DETROIT – The Detroit Lions' game against the 49ers next week might not even matter anymore, or it could end up meaning everything.
It all depends on the Packers-Vikings game next week. Let me explain.
The Lions took care of business Sunday in Chicago, beating the Bears to improve to 13-2. A few minutes later, the Washington Commanders scored a touchdown with six seconds left to beat the Philadelphia Eagles.
Philadelphia fell to 12-3 with the loss.
Since the Lions own the tiebreaker over the Eagles thanks to a better record against NFC opponents, they only need to finish in a tie to get the No. 1 seed.
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A Lions win in either of the next two games would guarantee them the tiebreaker over the Eagles. But remember: There’s a third team in contention.
On Sunday evening, the Minnesota Vikings won in Seattle to pull back into a tie with the Lions atop the NFC North. That makes the outlook for the final two weeks a bit more complicated.
Why next week might be very important
Let’s say the Vikings lose to the Packers next week. That game is at 1 p.m. Sunday in Minnesota.
In that scenario, the Lions would go into Monday night’s game knowing that a win over the 49ers would lock up the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Here’s why: If the Vikings lose to the Packers and the Lions beat the 49ers, the Lions will be 14-2 and the Vikings will be 13-3. Then, even if the Vikings beat the Lions in Week 18, the two teams would finish with the same record.
The head-to-head meetings would be split, so the tiebreaker would move to division record. The Lions would be 5-1 and the Vikings would be 4-2 because of their loss to the Packers. So the Lions would still win the division.
And even if the Eagles won their final two games and the Lions lost to the Vikings, the two teams would finish tied at 14-3, and the Lions would win the tiebreaker, as we’ve already established.
So if the Vikings lose to the Packers on Sunday, then the Monday night game against the 49ers is incredibly important for the Lions because it would give them a chance to lock up the No. 1 seed.
That means the Week 18 game wouldn’t matter, and the week after that would be a bye. So that’s two weeks off for a team that’s been decimated by injuries -- the perfect opportunity to get healthy for a playoff run.
It also means the NFC would run through Ford Field, which has turned into the best home-field advantage in the sport.
Why next week might not mean anything
If the Vikings beat the Packers on Sunday, then the Lions' game against the 49ers is completely meaningless.
In that scenario, the Lions and Vikings would either go into Week 18 tied or the Vikings would have a one-game lead over the Lions (if the Lions were to lose in San Francisco).
Either way, the Lions would have to beat the Vikings to win the NFC North. And if the Lions don’t win the NFC North, then they are guaranteed to be the No. 5 seed, regardless of the Eagles' record.
So all eyes will be on the Vikings and Packers at 1 p.m. Sunday. That game will determine whether the Lions only need to worry about the 49ers or only need to worry about the Vikings.
That Eagles loss changed everything. Now the Lions have a little bit of breathing room.
