DETROIT – If you’ve been following the upcoming snowstorm on Local 4 this week, there’s been one common theme: It’s going to be a long-duration event, with two different pieces to monitor.
Rain transitions to snow
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We still have great confidence in the first half of the event. Rain showers will develop Tuesday evening, so we’re initially going to be mild -- temperatures in the afternoon reached the mid-40s (7 to 8 degrees Celsius) -- and wet.
Then, as a cold front crosses the area, the rain will begin a transition to snow from northwest to southeast between midnight and dawn.
So, Clarkston, for example, will see the change to snow several hours before Monroe does. In fact, the complete changeover to snow in the far southeast may not even occur until after dawn.
Snow intensifies
The snow will pick up intensity during the day Wednesday, and it will really pile up, particularly between late morning and early evening.
The snow will then become much lighter, and possibly even end by late Wednesday night for some of us, especially for those farther north and west in the area.
Snow amounts through dawn Thursday will range from 6-10 inches, with the lowest totals in the far north and the highest totals in the far south.
Questions surround Thursday snowfall
You may recall in previous articles that there was great uncertainty in the second half of this event, and that concern is now justified, as some computer models are keeping Thursday’s heaviest snow south of the state line.
Those particular models do brush the southeastern part of the area, perhaps southeast of a line from Detroit to Adrian, with some light snow. But accumulations would be a few inches, at most.
Conversely, some models still bring the heavier snow band back into the area Thursday, which would obviously give us more accumulation -- perhaps another 3-6 inches.
Fortunately, since there are two pieces to this event, the first half comes with pretty strong confidence, and then we can re-evaluate the second half Wednesday.
Winter storm warning
In accordance with the above expectations, the National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning for most of us Wednesday morning through various times Thursday.
Here are the specifics:
- Genesee County: 4 a.m. Wednesday to 7 a.m. Thursday.
- Lapeer County: 4 a.m. Wednesday to 7 a.m. Thursday.
- Lenawee County: 6 a.m. Wednesday to 10 p.m. Thursday.
- Livingston County: 4 a.m. Wednesday to 7 a.m. Thursday.
- Macomb County: 4 a.m. Wednesday to 7 a.m. Thursday.
- Monroe County: 6 a.m. Wednesday to 10 p.m. Thursday.
- Oakland County: 4 a.m. Wednesday to 7 a.m. Thursday.
- Sanilac County: 4 a.m. Wednesday to 7 a.m. Thursday.
- St. Clair County: 4 a.m. Wednesday to 7 a.m. Thursday.
- Washtenaw County: 6 a.m. Wednesday to 10 p.m. Thursday.
- Wayne County: 6 a.m. Wednesday to 10 p.m. Thursday.
Stay with us on Local 4, ClickOnDetroit.com and the Local4Casters weather app for the very latest. If your kids are praying for a snow day, tell them they have to do the following right before bed to increase their chances: flush three ice cubes down the toilet, put a frozen spoon under their pillow and wear their pajamas inside out! Tell ‘em Paul Gross said so.