4Warn Weather – A very tricky forecast for Friday in Metro Detroit; A high degree of uncertainty this close to a winter storm is rare but does exist. Multiple factors could impact whether this storm is big or a bust.
Here’s what we know as of Thursday Evening. The morning commute will be fine. Dry and cool conditions; Some precipitation could move in as early as late morning along the Ohio border. But the most impactful rain and/or snow showers will be late afternoon and evening. High winds in excess of 35-45mph will add to reduced visibility during the evening commute.
Friday
We are still unsure of the exact track of the low and where the rain/snow line sets up. Model data Thursday suggested more snow than rain, with the exception of extreme southern parts of Monroe County getting more rain.
The highest snow totals appear to be west and north of Downtown Detroit. Snow totals range anywhere from ‘3-8″, and if the track stays the same as predicted, a few areas could even get a bit more. But if warm air goes a little farther north, there will be more rain and lower totals.
Another factor to consider is how much convection this system has as it moves through Texas and Arkansas and into the Ohio Valley. A great deal of moisture could be all used up by the time it gets to Southeast Lower Michigan. And there is the potential for a dry slot in the evening hours.
The bottom line is during the afternoon and evening hours, travel will become difficult with slippery roads and reduced visibilities. The National Weather Service is keeping us under a watch and not a warning because of the continued uncertainty of this storm system.
We will continue to get new model data as the storm approaches, and confidence will grow throughout the night. Join me at 11 p.m. for full forecast details.
Find the latest forecast from the 4Warn Weather team here
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