A graphic on The New York Times' website, the Needle measured in real time the probability of victory for Trump or Hillary Clinton as votes were counted. There’s no sign that the Needle will be making a reappearance on Nov. 3, which would be one change in the world of election probability gurus following the unexpected 2016 result. Nate Silver's influential FiveThirtyEight blog used a number, not a needle, for the same task four years ago but won't on election night 2020. Cohn went into election night saying Clinton had an 85% chance of winning, and that served as the Needle's baseline. At 8:02 p.m. Eastern time on election night, the Needle pointed sharply to the left, and a “likely” Clinton win.