4Warn Weather – It’s all systems go for our significantly impactful severe winter storm. Things are rather benign this afternoon, with light wind, temperatures that have risen into the upper-30s to mid-40s (4 to 6 degrees Celsius), and mainly dry conditions.
This is your last opportunity to get out and get some things done…whether it’s to hit the grocery store, the gas station, or buy those last-minute gifts.
Here’s a specific timeline of what to expect
9:00 p.m. Thursday to 4:00 a.m. Friday:
As the evening progresses, and you can watch this yourself on the real-time radar on the 4Warn Weather App (which is color coded just like we show you on TV so you can tell the difference between rain, ice and snow), the colder air will gradually ooze eastward as low pressure passes by. The rain will change to snow, and temperatures will crash…falling immediately below freezing (by the time you wake up Friday morning, temps will be in the teens (-10 Celsius), with wind chills near zero (-18 degrees Celsius)).
This creates my first big concern with this storm: the potential for a flash-freeze. Fortunately, many people will be off the roads by then but, for those still out and about, wet roads will quickly ice over. If you’ll be out, keep a close eye on your car’s dashboard thermometer.
As soon as it reaches 32 degrees (0 degrees Celsius) and below, WATCH OUT FOR ICE. I mentioned in my article a few days ago that I vividly remember a December late afternoon many years ago when my wife and I were heading downtown for the Local 4 staff holiday party. There were some rain showers between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m., and then a strong cold front immediately knocked temps below freezing. Every freeway in the area suddenly had massive crashes that shut down the freeways. But that was also during a much higher traffic volume period than for us tonight.
The other concern, and this is my biggest concern with this storm, is that wind will increase overnight, and likely already be gusting between 40 and 50 mph by dawn Friday.
- Kim Adams explains: Why this winter storm is so dangerous (and it’s not just the snow)
4:00 a.m. Friday to 12:00 p.m. Friday:
Snow and blowing snow continue, with wind gusts between 45 and 55 mph. Temperatures drop into the upper-single-digits to low-teens (-13 to -11 degrees Celsius). Wind chills drop to -10 degrees (-23 degrees Celsius).
12:00 p.m. Friday to 9:00 p.m. Friday:
The snow may taper off a bit for the southern half of the area, but there will be more snow than not for the northern half. Temperatures in the upper-single-digits (-13 degrees Celsius), with wind chills of -10 to -20 degrees (-23 to -29 degrees Celsius). This should be the period with the strongest wind, as gusts between 50 and 60 mph are possible. There will be considerable blowing and drifting of snow, with significant reductions in visibility.
We could see true blizzard conditions at times, but the National Weather Service will not issue a Blizzard Warning unless those conditions are expected for three or more hours. At least scattered power outages are likely, so I urge you to have a plan in place to get to a friend’s or relative’s place for heat if you lose power.
Saturday:
While there may be a few lake effect snow bands still in place, they should start diminishing as the day progresses. By Christmas Eve, I don’t think there will be much snow still falling in the area, although wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph means that there still will be blowing and drifting snow. The road crews should have made some progress on the main roads by then, but I don’t know that the neighborhood streets will be plowed by then.
The ability to get to Christmas dinner may be based upon your driveway’s and neighborhood street’s condition, rather than the main road condition. We’ll start the day Saturday with lows in the low-to-mid-single-digits (-16 to -14 degrees Celsius) and wind chills potentially approaching -20 degrees (-29 degrees Celsius) in some areas. Afternoon highs will only be in the mid-teens (-8 to -9 degrees Celsius), with wind chills between zero and -10 (-18 to -23 degrees Celsius).
Sunday:
Christmas Day should be dry with mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will rise from the low-teens to near 20 degrees (-11 to -7 degrees Celsius), with wind chills generally between -5 and 5 degrees (-21 to -15 degrees Celsius).
How Much Snow?
All week long, you’ve been asking. And all week long I’ve been telling you that snow isn’t the most important aspect of this storm. But it’s still important, and you want to know, so let’s dive into that. First, understand that the snow forecast is very difficult (as I’ve explained all week) due to uncertainty on the exact timing of the changeover from rain to snow, as well as the exact placement of the lake effect snow bands that develop.
Furthermore, the wind will be blowing so hard that it will fracture the snowflakes into smaller pieces, which don’t pile up as fast. And finally, once the snow falls, measuring it in that wind will be nearly impossible…wind will be blown off of our measuring surfaces, while drifting into huge piles elsewhere. So please don’t focus on the snow amounts…just know that either you’ll be shoveling or your snow removal service will be plowing.
As for specifics, TOTAL SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY will probably range from 4 to 6 inches south of 8 Mile, with steadily increasing amounts as you head northward. By the time we get into the Thumb, double-digit snowfall is possible. And again, the wind will cause massive blowing and drifting.
Final Thought
I want to emphasize as I have all week long that travel should not take place in our area Friday. Yes, a part of the day could be “less worse” than another, but the roads will be a mess. And remember that untreated roads could have ice under that snow. This will be a very severe winter storm…a very rare storm for our area. The last time we had a storm like this was the Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011, which is also the last time we had a Blizzard Warning issued here.
The wind this time will be much worse than that storm (I just checked the records from Metro Airport…the highest gust they got in that storm was 40 mph). Snowfall in some areas will be comparable to that storm.
PLEASE be smart about this. Have a place to go if you lose power. Have a full tank of gas in your car. Have food to get you by if you’re unable to get out for a few days. And most importantly, remember that we at Local 4 have been preparing for this storm all week. We will have everything you need to know on our newscasts, on Local 4+, on ClickOnDetroit.com, and on our 4Warn weather app. If you are one of the few who doesn’t have the nation’s best weather app, you’d better get it now. The app is FREE, and easily downloadable onto your cell phone from the app store…just search under WDIV.
The real-time radar will be very helpful showing you where the rain versus snow is tonight (it’s color coded just like we show you on TV so you can easily see where the change occurs), and also where those lake effect bands are later Friday and on Saturday. And our FutureCast takes the current radar and projects the rain and snow forward into time to help you plan. Plus, we 4Warn meteorologists post short (one minute or less) videos with personal, specific messages about our weather.