4Warn Weather – We have a wacky Wednesday forecast ahead.
Showers could sweep through this morning, but any that do shouldn’t be severe. However, if a stronger storm does develop early today, it would likely be limited to the northern portion of the Thumb.
A warm front is then expected to push through the region later this morning in the wake of any early rain showers. The record-breaking heat dome over the Plains will gradually start to break down today, but with us right on the ridge, our forecast remains a bit tricky.
Confidence is relatively high that our southwestern communities from Livingston County to Lenawee County will see temperatures rise close to 90 degrees today. The rest of us will be in the 80s, and the Thumb will only reach the 70s.
We’ll certainly feel warmer, though, with the heat index.
Storms develop Wednesday evening
We’ll have decreasing clouds throughout the day before thunderstorms develop this evening into tonight. There is still uncertainty where exactly these thunderstorms will fire off, as they will be multicellular and scattered in nature.
Storms that do develop will likely develop rapidly and bring flooding potential with torrential rainfall.
All of southeast Michigan will be in an environment conducive for severe storm development later today. The Storm Prediction Center has us under a slight risk (Level 2 out of 5) for severe storms, with the primary threats including the possibility of large hail (greater than 1.5 inches in diameter), and wind gusts upward of 60 mph. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
Tonight’s sunset is at 8:22 p.m.
Storm motion will be northwest to southeast at 45 mph. Any lingering storms are expected to either fizzle out or move out by the mid-morning hours Thursday.
High temps, more storm chances
We’ll stay dry for at least the first half of the day on Thursday.
The heat and humidity will be the headliner: Temperatures will likely exceed 90 degrees for some of our communities, especially those south of I-69. With dew points exceeding 70, the oppressive humidity will lead to heat indices in the triple digits. We will likely see heat advisories issued for portions of Southeast Michigan for Thursday.
Then, a cold front will bring the chance for more storm development Thursday in the late afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of Southeast Michigan under a marginal risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms. We could see hail up to an inch, and wind gusts to 60 mph.
Once again, the uncertainty lies on the exact locations that will see the storm development, but they will be similar in nature to what we could see fire off Wednesday night.
Some weekend rain chances
Cooler weather will return on Friday in the wake of the cold front. We’ll have sunshine and seasonal highs around 80 degrees.
A disturbance on Saturday will keep a few showers in the forecast for the day.
Temperatures will be in the 70s through the weekend.
Lower humidity and more comfortable conditions are expected on Sunday.
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