Some of us received a quick shower or thunderstorm today, but overall rain totals won’t be very impressive, and most didn’t get the help needed to alleviate the very dry soil conditions. Skies will clear tonight, with lows near 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius) in the city, but cooler in rural areas. West wind at 4 to 8 mph.
Mostly sunny on Thursday…becoming partly cloudy late. Highs in the low 70s (22 degrees Celsius). Southwest wind at 7 to 12 mph.
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Thursday’s sunrise is at 7:35 a.m., and Thursday’s sunset is at 7:08 p.m.
Increasing clouds Thursday night, with showers possible late. Lows in the mid 50s (12-13 degrees Celsius).
Periods of rain are likely on Friday, with highs in the mid 60s (18 degrees Celsius). With a little luck, some of us could potentially pick up a quarter-inch of much needed rain. That’s not enough, but every bit helps at this point.
Rain chances continue Friday night, with lows in the upper 50s (15 degrees Celsius).
A few more details are emerging about Saturday’s weather, but the approaching cold front’s timing is still uncertain. Once the Friday night showers end early Saturday, I think we’ll get into a dry, warm and breezy period for the bulk of the daytime hours, with highs in the upper 70s (26 degrees Celsius). The cold front should cross the area sometime Saturday evening, bringing a line of showers with it. Obviously, there’s a lot of interest in the timing of this rain as it pertains to the Michigan – Michigan State game (and tailgates), and the available computer guidance simply does not provide me with enough confidence to try and pin down the exact timing. I’m hopeful that tomorrow I’ll start seeing some convergence in the model solutions, especially since Saturday will then be in range of some of the high-resolution models. The Local4Casters are monitoring things, and will keep you updated both on-air and on ClickOnDetroit.com!
Mostly sunny on Sunday, a nice fall day, with highs in the mid 70s (24 degrees Celsius).
Columbus Day still looks dry, with partly cloudy skies, and highs in the mid 70s (24 degrees Celsius).
Tropical Depression forms in the southern Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Depression 16 has formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast track takes the storm into the Florida panhandle on Sunday at a Category 1 hurricane (its name will be Nate), but take a look at the European and American model projections for this system:
As you can see, there is still quite a bit of difference between these two models in terms of where landfall will be. And there are some other models (not shown) that agree with the American model on a more western track. However, the European model has done a very good job with our previous hurricanes this season, so it cannot be discounted. One big concern about a possible Florida panhandle landfall is that this area is one of the most storm surge prone locations in the nation due to the ocean floor topography. The next day should tell us a lot about Nate’s eventual path…the Local4Casters will keep a close eye on developments and let you know the latest as we get more confident about the forecast.
