4Warn Weather – Cloudy and cooler this afternoon with highs in the low 40s and still somewhat breezy with gusts possibly reaching 20 mph.
High temperatures are still trending above average. The milder air in place will limit the potential for snow accumulations with the system approaching us overnight into tomorrow.
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Tracking 2 rounds of rain, storms on Thursday
A triple point will push through Indiana late tonight. That is where an occluded front, cold front and warm front all intersect and if enough moisture wraps in from the warm sector, heavy rain and storms can develop along the fronts and wrap into the low pressure. This is the same system that makes its way into lower Michigan into Thursday bringing with it a marginal risk for storms right along the Michigan/Ohio state line.
Low-topped, fast-moving thunderstorms are possible in that region Thursday evening. As the leading edge of this system pushes into our south zone around midnight, precipitation will be rain through Thursday morning.
However, the onset of this precipitation in our northern zone could start with a brief rain/snow mix before changing quickly to rain Thursday as highs climb again into the upper 40s. We will likely be dealing with rain for the morning drive on Thursday but expect a lull in the showers midday.
A second round of heavier rain will then move in closer to the dinner hour and evening rush hour drive. Coming off a day with more spring-like temperatures, we can’t rule out some embedded thunderstorms with this line of heavier showers that could produce some thunder and even graupel (frozen ice pellets).
A cooler, but not brutally cold air mass will settle into the region in the wake of this system with high temperatures generally reaching the mid to upper 30s Friday and through the weekend. It is worth noting that we will likely see some flakes flying on Friday as this system works its way out of our area and an unsettled pattern could return by the end of the weekend in which scattered rain/snow showers should become increasingly common from Sunday into early next week.
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