DETROIT – The start of baseball season is right around the corner, and the battle for the fifth spot in the starting rotation is the most intriguing storyline left for the Detroit Tigers.
Justin Verlander, Michael Fulmer, Jordan Zimmermann and Daniel Norris have filled the top four spots in the rotation, barring injury, but the last spot is apparently still up for grabs.
Recommended Videos
Who will earn the No. 5 spot, or has that debate already been settled? Here's a look at the three candidates.
Matt Boyd
2016 stats: 97.1 innings, 49 earned runs, 82 strikeouts, 1.29 WHIP
Matt Boyd is probably the best option for the fifth starter spot. In addition to being the best pitcher of the three candidates last season, he also indisputably offers the most upside.
In 20 appearances -- 18 of which were starts -- last season, Boyd posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio above 2.5 and a WHIP south of 1.30. That's pretty good for a 26-year-old pitcher with only two partial major league seasons under his belt.
Boyd is the only candidate in this race who is still on the upswing of his career, so last season's extended stretch of success is a promising sign for the future. From the start of July to the end of August, Body made 10 appearances, allowing just 14 earned runs, 41 hits and 15 walks over 49.1 innings while striking out 46 batters.
The Tigers went 8-2 in those 10 starts, essentially keeping their playoff hopes alive.
As a young pitcher, Boyd also went through some bad stretches. In June, he allowed 18 earned runs in 19.1 innings. In September, he allowed 14 runs in 18.2 innings despite tossing a one-run gem over eight innings against the Twins.
Boyd's tendency for the occasional disastrous outing is probably why there's a fifth starter competition going on at all. But by the end of the spring, he'll likely be the most deserving candidate for the position.
Anibal Sanchez
2016 stats: 153.1 innings, 100 earned runs, 135 strikeouts, 1.46 WHIP
It feels like most of the momentum behind Anibal Sanchez is built on the memory of him winning the American League ERA title four seasons ago. But that player is gone, if the last two years are any indication of what's to come.
Since he allowed four home runs over 126 innings in 2014, Sanchez has served up 59 home runs in 310.1 innings over the last two seasons. In the first 2.5 seasons with the Tigers, he allowed a total of 21 home runs. Any way you look at it, Sanchez has at least tripled the rate at which he allows the long-ball.
Even though Sanchez gave the Tigers four quality starts in August, he was the worst pitcher on the roster analytically. He finished with a WAR of minus 1.1, which means the Tigers would have been more than a game better if they'd simply used a replacement-level player in Sanchez's place.
He just turned 33 years old, so it's unlikely that Sanchez will see a drastic improvement from the last few years. His strikeout rate was still pretty strong for a starter, so he might be better utilized as a bullpen arm who can step into the rotation for spot starts if the Tigers need him.
Mike Pelfrey
2016 stats: 119 innings, 67 earned runs, 56 strikeouts, 1.73 WHIP
When the Tigers handed Mike Pelfrey a two-year, $16 million contract before the 2016 season, I was one of the many people who asked the question, "Why?"
That question went unanswered throughout the first season, as Pelfrey posted a 1.73 WHIP and struck out fewer than 4.5 batters per nine innings. He nearly walked as many batters (46) as he struck out (56) ,despite racking up 119 innings.
The most confounding part of the deal was the second year. With young up-and-comers like Fulmer, Norris and Boyd in the system, the Tigers knew there was help right around the corner. Now, they're saddled with an $8 million pitcher for 2017 and there's essentially nowhere to put him.
But because of that money figure, Pelfrey remains in the discussion for the starting rotation.
Entering his age-33 season, Pelfrey is what the numbers say he is. He hasn't struck out more than five batters per nine innings since 2013, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio has been below 2.0 for the last four seasons. His walk rate has always been an issue, and last year he also served up 15 home runs, despite calling Comerica Park home for the first time.
Pelfrey's calling card is his long record of being an innings eater at the back end of starting rotations. But the Tigers appear to have a better starting option in Boyd, so Pelfrey might be more useful in a long relief role.