DETROIT – Which team would get the No. 1 seed in the NFC if the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles both win their final three games of the season?
The Lions' 11-game winning streak came to an end Sunday with a 48-42 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Detroit got off to a slow start on offense, and that ultimately proved fatal as a defense ravaged by injuries couldn’t find an answer for Josh Allen and the Bills.
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With the loss, the Lions fell to 12-2 on the season. They’re now tied with the Philadelphia Eagles atop the conference, and the race for the No. 1 seed will be the focus of the final three games.
The Lions forfeited their sliver of breathing room with this loss, but the good news is they still control their own destiny for the NFC’s top seed.
That’s right: If the Lions beat the Bears, 49ers, and Vikings over the next three weeks, they are guaranteed to earn a first-round bye and home field advantage through the NFC Championship Game.
There are only three teams in consideration for the No. 1 seed: the Lions, Eagles, and Minnesota Vikings.
Minnesota can tie the Lions and Eagles at 12-2 with a win over the Bears on Monday night, but since the Vikings and Lions play each other in Week 18, that situation will sort itself out in due time.
But the Eagles and Lions won’t meet, which means we will have to turn to NFL tiebreakers if both teams finish with the same record.
The first tiebreaker is head-to-head result, and, as we’ve established, that doesn’t apply to the Lions and Eagles.
The second tiebreaker is conference record, and this is where the Lions still have an advantage.
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Philadelphia’s two losses came to the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- two NFC teams. The Lions lost to the Buccaneers and the Bills -- one team each from the NFC and AFC.
So if the Lions and Eagles win out, the Lions will have an 11-1 record in NFC games, while the Eagles' record will be 10-2. If they both lose once more, the Lions would have a 10-2 vs. 9-3 edge, and so on.
That would give Detroit the all-important advantage of sitting out the wildcard round and hosting the divisional and championship rounds.
Another loss would put the Lions in a tough spot because the Eagles really only have one more chance to lose (this week at Washington). They finish with home games against the lowly Cowboys and Giants.
The Lions worked so hard to put themselves in the best position to finally make a Super Bowl run. But now there’s no room for error. The next three games are some of the most important in franchise history.
