Here’s what Detroit Lions' path to Super Bowl looks like with win or loss vs. Vikings

DETROIT – The Detroit Lions are facing likely the biggest regular-season game in franchise history this weekend.

On Sunday night, the Lions and Vikings will close out the NFL regular season at Ford Field. Both teams are 14-2. The winner will take the NFC North crown and earn a first-round bye as the No. 1 seed in the conference, while the loser will drop to No. 5 as the top wildcard team.

Yes, the Lions have already clinched a playoff spot. But if they want to go to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history, well, let’s just say they would definitely be in better shape if they beat the Vikings.

First, let’s take a look at the NFC playoff picture heading into Week 18.

NFC playoff picture

Here’s a look at the seeding for the NFC playoffs:

1. Winner of Lions-Vikings game.
2. Philadelphia Eagles.
3. Los Angeles Rams or Tampa Bay Buccaneers
   1. Rams clinch No. 3 seed with a win over the Seahawks and/or a Buccaneers loss to the Saints.
   2. Buccaneers clinch No. 3 seed with a win over the Saints and a Rams loss to the Seahawks.
4. Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, or Atlanta Falcons.
   1. Rams clinch No. 4 seed with a loss to the Seahawks and a Buccaneers win over the Saints.
   2. Buccaneers clinch No. 4 seed with a win over the Saints and a Rams win over the Seahawks OR a Buccaneers loss to the Saints and a Falcons loss to the Panthers.
   3. Falcons clinch No. 4 seed with a win over the Panthers and a Buccaneers loss to the Saints.
5. Loser of Lions-Vikings game.
6. Washington Commanders or Green Bay Packers
   1. Commanders clinch No. 6 seed with a win over the Cowboys and/or a Packers loss to the Bears.
   2. Packers clinch No. 6 seed with a win over the Bears and a Commanders loss to the Cowboys.
7. Washington Commanders or Green Bay Packers
   1. Commanders clinch No. 7 seed with a loss to the Cowboys and a Packers win over the Bears.
   2. Packers clinch No. 7 seed with a loss to the Bears and/or a Commanders win over the Cowboys.

So, as you can see, six of the seven NFC playoff participants have been determined. The only spot still up in the air is the NFC South race between the Buccaneers and Falcons.

The Commanders, the Packers, and the loser of the Lions-Vikings game will be the wildcard teams, while the Eagles and Rams have already locked up their division.

Here’s a look at how much difference this game will make:

If Lions beat Vikings

If the Lions beat the Vikings, they’ll finish with a 15-2 record and earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

That means they would get a bye through the wildcard round, as the other three division winners host the three wildcard teams. Then, the lowest-seeded team remaining of the three winners would come to Detroit for the divisional round.

So if all three division winners -- the No. 2, 3, and 4 seeds -- won their first-round games, the Lions would host the No. 4 seed.

If one wildcard team won, the Lions would host that team. If multiple wildcard teams won, the Lions would host the one with the worst seed.

Then, with a win in the divisional round, the Lions would already be in the NFC Championship Game, which they would again host at Ford Field.

So, in total, their route to the Super Bowl would be:

1. Home game against Falcons, Buccaneers, Rams, Packers, Vikings, or Commanders.
2. Home game against Eagles, Rams, Buccaneers, Vikings, Commanders, Packers, or Falcons.

In my opinion, if the Lions get the No. 1 seed, their most likely path to the Super Bowl would be to beat either the Commanders or Vikings and then the Eagles.

If Lions lose to Vikings

Everything gets much more complicated if the Lions lose this weekend.

First of all, the obvious disadvantage is that they would have to win three games to get to the Super Bowl, instead of two. That’s a massive difference because every team in the NFC playoffs is capable of pulling off an upset.

In the wildcard round, the Lions would visit the No. 4 seed -- so either the Buccaneers, Rams, or Falcons.

Then, if they pulled off that win, the Lions would hit the road again to play either the Vikings, Eagles, Rams, or Buccaneers.

Then, if they survived the divisional round, the Lions would likely play a third-straight road game against the Eagles or Vikings, unless another wildcard team made a Cinderella run, in which case the Lions would host that team.

So their route to the Super Bowl would be:

1. Road game against Rams, Buccaneers, or Falcons.
2. Road game against Vikings, Eagles, Rams, or Buccaneers.
3. Road game against Eagles or Vikings OR home game against Commanders or Packers.

In my opinion, if the Lions are the No. 5 seed, their most likely path to the Super Bowl would be to beat the Buccaneers, Eagles, and Vikings all on the road.

Final thoughts

As you can see, there’s a monumental difference between trying to fight through the NFC playoffs as a wildcard and getting there as the top seed in the conference.

The Lions would greatly benefit from a first-round bye, not only because they haven’t had a bye since Week 5, but they’re also dealing with a ton of injuries.

The entire NFC would run through Detroit, which is a strong home-field advantage -- just ask the Rams and Buccaneers about their experience at Ford Field last postseason.

The Lions went 8-0 away from Ford Field this season, so it’s not the end of the world if they lose this weekend. But a win would save them a whole lot of trouble down the line.