DETROIT – It’s been a decade since we got to do this.
Talk about the Detroit Tigers? No no no. I’ve done that pretty much my whole life with anyone who’s willing to listen. But in the past 10 years, it’s been mostly the frustration and anger that come with constant losing.
Remember when the Tigers' most interesting player was, like, JaCoby Jones? Or when the top offseason addition was Jordy Mercer? And the times waiting for Daniel Norris to develop into an ace?
Those days are over. Now, for the first time since the spring of 2015, we get to talk about our playoff baseball team.
That’s right, I said it. I don’t care that most of the baseball world is brushing off what the Tigers did as a fluke. I don’t care that Alex Bregman chose Boston over Detroit. I don’t even care (lie) that we’re doing the Javier Baez thing again at shortstop.
The Tigers are an organization built around a superstar, young players, and top prospects. So anyone who’s not excited about the start of spring training on Saturday needs to WAKE UP AND SMELL THE PINE TAR.
It’s not a perfect roster. Far from it. But the Tigers are good enough to compete, and that’s so much more than we’ve been able to say for a very long time.
So here are my thoughts, good and bad, about this team heading into the spring. Let’s start with the pitching staff and then move to everyday players.
Tarik Skubal
The Tigers have the best pitcher on the planet. Period. No buts. If Skubal stays healthy, he’s going to win the Cy Young again in 2025, because he’s basically a perfect pitcher.
You’ve heard me drone on and on about pitching for years, so I’ll spare you the details. I can basically boil it down to four things I care about:
- Does the pitcher miss bats?
- Does the pitcher throw strikes?
- Does the pitcher induce ground balls?
- Does the pitcher limit hard contact?
Those are in order from most to least important, but for Skubal, you can put them in whatever order you want. He does them all.
Skubal ran away with the AL Cy Young award last season by winning the pitching triple crown: ERA, strikeouts, and wins. But that has very little to do with why I’m so confident he’s the best pitcher in the game.
Skubal dominates hitters with four --yes, four -- different pitches. It’s not two good pitches and then a couple of complimentary offerings. It’s four legitimate weapons.
Hitters had an expected batting average of .215 or lower against all four of his primary pitches last season -- the four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and sinker.
The fastball, changeup, and sinker each had an expected slugging percentage below .320. Meanwhile, 46.1% of the swings on his changeup and more than one-third of the swings on his slider came up empty.
Changeup? Elite. Slider? Awesome. Fastball? Just go back to the dugout.
Skubal will only be on the field once every five games. But that means for 20% of the season, the Tigers are the most dangerous team in MLB.
The return of Jack Flaherty
Am I worried that Jack Flaherty won’t be quite as dominant for his second stint in Detroit? Sure, but that’s because he was a top-10 starter in the first.
Flaherty left Detroit with a 2.95 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, 133 strikeouts in 106.2 innings, and underlying metrics to back it all up. His stint in Los Angeles wasn’t as dominant, but he was still very good until the postseason.
The Tigers -- as they have with so many pitchers in recent years -- helped Flaherty get back to his old self.
It’s a fairly simple recipe for Flaherty: use your best pitches as often as possible.
Novel concept, I know! But last year, Flaherty threw his slider and curveball a combined 49% of the time, and those two pitches have whiff rates of 36.3% and 43.6%, respectively.
Any pitcher with two elite secondary pitches only has to stay afloat with the fastball, and that’s exactly what Flaherty did. His fastball was slightly above average, even at just 93.2 mph.
The Tigers got an absolute steal in free agency. One of the best pitchers on the market, coming off a breakout season, in his late 20s, on what’s basically a one-year deal? You don’t see that very often.
Who’s No. 3?
In my mind, the Tigers have three starting pitchers capable of being aces.
Reese Olson hasn’t delivered that outcome yet, but I genuinely believe he’s capable of ascending to that stratosphere.
First of all, just look at what he’s done so far in two MLB season: A 3.75 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, and 204 strikeouts in 216 innings.
I mean, it doesn’t even take much of a leap to go from that to ace-level.
Olson won’t turn 26 until the trade deadline, and he’s got three of the four tools I look for in a starting pitcher.
His strikeout rate might not stand out, but he misses bats at a 28.7% clip -- good enough to be in the top 25% of MLB pitchers.
He also features a low walk rate and a high ground ball rate, which at the very least gives him a very high floor.
But the best part of his profile is a pair of lights-out swing-and-miss secondary pitches.
When batters swung at Olson’s slider last season, they missed 45.5% of the time. When they swung at his changeup, they missed at a 42.9% clip.
Those numbers are elite. Look up the list of pitchers who have two different pitches above 40% -- it’s basically a list the game’s elite, and Olson.
Here’s the problem: Olson’s fastball is getting hammered. Batters hit .277 off his four-seamer with a .452 xSLG. He needs to be more effective with that pitch, and then the sky’s the limit.
Again, this is a player who’s not even 26. He’s been very good at the MLB level already, and on top of that, he’s playing for an organization proven in pitching development. Don’t be surprised if Olson has a breakout year.
Get excited about Jackson Jobe
After the top three, the Tigers' rotation is a bit murky. Those final two rotation spots will work themselves out in the spring.
The most obvious candidate is MLB’s top pitching prospect, Jackson Jobe. It’s pretty clear the Tigers want him to earn a spot in the rotation, and I expect that’s what will happen.
Jobe got put in a tough spot last year. He kept his head above water in four regular-season innings, but we didn’t see the dominance he displayed in the minors. The playoffs were a disaster, but it’s hard to blame him there.
Jobe is 22 years old and only has two Triple-A starts under his belt. His minor-league numbers are excellent -- a 2.97 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings -- but the same could be said about Casey Mize and Matt Manning at one point.
Tigers fans have been burned by getting excited about pitching prospects too soon. But don’t live in fear! Jobe is a player worth getting excited over, and if he has a decent spring, he’ll be wearing the Old English D when the team heads north.
The 5 Ms
Beyond Jobe, the starting rotation options are far less exciting.
I expect the Tigers will lean toward Kenta Maeda, which won’t inspire a whole lot of confidence for the fan base.
I get it. Maeda was borderline unusable last season. But let’s just see what happens this spring.
Last year, Maeda’s stuff looked flat all spring, and the Tigers told us not to worry. Turns out, everyone should have been worried, because Maeda’s stuff never got any better.
Well, he reported to spring training earlier this year, so maybe he can build up on schedule.
One thing I appreciated about Maeda: You could tell he was more frustrated by his struggles than anyone. This guy cares. And I bet he’s been counting down the days to when he can get back on a mound.
Am I thrilled with the prospect of Maeda starting the season in the rotation? No. But the Tigers have worked magic so many times with pitchers coming off down years. I’m willing to keep an open mind.
Part of the reason Maeda might not be such a bad option: The alternatives aren’t much better.
They’re the “five Ms”: Maeda, Mize, Manning, Keider Montero, and Ty Madden.
I think Madden is in a different class than the others because he hasn’t had much MLB experience. He’s not really in the conversation.
As of now, I expect Mize, Manning, Montero, and Madden to start the season in Toledo.
It’s not hard to make the case for Mize and Manning, because they’ve struggled so much during their careers. But people seem to remember the good times more than the bad when it comes to Montero.
He’s not even 25 years old, so I’m not dismissing Montero as someone who can contribute for the Tigers someday. But I wasn’t necessarily encouraged by what I saw last season.
Montero’s strikeout and whiff rates both ranked below the 20th percentile in MLB, and his expected numbers were worse than the surface stats.
Again, Montero was pitching as a 24-year-old rookie, so there’s room for improvement. He did a decent job throwing strikes and limiting hard contact. But I need to see a lot more to get excited.
In terms of Mize and Manning, neither has shown any ability to miss bats at the MLB level, so the clock is ticking. Maybe they’ll follow the Beau Brieske path to the bullpen.
6 bullpen locks
We already have a pretty good idea what the bullpen is going to look like when the Tigers head West for the regular season.
Tyler Holton, Will Vest, Brieske, Jason Foley, Tommy Kahnle, and John Brebbia will take up six of the eight available bullpen spots.
The first four on that list were A.J. Hinch’s most reliable relievers in 2024, and Kahnle and Brebbia were offseason additions.
All in all, I feel good about this group.
My favorite under-the-radar pitcher
Last year, Olson was my favorite under-the-radar pitcher. This year, it’s Brant Hurter. But for very different reasons.
Hurter was a really good Double-A starting pitcher in 2023, but then he moved up to Toledo and stunk last year.
When he got his shot at the big leagues, though, Hurter made the most of it. He tossed 45.1 innings while maintaining a 2.58 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, mostly as a bulk reliever during the team’s magical 31-11 run.
In an ideal world, Hurter would get a chance to win that No. 5 starter spot, but I think he’s more likely competing for one of the two open bullpen positions.
Hurter doesn’t fit the typical mold of a Derick Hutchinson-backed pitcher. He’s a pitch-to-contact guy who relies heavily on a sinker, not a guy who misses many bats.
If you’re going to survive today’s MLB without swing-and-miss stuff, Hurter’s profile is a good road map. He limited hard contact, walked just six batters, and posted a 55% ground ball rate.
It was only 45 innings, so maybe a larger role will expose Hurter’s lack of overpowering stuff. But personally, I found his debut interesting enough to warrant a longer look.
Bummed about Sawyer Gipson-Long
Some of you probably just said, “Oh yeah, I forgot about that guy!”
Sawyer Gipson-Long missed the entire 2024 season due to injury, so I thought he would be ready to go by the time spring rolled around.
Well, that doesn’t seem like the case. Gipson-Long apparently won’t be a full go until midway through 2025.
If you remember his 20-inning cameo in 2023, Gipson-Long was electric. He obviously didn’t qualify for MLB percentile rankings, but if he did, he would have been above the 90th percentile in limiting hard contact, strikeout and whiff rates, and expected stats.
He’s a fly ball pitcher who can get a bit wild, so Gipson-Long has limitations. But hopefully we’ll get a chance to see him at full health soon.
What if Jace Jung is good?
Almost everyone wanted Bregman to choose the Tigers, myself included. But the third base situation isn’t nearly as bleak as last year, when the Tigers were forced to sign Gio Urshela at the very last minute.
Jace Jung hasn’t proven anything yet at the MLB level, but did everyone forget that this guy is a recent first-round pick and top-50 prospect?
Jung played with an injury that pretty clearly limited his offensive ability in 2024, and still he managed to give the Tigers a .362 OBP and 16% walk rate.
That was the only thing to like about Jung’s debut, but that’s a really good place to start. He wasn’t overmatched, and if he can get himself into favorable counts, the rest of the pieces will fall into place.
Jung hit 28 homers across two minor-league levels in 2023 and had 14 of them in Triple-A before getting called up last year.
Yes, he’s a bad defender, and probably will be a liability at third. But there’s definitely hope for his bat, and the Tigers aren’t in position to be picky.
Not doing the Javier Baez thing
Nope, not doing it this year, guys.
He’s healthy and that’s going to bring him back to the “old Javy,” right? Yeah, and oh by the way, Miggy’s in the best shape of his life.
I made my opinion on Baez clear before he even signed with Detroit, and while I understand why the Tigers are trying to generate optimism, I’m not sipping what they’re pouring.
The problems that sink Baez at the plate have nothing to do with injury. He has some of the worst plate discipline in the sport, and no surgery is going to fix that.
Maybe Baez really will turn around a half-decade-long trend of decline in his age-32 season. If so, I’ll happily eat crow.
What if Spencer Torkelson has a big spring?
I really, really, really hope this happens, because I’m fascinated to see how the Tigers would handle it.
Right-handed power is the primary missing ingredient in the Tigers' lineup, so if Spencer Torkelson reverts to his second-half-of-2023 form, how can they possibly keep him off the roster?
But on the other hand, how can they possibly keep him?
The Tigers have already committed to moving Colt Keith -- who received what’s essentially a nine-year contract -- to first base. And Gleyber Torres isn’t moving off second base.
Kerry Carpenter is going to be the primary designated hitter, and I don’t think the Tigers are going to keep Torkelson around just to play the short side of a platoon.
So where does he fit? I really wish I could ask Scott Harris about this hypothetical scenario.
Gleyber Torres addition
The right-handed bat to replace Torkelson in the lineup is Torres, and even though it could indirectly lead to an awkward traffic jam on the right side of the infield, I love this addition for the Tigers.
Torres is at worst an immediate upgrade over what the Tigers have had on the right side of the infield the past few years. And there’s a chance for a whole lot more.
He’s trading Yankee Stadium for Comerica Park, but Torres hit 24 and 25 homers in 2022 and 2023, so there’s some power in that bat. He’s also posted solid OBPs for two years in a row -- .347 in 2023 and .330 in 2024.
The signing might not have been a major splash, but the Tigers found an affordable way to get better. That’s the name of the game.
Trey Sweeney vs. Zach McKinstry
Does anyone else feel kind of icky about the prospect of Trey Sweeney starting the season in the minors?
Sweeney wasn’t much of an offensive threat in the 36 games he spent at the MLB level, and he was downright bad in the playoffs. But he solidified the shortstop position for the first time in years and helped the Tigers make a playoff run.
And now he’s just going to lose his job? For Baez?
It’s tough, because Sweeney can’t really even get a bench spot. He’s a left-handed-hitting infielder, and that role is already occupied by Zach McKinstry, who’s out of minor-league options.
I know, McKinstry has had some nice moments in Detroit, especially that homer in Game 4 of the ALDS.
But... can’t you kind of find a Zach McKinstry anywhere?
Maybe Sweeney is a Quadruple-A player because of his bat, but the Tigers aren’t going to find that out if he’s in Toledo. If he hits this spring, I think Sweeney should get an opportunity to be the starting shortstop.
Should Andy Ibanez join a third base platoon?
Someone who has no fear of losing their job is Andy Ibanez, who carved out a nice role as a pinch-hitting specialist against lefties.
Ibanez hit .292 with an .802 OPS in 154 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers last season. He also posted a 1.032 OPS with runners in scoring position.
The question isn’t whether Ibanez deserves a spot on the roster. He obviously does. But should he join Jung in a third base platoon?
Ibanez played 15 games at third last year. It’s not his optimal position because of arm strength, but is it better than yanking Matt Vierling from right field and reconfiguring the entire lineup?
Vierling is basically going to be an everyday player for the Tigers, and I think he fits best in the outfield. The Tigers don’t have a bunch of options at third base, so a hard-hitting, defensively challenged platoon doesn’t sound too bad.
The Kerry Carpenter vs. lefties thing
Kerry Carpenter wants to be an everyday player, so this spring, he’s emphasizing at-bats against left-handed pitchers.
Carpenter is the only bankable power source in the lineup, so I’m all for getting him as many at-bats as possible. But he has to be better in those scenarios.
In 134 career plate appearances against lefties, Carpenter has a .588 OPS with four homers and 32 strikeouts. Would you rather get that or, say, what Justyn-Henry Malloy can provide (more on that in a second)?
Hinch said this spring that benching Carpenter against left-handed pitching isn’t so much about Carpenter as it is about the Tigers' other options.
Would you give up the at-bats Ibanez had against lefties last year? I wouldn’t. So Carpenter needs to prove he can hold his own to earn more of those chances. (He went 3-for-32 with 10 strikeouts vs. lefties last season.)
Oh yeah, and Carpenter should be the full-time designated hitter. No more defense. It’s not that he’s terrible in the outfield -- his bat is just way too valuable to risk further injury. We saw what the offense looked without him for an extended period of time last year.
Justyn-Henry Malloy won me over
I’ll admit it: I was looking for any reason to believe in Malloy, and as soon as he gave me one, I jumped aboard.
Malloy has my favorite type of minor-league profile. He was an on-base machine with solid extra-base and over-the-fence power. It’s a profile that typically translates pretty well to MLB.
But as we saw with Torkelson, it’s not always a linear transition, and the same was true for Malloy. Yes, he posted an excellent 10% walk rate and almost never chased out of the strike zone, but he whiffed way too much, and his contact metrics were below-average.
Then he made the playoff roster. And took full advantage.
In 11 plate appearances, Malloy went 5-for-8 with a double, two walks, and only one strikeout. He was on base seven times in 11 trips to the plate.
That sample size is way, way too small to mean anything. But hey, at least he did it when the games mattered most.
Malloy probably needs to rake this spring to have a shot at the roster. There are only three non-catcher bench spots available, and McKinstry and Ibanez are going to get two of them.
What I know for sure is that Malloy has the tools to be the right-handed bat the Tigers desperately need. We’ll see if he can tap into them.
Wenceel Perez
We’ve talked about Sweeney and Malloy. Let’s get to the third bench guy who’s probably going to get squeezed off the roster.
Wenceel Perez is one of those players you had to watch to appreciate his value.
His stats were below-average. His metrics were downright bad. Yet, anyone who watched the Tigers' run to the playoffs knows that they wouldn’t have been there without Perez. He had a flair for the timely hit, and he put together some epic at-bats.
Working against Perez is his inability to hit left-handed pitching. Even as a switch hitter, he posted a .594 OPS in those matchups a year ago, which limits what Hinch can do in the late innings.
But he OPS’d .838 with runners in scoring position and .825 in “late and close” games (Baseball Reference).
I know, there probably isn’t a spot for Perez, because McKinstry can also play the infield. But it just feels wrong. Perez is someone I want to see on the roster because of his contributions from last year. I just don’t see how it can happen.
Can Riley Greene get even better?
OK, let’s end the player-specific sections on a more positive note. How good can Riley Greene be this year?
Detroit’s All-Star outfielder played 137 games last year -- the closest he’s had to a full season -- and finished with 24 homers, 27 doubles, an .827 OPS, and 5.4 WAR.
Greene is already on the doorstep of “superstar,” and he’s only 24 years old.
Greene could improve his all-around offensive numbers by cutting down on the strikeout rate a bit. He struck out in 26.7% of his plate appearance last season. If he could drop that down to about 23%, Greene could probably hit .280 with 30-homer power.
I don’t think Greene is ever going to be a base stealer, but he has solid game speed. And he’s a terrific left fielder.
Greene could duplicate what he did in 2024 for the next 10 years and have a Hall of Fame case, but what’s exciting for Tigers fans is that he hasn’t even reached his prime yet, so there’s room for him to get even better.
Platoons
Time to get philosophical.
The way Hinch manages a baseball team isn’t for everyone. But it essentially guarantees he’s going to get the most out of his 26-man roster.
Lefty-righty platoons aren’t going anywhere, Tigers fans. I heard a lot of frustration when, for example, the Tigers got shut down by a left-handed starter and Carpenter wasn’t in the lineup.
One of the reasons Carpenter’s numbers have been so elevated is because he’s specifically placed in situations where he’s most likely to succeed.
If you think Carpenter would have hit .284 playing every day last season, you’re sorely mistaken. Would he hit more home runs if he played more often? Yes, obviously. But at what cost?
That’s what Hinch is constantly trying to balance. If Carpenter has a .950 OPS against righties and Malloy has a .900 OPS against lefties, then using them both in those situations is what’s best for the team.
Hinch would love to have superstars at every position and never have to make tough lineup decisions. But that’s not the reality of the Tigers' roster. It’s an imperfect group with the individual pieces to make the playoffs -- Hinch just has to place those pieces correctly.
Pitching chaos
It was really fun watching the Tigers make a dream run to the postseason, but “pitching chaos” in itself is not enjoyable to watch -- at least not in my opinion.
I would much rather watch Jobe fire six shutout innings than watch Holton, Vest, Brieske, Sean Guenther, and Brenan Hanifee piece together a game one inning at a time.
It was effective, no doubt. But there’s no way the Tigers could ask that of their bullpen for a full 162-game season.
Having gone through the second half of 2024 should set the Tigers up to have an even better bullpen in 2025, though. Holton and Vest are the headliners, but think about how much confidence Hinch gained in the likes of Brieske, Guenther, Hanifee, Hurter, and others.
Leadoff hitter
Is it as simple as Parker Meadows vs. right-handers and Torres against left-handers?
Meadows spent the majority of 2024 in the leadoff spot, and that’s where he seems most comfortable. He posted a .338 OBP across 158 plate appearances at the top of the lineup.
Meadows was just as good against lefties as righties last season, but if Hinch is more comfortable moving him down in the order in same-handed matchups, Torres is a solid leadoff option.
Last season, Torres posted a .355 OBP against lefties, and his career number is .347.
Vierling -- with a career .317 OBP -- isn’t well suited to lead off, and the Tigers have hopefully moved on from putting Greene up there, too. His bat should be in the heart of the order.
Future Tigers
I know Skubal is only under contract for two more seasons, but I don’t think the window closes there. Not even close.
Harris has built the Tigers' foundation with exactly the type of players who win in today’s MLB.
For example: If you don’t know the names Kevin McGonigle and Hao-Yu Lee, you should probably learn them.
As a teenager last season, McGonigle drew 35 walks and struck out just 24 times in 271 plate appearances with Single-A Lakeland. Then he moved up to High-A and had 11 walks to four strikeouts in 14 games. Does “Steven Kwan” ring a bell?
Lee is making some noise in Lakeland already, but he won’t start the season in Detroit because he just turned 22 and hasn’t played above Double-A.
Lee played 87 games in Erie last year and slashed .298/.363/.488 with 19 doubles, five triples, 12 homers, 16 steals, 33 walks, and 69 strikeouts.
Catcher Thayron Liranzo came over in the Flaherty trade and drew 26 walks to 20 strikeouts in 26 games with West Michigan.
Josue Briceno eviscerated the Arizona Fall League with a .433 average, 10 homers, and 1.376 OPS in 25 games -- after posting a .381 OBP in Single-A as a 19-year-old.
We haven’t even discussed Max Clark and Bryce Rainer -- the organization’s two most recent first-round picks. I could go on and on.
The Tigers are loaded with minor leaguers who put together tough at-bats and get on base. That organizational depth is already starting to translate to MLB, but there’s even more to come.
We’ve seen how the Tigers can develop pitching, but now the first wave of impact bats is arriving.
