4Warn Weather – Wednesday’s potential storm is a very complex forecast because the type of precipitation depends heavily on surface temperatures and how far north the expansive warm front lifts and sets up shop.
The difference of a degree or two with air and surface temperatures can have a major ramification. The main concern is ice, with heavy rain south of I-94 that could lead to flooding, whereas heavier snowfall is still expected north of I-69.
As of Tuesday morning, here is a rough timeline. Please note that the confidence of the location, timing and duration of precipitation type is still in flux as not all models are in agreement and the forecast confidence will increase today when we get within the 24-hour window of the onset of the storm.
We have a winter storm watch for most of Southeast Michigan from noon Wednesday until noon Thursday.
Winter storm timeline for Wednesday thru Thursday morning in SE Michigan:
11 a.m. -- A few flurries fall across portions of Metro Detroit with a wintry mix possible down into Monroe and Lenawee counties
2 p.m. -- There is varying model data at this point in the day. The GRAF has colder air lifting north and the wintry mix or freezing rain overspreading Washtenaw and Wayne counties with snow showers from Oakland and Macomb counties on north. It is worth noting that the Euro model has this snow line closer to Lapeer by this point in the afternoon with rain in and south of Washtenaw and Wayne counties and a wintry mix sandwiched in between. See difference in graphics.
5 p.m. -- The wintry mix moves north of M-59, still mainly snow along and north of I-69 with heavy rain showers in our south zone (Monroe and Lenawee counties).
8 p.m. -- Looks to be much of the same as we were seeing at 5PM, but the freezing rain/wintry mix looks to be a little farther north closer to I-69.
11 p.m. -- Lingering mixed bag of precipitation with stead snow into the thumb.
2 a.m. (Thursday) -- Widespread precipitation has moved out of Metro Detroit with lingering snow showers north of I-69.
Keep checking back with your 4Warn Weather team for the latest updates.
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