It was another beautiful day in paradise, with abundant sunshine pushing temperatures into the 70s. However, we didn’t get nearly enough rain yesterday to put a dent in our dry soil conditions, and the latest Drought Monitor has expanded the Abnormally Dry category to now cover more of our area. We desperately need a solid one-to-two inch rainfall to try and recharge that soil moisture.
Expect increasing clouds tonight, with showers developing, especially along and north of M-59. Lows in the mid to upper 50s (14 degrees Celsius), and calm air.
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Mostly cloudy on Friday with a shower chance all day long, although it shouldn’t rain all day. Highs in the upper 60s (degrees Celsius). East wind at 3 to 6 mph.
Friday’s sunrise is at 7:36 a.m., and Friday’s sunset is at 7:06 p.m.
Shower chances continue Friday night, but rainfall amounts don’t look very impressive at this point. Lows in the low 60s (16 degrees Celsius).
Those Friday night showers should end by first thing Saturday morning, and I think most of the remainder of the day will be breezy and warm, with highs once again pushing 80 degrees (27 degrees Celsius).
Michigan – Michigan State Game
I am developing increasing clarity on the developing weather pattern, and the only unknown right now is the exact timing of the approaching cold front. That front will cross the area with a thirty-to-sixty minute band of rain, thunderstorms and gusty winds ahead of it. As you can see in this series of images from our in-house high-resolution RPM model, this model projects the front coming through during the first half.
But this is just one model…the GFS model (not shown), for example, brings the front in during the second half. So my advice is to bring the rain gear if you’re going to the game. Temperatures will be mild, though, in the 70s during the game, so it’ll get steamy under those raincoats and ponchos. Once the front passes by, the showers and storms end for good. If the front comes through at the earlier RPM timing I showed above, then temps may slip into the mid to upper 60s by the end of the game.
Sunday and Columbus Day
Sunday looks to be another spectacular Pure Michigan weekend day, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 70s (25 degrees Celsius).
Although it’s now a bit of a close call, I’m still holding on to a dry Columbus Day for those of you with the day off, and highs again in the mid to upper 70s (25 degrees Celsius).
Tropical Storm Nate
The Tropical Depression I told you about yesterday developed into Tropical Storm Nate today. The National Hurricane Center’s forecast path takes the storm toward the general vicinity of New Orleans this weekend, probably as a Category 1 storm. However, the Gulf of Mexico waters are very warm, and the storm will encounter little or no wind shear as it moves north, so we always have to be cognizant of possible sudden intensification greater than expected.
Fortunately, many computer models are clustering on the general track forecast, as you can see here in what we call the “Spaghetti Plot,” which shows a bunch of computer model tracks on the same graphic.
Yes, fall days have been trending warmer
Have you noticed an increase in warmer fall weather in recent years? I certainly have. And now my friends at Climate Central, an independent, non-partisan climate change communications organization, have run the numbers specifically for Detroit and proved us right. As you can see on the chart below, the number of fall days with above normal temperatures has increased from an average of thirty-five in 1970 to fifty in 2016. This is consistent with the rapid warming of the planet’s overall average temperature that has been most prominent over the past fifty-to-sixty years. So is this good news, or bad news? Well, it depends upon your point of view. From a purely recreational standpoint, it’s good news. For example, I played golf with a friend this past Sunday, and it was such a spectacular, warm day (and we’ll have another this Sunday). However, warmer fall days means a possible extension of the growing season, and that’s really bad news for those with allergies, who would pay big money to have that first frost come earlier. Regardless of your point of view, the bottom line is that we’re seeing more autumnal warm days!
