4Warn Weather – The warmer-than-average conditions across Southeast Michigan will continue to make our snow chances very scarce, if not non-existent, as we head into Christmas.
But you’re probably wondering, what are the chances of seeing a traditional white Christmas? Especially after we set a record on Halloween with one of the earliest records of at least 0.1 inches accumulation of snow! We normally stand a 40%-60% chance of seeing at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning.
Well, if you’re looking for snow, the chances of a white Christmas are looking less and less likely. It is increasingly likely that we will have more of a green Christmas than a white Christmas.
If you’re wondering why, well: The warmer-than-average temperatures we have been seeing, especially after we set a record high of 62 degrees last Saturday, are playing a factor in this.
The forecast looking ahead to the next eight-14 days, which does include Christmas, shows us having a good chance of running warmer and drier than we normally would for mid- to late December.
Is El Nino to blame?
It is difficult to tie one warm stretch of the El Nino phase, but it is likely partially to blame for the above average temperatures and the lack of snow on the ground.
The last time Metro Detroit saw an El Nino as strong as the one we are experiencing right now was back in 2015 to 2016.
A “typical” El Nino year brings an overall warmer-than-average winter to the Great Lakes, including Southeast Michigan.
Keep in mind this “warmer-than-average” talk is actually calculated by considering the average high and lows over a given season. A warmer winter season is not completely absent from snow and cold temperatures. We have seen some of these temperature swings with high temperatures only in the 20s, and even days with snow showers.
---> Related: How El Niño could impact Michigan snow, cold this winter