If you love cold, snowy winters, don’t get your hopes up in Michigan this upcoming season.
El Nino will cause warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the Northern U.S. this winter season, according to the latest Winter Outlook released by the Climate Prediction Center.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released the newly updated winter outlook for 2023-2024 this week, predicting wetter-than-average conditions for northern Alaska, portions of the West, the southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic and drier-than-average conditions across the northern tier of the U.S., especially in the northern Rockies and High Plains and near the Great Lakes.
“An enhanced southern jet stream and associated moisture often present during strong El Nino events supports high odds for above-average precipitation for the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast states this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center.
What it means for Michigan
Temperatures
According to the NOAA Winter Outlook, there’s 40-50% chance Michigan will see above average seasonal temperatures through February 2024, which is the case for most of the Great Lakes region.
“Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern tier of the U.S. and much of the Far West.”
Precipitation
As far as rain, snow and all that fun winter weather, because of the warmer conditions forecasted, there’s a 40-50% chance Michigan sees below average precipitation, much less than neighbors across the Midwest.
“The greatest odds for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of the northern Rockies and central Great Lakes region, especially for Michigan and northern Ohio and Indiana.”
Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in northern Alaska, some areas of the West from parts of California to the south-central Rockies, the southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic.
About NOAA’s seasonal outlooks
NOAA’s seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are anticipated to change in the months ahead. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available November 16.
“These outlooks provide critical guidance on the upcoming season for many industries and sectors of our economy, from energy producers to commodities markets to agricultural interests to tourism,” said Sarah Kapnick, Ph.D., NOAA chief scientist. “With a strengthening El Nino and more potential climate extremes in an already record-breaking year, we’re lucky to have scientists like those at the Climate Prediction Center helping to build a Weather and Climate-Ready Nation by providing critical operational seasonal climate predictions.”