DETROIT – The forecast for the first half of our Mother’s Day weekend was an interesting lesson in weather forecasting this week.
Choose a model
When I show you a computer model on TV, it’s just one of many models I look at when working on my forecast. A huge part of that process is evaluating which models are best at handling what’s happening right now (let’s face it: If the models don’t get the present correct, then we don’t have much faith in the forecast), which models have the best day-to-day handling of the weather pattern, and which models are most in agreement.
The one I ultimately choose to show you is the one that I think best shows you what your weather will be. Yes, a lot of models end up on my cutting room floor!
All week long, I’ve been telling you to expect a mostly dry Saturday (with uncertainty about the Saturday morning rain chance), and a sunny Sunday. However, the models were not unanimous about the Saturday part.
In fact, one of the dissenting models was the ever-trusty European model, which had rain across the area Saturday morning, before slowly moving it out. But this was one of those occasions when I leaned away from that normally reliable model.
Things just didn’t add up in terms of how it was handling the precipitation pattern. This afternoon, the European model fell into line with the other models in ending the rain tonight. Now, only the NAM model keeps any rain into our Saturday morning -- all of the other models have us dry. So let’s ignore the NAM and get into the forecast details!
Weekend forecast
The rain pattern will continue degrading through the evening and night, with skies becoming partly cloudy late at night, with lows in the mid-40s (7 degrees Celsius) and a northeast wind at 10-15 mph.
Friday’s sunset is at 8:38 p.m., and Saturday’s sunrise is at 6:21 a.m.
Partly cloudy skies to start will become mostly sunny Saturday, with highs reaching the low-60s (16 degrees Celsius). However, it’ll still be a little breezy with northeast winds at 10-15 mph. That will keep those of you near Lakes Erie, St. Clair and Huron cooler.
If you’re near the Farmington area Saturday morning, I will once again emcee the annual opening of the Farmington Farmers’ Market in downtown Farmington, right on Grand River! Things are expected to get started at 9 a.m. Come say hi!
Clear skies dominate Saturday night. It’ll be a great night for stargazing. Lows in the low 40s (5-6 degrees Celsius).
Mother’s Day looks fantastic, with sunny skies (some of us may not see a cloud but, if we do, don’t worry. It’s just lost). Wind looks to be a little less than what we’ll have on Saturday -- generally from the northeast at 5-10 mph. Highs again should reach the low-60s (17 degrees Celsius).
Next week’s warmup
Next week’s weather still looks fantastic. We’ve been waiting for this!
Expect plenty of sunshine all week, with highs warming from the upper 60s (20 to 21 degrees Celsius) on Monday to the low to mid-70s (22 to 23 degrees Celsius) on Tuesday, to the upper-70s to near 80 degrees (26 to 27 degrees Celsius) the rest of the week!