MIAMI – Hurricane Irma remains a devastatingly strong Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph sustained winds (just shy of Category 5 status). Since the storm will remain over water with low wind shear, and even move over warmer waters as it approaches Florida, confidence is high that the storm will maintain its strength…and possibly even strengthen a bit more.
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Today’s computer models continue a trend toward the eye making landfall in southwest Florida, and Irma then tracking straight up the Florida peninsula…a worst case scenario that brings hurricane force winds across the entire state from coast to coast, except for the western Panhandle. The tips provided in yesterday’s article for your family and friends in Florida are still valid…please share these with them:
This set of maps from our in-house high resolution model (called the RPM) shows the storm’s progression in great detail:
Perhaps more useful than the forecast radar above are these RPM wind forecasts. The orange is hurricane force winds (74 mph or greater), and the yellow is tropical storm forecast winds (39 mph or greater). There are two takeaways from these maps:
The timing of when the wind will arrive.
How very large Irma is. This storm is much larger than Hurricane Andrew. As such, conditions will begin deteriorating well ahead of the eye, so don’t just focus on the center of the storm.
Finally, there is storm surge…that massive push of water inland. This map shows projected maximum storm surge for south Florida:
This is going to be a very significant weather event. Unlike Hurricane Harvey, which was a localized wind event near where the eye came ashore, but mostly a water event, Irma will be a wind event for the entire Florida peninsula. That doesn’t mean that water won’t be important…it just means that the stronger wind field affecting a larger area will create a larger path of structural damage.
Hurricane Jose
Hurricane Jose is a major Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. It will likely get close enough to the northern Leeward Islands (that were just devastated by Irma) to give them tropical storm force wind…that’s the last thing they need. However, unlike Irma, Hurricane Jose will stay on a northwest course, and eventually recurve into the Atlantic without threatening the U.S. mainland.