5 with a superior conference record.
So the Lions would fall to the final wildcard spot and hit the road to play the No. 2 seed -- likely the winner of their own division.
