4Warn Weather – Southeastern Michigan is looking at a widespread and long-duration winter storm moving into the region starting on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday, bringing the entire run of winter weather into the region.
Precipitation will move into the region beginning on Wednesday. With some colder air remaining in place, the majority of Southeastern Michigan will transition into that wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet for an extended period of time.
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Read: Winter storm watch issued for Metro Detroit later this week
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for all of Southeastern Michigan except Lenawee and Monroe Counties for Wednesday and into Thursday due to the potential for significant icing potential during this period.
The criteria for a Winter Storm Watch/Warning for significant icing for Southeastern Michigan is .25″ of ice accumulation, if this was to happen, this would be a significant deal for Metro Detroit, in addition to any early snow accumulation before we change over to the wintry mix.
Locations that are in our northern tier of communities, especially along and North of I-69, have the potential to see more snow than anything, with some wintry mix moving in as well. They would see a higher impact with the snow rather than the wintry mixed precipitation.
As a strong area of low pressure moves our way out of the Midwestern United States, a warm front will close in on the region late Wednesday and into Thursday. This system will have plenty of moisture to work with as we had into the middle of the week, enough that early forecasts over the Upper Midwest are pumping out half a foot to a foot of snow or more possible through the Dakotas over through Minnesota and into Wisconsin.
The models leading into this storm are suggesting that the majority of this will be in the form of the wintry mix, freezing rain, and sleet, but it could start off as a little bit of snow on Wednesday morning. One of the big things we will watch for in this event is the persistence of precipitation coverage (how much of the area sees any type of precipitation) and how intense is the precipitation (light freezing rain vs. heavy freezing rain) to determine how much icing we do see out of this system.
One trend that we have noticed in the models we will need to keep our eye on as we go into this system is where the placement of the low-pressure system is. That will dictate how much warmer air moves into the region (one reason why we do not have a Winter Storm Watch for Lenawee and Monroe counties, as they stand the chance to see wintry mixed precipitation and then switch over to plain, cold rain), which will determine who sees what types of wintry precipitation to the north of that. Right now, we believe that this will be confined down in those areas near the Ohio/Michigan State Line, and that puts Southeastern Michigan and Metro Detroit in the favored zone for the potential of significant icing.
The National Weather Service says in their technical discussion on Monday evening:
“Exceedance of warning criteria accumulation/icing is in play for all of the areas in the Winter Storm Watch, but with substantial north-to-south adjustments possible as assessments of the surface cold layer strength and northward progress of the warm are refined in later updates.”
So here’s what we do and don’t know as of Monday Evening:
What We Know:
- Precipitation will move into the region beginning Wednesday Morning
- This will begin as snow before changing over to the wintry mixed precipitation by Wednesday Afternoon
- Precipitation continues into Wednesday Night and Thursday before exiting the area
What We Don’t Know (and Need to Watch):
- Exact Precipitation Amounts/Types: Any shift in the area of low pressure could significantly cut back or increase the amount of wintry precipitation based on if the low pressure moves north or south of the current forecasts
Stay with WDIV Local 4 News and the 4Warn Weather team, and we will keep you ahead of the latest blast of winter weather heading our way.