The question usually starts coming in during the summer, with more and more people asking as we move through September and October.
By the time we get to November, EVERYBODY wants to know: what kind of winter is on the way?
Recommended Videos
Before answering that question, there is something very important you need to understand: the big difference between a forecast and a seasonal outlook.
A forecast is a specific prediction of a specific weather event or events over the near term. For example, if I am expecting accumulating snow a few days from now, then what I tell you about that event is a forecast. Or, let’s say I expect sunny skies each day next week, that’s another forecast.
I cannot forecast specific day-to-day weather a season ahead of time. NO meteorologist can. So yes, those specific forecasts you see in the Farmers’ Almanac a year ahead of time are a bunch of hooey (see my article about that here). Rather, we meteorologists explain our longer time-frame predictions in terms of the expected trends relative to long-term averages; i.e., above or below average temperature and precipitation.
And here’s something else to remember: just because an outlook says that we’ll, for example, be colder than average for December through February does not mean it will be cold for the entire winter. Remember that this is a three-month average. So, let’s say you have a cold December, a mild January, and a cold February, you then likely will end up with a below-average winter, even though you had warmer temps in January. Or, let’s say you have a slightly colder than average December, a well-above average January, then a slightly colder than average February…you could end up with a slightly warmer than average three-month period from December to February, even though two of those months were cooler than average.
Okay, so how do I develop my winter outlook? Well, it starts and ends with the jet stream: that band of strongest wind aloft that flows around the planet. The jet stream is not only the dividing line between generally warmer air to the south and colder air to the north, but it is also the general storm track. So as many things as possible that impact our jet stream pattern needs to be considered.
The most important of those “things” are El Nino and La Nina (the cycle involving these two is called El Nino–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO). Briefly, El Nino is an eastward push of warm tropical Pacific Ocean waters that pool off the west coast of South America. La Nina is a reversal of this pattern, and those warm waters are pushed westward, leaving the eastern tropical Atlantic cooler than average. There is a tremendous interaction between the oceans and the atmosphere, so El Ninos and La Ninas dramatically affect the winter jet stream pattern across North America. I also tracked a number of other circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), etc. These patterns go through what we call positive and negative phases. For example, positive phases of the NAO and AO generally bring warmer air into the eastern U.S., while negative phases trend the eastern U.S. colder.
Something else I’ve learned to consider is the extent of Eurasian snow cover and Arctic sea ice, Dr. Judah Cohen at Verisk has taught me a lot about this (you can follow him on Twitter, too).
Alright, so now that you understand all of this (and if you skipped the above just to get to this part, you’d better go back and read it), let’s dive into what I expect for this coming winter.
What Metro Detroit can expect during the 2022-2023 winter season
Since we’ll have our third consecutive winter with La Nina conditions in the Pacific, it all begins there, and I’m already seeing some consistencies with the past two winters, which had some pretty wild temperature fluctuations. For example, January 2021 was 4.1 degrees above average, while February 2021 was 4.5 degrees below average. This past winter, December 2021 was a whopping 6.2 degrees above average (our 8th warmest December on record), followed by a 5.2 degree below average January.
That’s serious weather whiplash, and I see no reason to deviate from this for the upcoming winter. Obviously, I cannot specify which parts of which months will necessarily go which way, but I feel that we’ll go through extended stretches of both warmer and colder temperatures, as opposed to the more usual fluctuations we get.
As for precipitation, I’m leaning strongly toward a wetter than normal winter. But will it be rain or snow? That depends upon that jet stream position, which will direct storms either south or west of us. West means warmer and rain. South means colder and snow or ice. And as with the temperatures discussed above, the last two La Nina-winters exhibited some pretty crazy swings, such as a paltry 6.4 inches of snow in January 2021, followed by 21.8 inches the next month.
In fact, the same thing happened this past winter, with 8.8 inches in January, then 20.4 inches in February. I feel that this upcoming winter will exhibit near average total snowfall (our seasonal average is 45 inches), but much of it coming in shorter stretches of very unsettled weather (such as last winter, when a little under half of our winter snow came in just a three week stretch in February). That means there will also be some nice long reprieves from the snow as well. I think we’ll also see more rain than we typically get in winter and probably one or two solid ice storms.
Answering the age-old question: Do I pay my snowplow guy by the plow or by the season? ❄
I have the same answer to this question almost every year, and I recommend paying by the season. Consider your snowplow service as if it’s life insurance. You’re very happy not to need it but are darn glad it’s there if you do. If you pay by the plow, and we end up with a winter with lots of snowstorms, you’ll be paying your guy a lot of money.
Conversely, if you pay by the season, your costs are fixed upfront no matter what happens this winter, and you can easily budget for that.