DETROIT – Today will be our third consecutive day with a severe storm threat, and the Storm Prediction Center has us in the risk area both Thursday and Friday as well.
In my entire career, I don’t think I ever remember five consecutive days of a severe threat for us. Now, having a RISK of severe storms does not always translate into GETTING those storms.
Tuesday was a perfect example, as the cluster of severe storms in Wisconsin early in the day did not make it into the southwestern part of our area as some computer models suggested they might. So let’s dive into the possibilities for the next three days.
Today’s forecast
Some of us are starting today with showers and thunderstorms (not severe), but it is the cluster of storms moving southeast from northwest Michigan that we are keeping our eyes on. Those should traverse the area this morning and exit roughly between 12:00 and 1:00 p.m. There will be some severe potential with that second batch of storms, so we need to monitor it for warnings.
Once those storms pass by, we have only a chance for a scattered afternoon thunderstorm -- most of us will not see one. HOWEVER, the big key will be the warm front crossing the area. The air mass behind that front will be very unstable, and any scattered storm that fires up near that front will also have excellent wind shear available (lake breezes may also contribute to this) -- so keep an especially close eye on our app’s live radar this afternoon, because if any storm pops up, it will likely become severe. IF the front clears the area quickly, then our thunderstorm and severe threat this afternoon decreases. Since the front will be moving from west to east, the Thumb will be the last to get the front through, so this is where our best severe opportunity is today.
It will become very humid once again, with highs in the upper 80s (31 degrees Celsius). South wind at 7 to 12 mph, but gustier near thunderstorms, of course.
Today’s sunrise is at 6:53 a.m., and today’s sunset is at 8:16 p.m.
Tonight’s forecast
Warm and muggy Wednesday night, with oppressively warm lows in the low to mid 70s (22 to 23 degrees Celsius). Southwest wind at 10 to 15 mph.
Rest of week
Partly cloudy, hot and humid on Thursday, with scattered afternoon thunderstorms possible. Any of those storms have the potential to become severe. Highs in the low 90s (33 degrees Celsius), with the humidity obviously making it feel hotter.
Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday night, with lows near 70 degrees (21 degrees Celsius).
Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Friday, with any storms that develop Friday afternoon and evening having the possibility of becoming severe. Cooler but still humid highs in the mid 80s (29 degrees Celsius) due to there being more cloud cover Friday.
Showers and storm chances remain high Friday night, with lows near 70 degrees (21 degrees Celsius).
Weekend outlook
We may have some lingering showers and scattered thunder Saturday morning but, as long as the approaching cold front arrives on time, we’ll become partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs near 80 degrees (27 degrees Celsius), and you’ll notice the drier air coming in during the afternoon!
Becoming mostly clear Saturday night, with very comfortable lows in the mid 50s (13 to 14 degrees Celsius).
Mostly sunny on Sunday -- a beautiful second-half of the weekend -- with highs in the mid 70s (24 to 25 degrees Celsius).