For the third week in a row at least, we are looking at the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms moving into Southeastern Michigan and that includes another high-level risk issued from the Storm Prediction Center.
As of Wednesday Morning, the Storm Prediction Center has placed areas along and South of M-59 under an Enhanced Risk for severe weather, which is a 3 out of 5 for severe weather.
Level 3 - Enhanced Risk: Numerous severe thunderstorms possible
According to the Storm Prediction Center, an Enhanced Risk for severe weather means numerous severe thunderstorms are possible and are more persistent and widespread with a few instances of very intense storms.
Under this risk, several spots will likely experience damaging winds and/or large hail. More significant winds and hail become a little more common. In these instances, a few tornadoes can be possible, possibly on the strong side in certain situations. In our area, this risk is not that common and are usually issued a few times per year.
Wednesday’s Severe Weather Setup
As a warm front lifts north into the region, we are also going to keep an eye on a potential line of thunderstorms that would develop over Iowa/Missouri/Illinois overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, and what impact it would have on us as that front lifts north into the region.
There is a reasonably high confidence that some of the upper-level disturbance (MCV) will move out of the Midwest United States into Lower Michigan on Wednesday and aid in the development of a decent amount of instability (fuel for the fire for thunderstorms). With this in mind, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in the Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms.
If the upper-level disturbance (MCV) moves into the region slower tomorrow, and becomes a bit stronger in combination with other things like shear (winds crossing in different directions in the atmosphere) and other instability parameters we look at for severe weather, this would certainly pose a formidable severe weather risk, while the amount of moisture we have in place would lend itself to the potential of heavy rainfall which could cause localized flash flooding out of some of these thunderstorms.
Severe Thunderstorm Timeline:
Until 2:00-4:00 PM Wednesday: Sunshine and clouds, warm and humid
4:00 PM-8:00 PM Wednesday: Individual thunderstorm (possibly supercell) thunderstorms develop with the capability of damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado
7:00 PM Wednesday-12:00 AM Thursday: Squall line of thunderstorms moves into Southeastern Michigan.
Severe Weather Safety Tips:
Thunderstorms produce many dangerous and severe forms of weather. Lightning, destructive winds, heavy rain and hail can all be products of thunderstorms.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe weather. Continue normal activity, but monitor weather conditions closely.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning means to seek shelter immediately and monitor conditions on radio or television. Follow all of the above instructions until the storm passes.
What To Do
- If you are outside, get into a building, car or bus.
- If you are in the woods, pick a low area under small trees.
- If you are swimming or boating, get out of the water immediately and onto land as soon as possible.
- If you are in an open area, head for low ground such as a valley or ravine, or crouch down.
- If golfing, leave the course as soon as possible and take shelter in the clubhouse.
Stay with WDIV Local 4 News and the 4Warn Weather Team for the latest severe weather information, we’ll keep you 4Warned.
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