There is a ~70% chance that one or more months during the next five years will be at least 2.7F warmer than preindustrial levels.
It is extremely unlikely (~3%) that the entire five-year mean temperature for 2020-2024 will be 2.7F warmer than preindustrial levels.
The development of near-term prediction capability was driven by the WMO co-sponsored World Climate Research Programme.
With the UKs Meteorology Office acting as lead center, climate prediction groups from Spain, Germany, Canada, China, the U.S., Japan, Australia, Sweden and Denmark contributed new predictions this year.
Combining forecasts from climate prediction centers worldwide enables a higher quality product than what can be obtained from any single source.